Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)

[Goaldeje]

There appear to be very few coaches left who are capable of molding disparate parts into a winning machine anymore. Joe Gibbs was the last one here who could take a team built through FA to the playoffs on a consistent basis (and even St Joe whiffed on Archuletta and others). Most coaches appear to have a scheme and a system and need a particular set of players devoted to that scheme.

Scot must believe he can get tremendous value in this draft, for the scheme Gruden is running. The draft is always going to be a more attractive option if you have someone who knows what they're doing, because of cost. If you have someone who was a 4th round pick making $500k a year (or whatever), you can afford to be a lot more patient with him learning a new scheme, new plays, new teammates, new coaches, new organization, etc than you can when you paid a guy a $5M signing bonus (and that's now a low-level FA).

Let's be honest. We weren't supposed to win the division last year. We exceeded projections last year. Scot could have adjusted his five year plan accordingly and accelerated things, picking up free agents who might have helped more immediately. But he sees that we may indeed take a step back next year, but in the grand scheme of his five year plan, we're still moving forward. I think Scot is eyeing 2018 as the timetable for when he wants to see us in the NFC Championship game.

Once we get to that point, I could see him pulling a FA signing or two to bolster some weakness on the roster. But I also won't be surprised if he doesn't. He built SEA and SF through the draft. No reason to think that changes now.

 

[Henry]

Even taking that schedule into consideration, I still don't see the logic in building depth, before building starters. It seems backwards.
What's the benefit in building depth first, and then starters ? Too much can go wrong, with that method.
Also we just won the division. So why should it take another 2-3 years, to go from division winner, to serious contender ?

Starters ... depth ... we need it all anyway. The important thing is to keep building, keep moving forward.

We are definitely doing that. It's not sexy, but it's smart.

It's been a long time since we've seen smart around here.

 

[Henry]

In short, we are going to lose 3-4 starters a year. We are going to hope that he can hit on 3-4 starters a year through the draft.

When all is said and done, we won't net anything.

I think that is a vast over-simplification, and also just plain incorrect.

If you draft well, you end up with a pipeline, where depth players become starters to replace those 3-4 that leave, and you also add high-round picks that can come in and start right away.

We haven't seen that here in over 20 years so I'm not surprised we've all forgotten what it looks like. This is only the second year with our current GM. Give him a few years to set it up.

 

[McD5]

I think that is a vast over-simplification, and also just plain incorrect.

If you draft well, you end up with a pipeline, where depth players become starters to replace those 3-4 that leave, and you also add high-round picks that can come in and start right away.

We haven't seen that here in over 20 years so I'm not surprised we've all forgotten what it looks like. This is only the second year with our current GM. Give him a few years to set it up.

It's definitely an oversimplification because I don't have the desire to type out every possible scenario or nuance. But in whole, it's a pretty accurate description of our current plan.

We will lose 3-4 starters a year, and we will hope that McLovin can draft well enough to replace those 3-4 starters a year.

There are many other variables--many of them negative with that approach.

Hoping he doesn't completely whiff on a draft, and trying to convince other current players that we really are trying to win in the next two years are just a few that jump to mind. Juggling 5 or 6 TEs in one season, and asking the coaching staff to acclimate them to the program during a playoff run like we did last year is another problem.

It kind of reminds me of when the RG3 extension was announced. It was either something people would be able to look ahead twelve months and see immediately as a potential problem, or it's one that they wouldn't and they would support.

This isn't in that same category, but it's another one that requires foresight.

I believe rather than flipping 36 year old Anquan Boldins or one year Dashon Goldsons every year, we would be better served by taking a 25 year old in FA that is actually a quality starter. A player that could grow with the team over the next two or three seasons. Not a super expensive Al Haynesworth, but a younger starting talent.

As we stand right now, we haven't traded players that he determined early on weren't a fit for his scheme in exchange for draft picks. Picks we could use to draft potential starters that do fit his system.

We are filling many holes with one or two year short-term solutions, and then filling those same holes again with one or two year short-term solutions.

It's really a numbers game. We lose 3-4, and then we hope to replace those 3-4 if he continues to draft well. But we don't make up a lot of ground.

 

[Om]

It's definitely an oversimplification because I don't have the desire to type out every possible scenario or nuance. But in whole, it's a pretty accurate description of our current plan.

We will lose 3-4 starters a year, and we will hope that McLovin can draft well enough to replace those 3-4 starters a year.

There are many other variables--many of them negative with that approach.

Hoping he doesn't completely whiff on a draft, and trying to convince other current players that we really are trying to win in the next two years are just a few that jump to mind. Juggling 5 or 6 TEs in one season, and asking the coaching staff to acclimate them to the program during a playoff run like we did last year is another problem.

It kind of reminds me of when the RG3 extension was announced. It was either something people would be able to look ahead twelve months and see immediately as a potential problem, or it's one that they wouldn't and they would support.

This isn't in that same category, but it's another one that requires foresight.

I believe rather than flipping 36 year old Anquan Boldins or one year Dashon Goldsons every year, we would be better served by taking a 25 year old in FA that is actually a quality starter. A player that could grow with the team over the next two or three seasons. Not a super expensive Al Haynesworth, but a younger starting talent.

As we stand right now, we haven't traded players that he determined early on weren't a fit for his scheme in exchange for draft picks. Picks we could use to draft potential starters that do fit his system.

We are filling many holes with one or two year short-term solutions, and then filling those same holes again with one or two year short-term solutions.

It's really a numbers game. We lose 3-4, and then we hope to replace those 3-4 if he continues to draft well. But we don't make up a lot of ground.

I suppose it comes down to whether or not one believes McCloughan:

1) is unaware of those potential avenues, and/or

2) perhaps hasn't been able to find "25 year old FA's that are actually quality starters" as easily as you suggest, and/or trade partners interested in swapping us quality draft picks for guys he doesn't think can really play here either?

Not looking just to bust your chops, but it doesn't sound like you give our GM credit for even the most basic understanding of his job.

 

[McD5]

And one other note.....I'm not freaking out about it. I support him.

It's just a plan that requires an awful lot to go right, and it's one that will take many years to complete.

 

[McD5]

I suppose it comes down to whether or not one believes McCloughan:

1) is unaware of those potential avenues, and/or

2) perhaps hasn't been able to find "25 year old FA's that are actually quality starters" as easily as you suggest, and/or trade partners interested in swapping us quality draft picks for guys he doesn't think can really play here either?

Not looking just to bust your chops, but it doesn't sound like you give our GM credit for even the most basic understanding of his job.

Thanks Om. I know you're not looking to bust anyone's chops. And I'm not either. I've seen more than enough busting of chops over the last year on social media between Skins fans to last me five lifetimes.

Nor do I want to come across as negative. I've seen enough of that too.

I just believe there's a gap we need to make up that surpasses what we can do via the draft alone and with the way we are currently operating in FA.

I'm aware that 25 year old starting FAs aren't super easy to come by, and I'm also aware of reports that we've bid on a few of them. I also understand if the price just became too expensive.

I just believe there are cases where it makes sense to sign a 25 year old Tashaun Gipson to play safety for us rather than throwing a one or two year deal to an aging Goldson.

We even had 36 year old Anquan Boldin come to the park for a look. I'm not sure how he would possibly fit in for a team looking to compete a few years from now.

I just sense a hesitancy. A refusal to commit to one goal or the other.

Either rebuild, or don't rebuild. Blow it up and get as many draft picks as humanly possible or fix your rushing problems immediately with one signing of a Doug Martin or Lamar Miller.

Losing 3-4 starters a year and replacing them with 3-4 draft successes a year, when the rookies will come in and...well, play like rookies.....and then adding aging one year players to fill other holes doesn't appear to me to be enough.

 

[Goaldeje]

But you're assuming we are losing 3-4 starters that we don't want to lose. Let's think about this. Two years ago, we all wanted Tyler Polumbus gone. He is gone. He was replaced by Morgan Moses, who did quite well last year. Even though Moses wasn't a draft pick of Scot's, that's an example of Scot being patient with depth until that depth was able to step in to the starting position, and provide an improvement from the "player" we let walk.

That played out exactly the way it should have. And I think we will see more and more of that happening as the years go on, unless Scot loses his touch with drafting. Drafting guys gives us time to give them to develop and get better and then eventually push the lesser-performing vets we have on the roster.

Losing 3-4 guys each year can be a really GOOD thing.

 

[Henry]

It's definitely an oversimplification because I don't have the desire to type out every possible scenario or nuance. But in whole, it's a pretty accurate description of our current plan.

We will lose 3-4 starters a year, and we will hope that McLovin can draft well enough to replace those 3-4 starters a year.

There are many other variables--many of them negative with that approach.

Hoping he doesn't completely whiff on a draft, and trying to convince other current players that we really are trying to win in the next two years are just a few that jump to mind. Juggling 5 or 6 TEs in one season, and asking the coaching staff to acclimate them to the program during a playoff run like we did last year is another problem.

I say this so often I'm sure I sound like a broken record:

Either our front office guy knows what he's doing, or he doesn't.

If he knows what he's doing, we don't have to HOPE for anything. We EXPECT it. We should expect our GM doesn't whiff on an entire draft. If that happens, the team will be set back no matter what he does in FA.

If he doesn't know what he's doing, no amount of free agents will save this team. If we whiff on drafts, we will also likely whiff on free agents. We know what that looks like.

It kind of reminds me of when the RG3 extension was announced. It was either something people would be able to look ahead twelve months and see immediately as a potential problem, or it's one that they wouldn't and they would support.

This isn't in that same category, but it's another one that requires foresight.

I believe rather than flipping 36 year old Anquan Boldins or one year Dashon Goldsons every year, we would be better served by taking a 25 year old in FA that is actually a quality starter. A player that could grow with the team over the next two or three seasons. Not a super expensive Al Haynesworth, but a younger starting talent.

Let's just go nuts and pretend we signed some random 25 year-old free agent. Some guy like, oh, I don't know ... let's just go with Lamar Miller. Here's a guy who has never been a full-time starter in his entire pro career, but is the Flavor of the Month because he's got a nice hi-lite reel. Now, the Texans are paying him $5.5 million this year. That makes a guy that's never carried the ball more than 216 times in a season the 7th highest paid RB in the entire league. That's this year. After that, his contract goes UP, and he get's more expensive. If he, for some reason, doesn't work out, and the Texans want to cut him next year, the cap hit is over $8 million.

And that is something a GM can't afford to whiff on. That's the kind of move you need to aim your hopes and prayers at. If that signing doesn't work out, your team is crippled, good draft or no.

This is the sort of thing we don't want the Redskins to do anymore. We don't want to make splashy moves for veterans that had moments with other teams in other schemes, simply because we like how they look on YouTube. We want our GM to pick guys that fit here. Guys that can be brought up to play here, the way we want them to.

I have no problem bringing some 36 year-old guy here on the cheap for a year. That's a place-holder move and it's low risk. The long-term starters? I would expect that other than some VERY surgical free agent moves, we draft them here.

As we stand right now, we haven't traded players that he determined early on weren't a fit for his scheme in exchange for draft picks. Picks we could use to draft potential starters that do fit his system.

If you we going to take a risk on a player, I'd just as soon take a risk on our own guy and see if he can work out here. If he doesn't, meh. At least we know what he have and don't have on the roster. It was Year One.

We are filling many holes with one or two year short-term solutions, and then filling those same holes again with one or two year short-term solutions.

It's really a numbers game. We lose 3-4, and then we hope to replace those 3-4 if he continues to draft well. But we don't make up a lot of ground.

It's pretty obvious we are filling holes until the pipeline starts flowing. If that pipeline doesn't happen, free agency won't save us.

Either our GM knows what he's doing or he doesn't.

 

[Goaldeje]

Not sure I can like that post enough.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Something to remember - Scot drafted Kentwan Balmer. Things happen. We hope he does a good job, but mistakes will occur.

Ok, time to put this latest debate on hold for a moment...

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)​

Today we bring you the latest mock from the BBQ World HQ. This mock features trades and other exciting information. In the coming weeks we will have mocks that focus on trades, multiple trades, and two mocks that are BGO member centric.

Feel free to offer your own ideas about the draft, free agency, team cuts, and anything else related to these subjects. Too, we’d like to see your mocks if you are so inclined.

Without any further delays, let’s take a look at the latest mock for 2016.

Round One: A’Shawn Robinson, DE/DT, Alabama
One of the best defensive linemen to ever play for the perennial national title contender. A force for the SEC’s Crimson Tide. He can play inside or slide outside as a 3-4 end. A run stuffer. A pass rusher. Great attitude. A dominating force who can overwhelm an offensive line. Robinson is everything you could want in a defensive lineman and more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BR7EyecqwM
Other Possible Targets:
Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
Vernon Butler, DT/DE, Louisiana Tech
Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
William Jackson, CB, Houston
Sheldon Rankins, DT/DE, Louisville
Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi

Round Two: Trade
The Redskins down to the early third round and gain fourth and fifth rounders.

Round Three: Darian Thompson, FS, Boise St.
The free safety class for 2016 is a bit weak, but there are a few standouts and Thompson is one of the better prospects. He has the size, length, and physicality that teams like from their safeties. The two time All-American from the Mountain West program could develop into an elite defender. Takes good angles when defending receivers and running backs. Has the ability to blitz and get around tackles quickly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmPc7LulbWE
Other Possible Targets:
Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor
Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma
Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado St.
T.J. Green, FS, Clemson
Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame

Round Three: Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama
Let’s get some bad news out of the way. In early 2015, Jones was arrested for a domestic issue. The charges were dropped a week later (Tuscaloosa police and city attorney) after it appeared to be settled (altercation was verbal and not physical). Most teams have lowered his draft stock by one round. Now, some good news. Jones is one of the fastest players in the draft. The All-SEC player has the size to intimidate receivers. Very confident. Good in the run game. Switched from WR two seasons ago and has played the position ever since, so upside is enormous. Excellent punt return skills as he will occasionally take one to the house.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iJ4UyVTE_o

Round Four: Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana
Indiana is known as a basketball mecca and the football team is something of an afterthought. The Hoosiers have seen some good fortunes on the gridiron last few years and Howard is a big reason for that buzz. Even with Tevin Coleman (now with the Atlanta Falcons), his backfield running mate last year, Howard was a running machine and still rushed for more than 1,500 yards. He is overlooked because of being in a lower tier program within the Big Ten, but has the size and strength to excel at the next level.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otzk5QUSjAY
Other Possible Targets:
Sean Davis, FS, Maryland
Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa
Denver Kirkland, OG, Arkansas
Bronson Kaufusi, DE, BYU
Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah St.

Round Four: Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Texas
The All Big12 performer is like the classic blue collar worker who packs his lunch and comes to work with a positive attitude. There is nothing flashy about him other than dependability and reliability. He can occupy blockers at the line and apply pressure in the running and passing games. Ridgeway will likely add about ten to fifteen pounds of bulk to his sturdy frame. For his size, the Longhorn is deceptively quick on his feet. Pretty much an unmovable object on the field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93CbXKt7roY

Round Five: Graham Glasgow, C/G, Michigan
Glasgow is an intriguing prospect who can play either left guard or center with superb effectiveness. He would go a bit earlier if it wasn’t for a DUI conviction and a team suspension for similar behavior. In the past year, the Big Ten mauler has become a model citizen and had a great year on the gridiron. He more than held his own at the Senior Bowl as he handled elite defenders who will do well at the next level.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otzk5QUSjAY
Other Possible Targets:
Max Tuerk, C, Southern California
Jayron Kearse, FS, Clemson
Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas
Matt Ioannidis, DE, Temple
DeAndre Houston-Carson, FS, William & Mary

Round Five: Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford
Martinez is a relentless baller who plays intelligently and within his skillset. The PAC-12 first teamer, a captain for the Cardinal, is a leader on and off the field. He is solid in the passing and rushing defense and has a great nose for the ball. Seems to be around most plays and creates a disruptive force against offenses. Well regarded and respected by opposing coaches and players. A solid core player who would be exceptional on special teams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLMjz6Z1Dh0

Round Six: Maurice Canady, CB, Virginia
Do you need another punt returner who can score the occasional touchdown? He’s capable. The ACC specialist is a pretty good corner as well and is rated a bit higher by many scouting services. However, he regressed a somewhat during a senior season that was hindered by poor team play. Deceptively quick. Canady has the size and strength that most teams covet, but will need a year or two on the bench. Could make his mark on special teams and then make the transition to nickel and dime back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PgXbCT9Z54
Other Possible Targets:
Tyvis Powell, FS, Ohio St.
Deiondre Hall, CB, Northern Iowa
Jared Norris, ILB, Utah
D.J. Reader, DT, Clemson
Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB, West Virginia
Ken Crawley, CB, Colorado

Round Seven: Nate Sudfeld, QB, Indiana
The Redskins take another Hoosier in round seven, a project with some decent upside at the quarterback position. The fundamentally sound Sudfeld had a good senior season with nearly 3,200 yards passing. He tossed twenty-four touchdowns and just five interceptions. The numbers were twenty-one and nine for his junior campaign. He would obviously be a candidate for third string, but could quickly become a reliable backup within a year or two. The one negative would be that the 6’5”, 240 lb. Sudfeld floats his long passes a bit too much – something that should be easily corrected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UG6y2yLcnA
Other Possible Targets:
Joe Thuney, G, N.C. St.
Cody Kessler, QB, Southern California
Ian Seau, OLB, Nevada
Terrance Smith, ILB, Florida St.
Elijah Shumate, SS, Notre Dame

Round Seven: Clayton Fejedelem, FS, Illinois
Are you looking for a seventh round steal? Are you looking for a seventh rounder who could start or play many minutes in a reserve role two or three years from now? Are you looking for a special teams player that is able to contribute immediately? Are you looking for a diamond in the rough? Look no further. Clayton Fejedelem is an aggressive free safety who led the Big Ten in tackles last year. He was solid in the Illini’s pro day and had a great East-West Shrine game. Fejedelem has constantly silenced his critics and continues to do so. So yes, he would be a seventh round steal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1m440K2C40o

Undrafted Free Agent Prospects:
Antwaun Woods, DT, Southern Cal
Nick Beamish, C, Central Michigan
Josh Forrest, ILB, Kentucky
Jake McGee, TE, Florida
Cassanova McKinzy, ILB, Auburn
Tevin Carter, SS, Utah
Giorgio Newberry, DE, Florida St.
Ian Frye, K, Virginia
Mike Jordan, CB, Missouri Western
Devon Johnson, RB/FB, Marshall
Vincent Valentine, DT, Nebraska
Curt Maggitt, OLB, Tennessee
Wallace Scott, SS, McNeese St.
Steven Scheu, TE, Vanderbilt
Chris Mayes, DT, Georgia
Alonzo Russell, WR, Toledo
Corey Marshall, OLB, Virginia Tech
Keenan Reynolds, RB, Navy
Deon Bush, FS, Miami
Travis Wilson, QB, Utah
Cayleb Jones, WR, Arizona
Christian Carpenter, FS, Towson
Devon Cajuste, WR, Stanford
Arjen Colquhoun, CB, Michigan St.
Darrell Greene, OG, San Diego St.

Prospects Contacted, Interviewed, Visited:
East-West Shrine game - EW
Senior Bowl - SB
Combine – NFLC
Team Pro Day – TPD
Team Visit – TV
Private Workout – PW

Ken Crawley, CB, Colorado – EW
Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn St. - NFLC
Elijah Shumate, SS, Notre Dame – EW
Keith Lumpkin, OT, Rutgers – EW
Sean Davis, FS, Maryland - TPD
Connor Cook, QB, Michigan St. - NFLC
Keenan Reynolds, RB, Navy – EW, TPD
Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Ole Miss – NFLC
Artie Burns, CB, Miami - TPD
Joe Thuney, OG, N.C. St. – EW
Kevin Byard, FS, Middle Tennessee St. - TPD
Sheldon Rankins, DT/DE, Louisville - TPD
Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson – NFLC, TPD
Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State - NFLC
Juston Burris, CB, N.C. St. – EW
Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech _NFLC
Jarran Reed, DE/DT, Alabama – NFLC
Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota St. - TPD
Josh Ferguson, RB, Illinois – EW
Jonathan Jones, CB, Auburn - TPD
A'Shawn Robinson, DE/DT, Alabama - NFLC
Darion Griswold, TE, Arkansas St. – EW
Deon Bush, FS, Miami - TPD
Tajae Sharpe, WR, Massachusetts-Amherst – EW
Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky - NFLC
Terrance Smith, ILB, Florida St. – EW
Charone Peake, WR, Clemson - TPD

There is your latest mock for 2016 and prospect lists. The draft is getting closer and closer. We’ll post who the Redskins contact during team pro days, visits, and who they work out privately. See you as we go along.

Hail To The Redskins!

 

[Fear The Spear]

let’s take a look at the latest mock for 2016.
Round One: A’Shawn Robinson, DE/DT, Alabama

Drafting "A'Shawn" should get us an "A'Grade" in the draft automatically.

 

[redskins26]

300 rushing attempts by the runner is becoming the exception instead of the rule

 

[riggins44]

BB, any word on if and when we will have any team visits? I saw where Cowboys where having Bosa, Lynch, and Goff in today. Or will the team even announce who comes in?

 

[Fear The Spear]

3 weeks from today.
What are you doing, to cope with the trauma of the agonizing wait ?

 

[DieselPwr44]

3 weeks from today.
What are you doing, to cope with the trauma of the agonizing wait ?

..........................

 

[McD5]

BB, any word on if and when we will have any team visits? I saw where Cowboys where having Bosa, Lynch, and Goff in today. Or will the team even announce who comes in?

I'm sure we'll have some visits, but not like the teams picking in the top five.

If you or I were top prospects expected to go in the top 10, and a team picking at 21 wanted us to come in for a workout, we'd probably politely decline.

There's definitely a balance between wanting to look like you'd be happy being selected by anyone, and wasting your time flying all over to meet every team between 20 and 32.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

I've been chatting with several of the Redskins beat reporters of late and we all agree that the Redskins are keeping things a closely guarded secret. It's frustrating for me and predicting the mocks, but nice to see from a fan point of view. A true GM is running the show. Hope that answers your question.

Ok...

The BBQ World Headquarters is moving to a new (physical) location. The move is on April 30. Rotten timing for the draft. I will try and not miss a beat. My time is precious, but I could be "off the air" for a few days from May 1 to ???. Analysis of the draft will occur as soon as I am able.

Some odds and ends...

The Redskins have about $13.5M in cap space.

The team is interested in bringing back Jason Hatcher and Dashon Goldson. Re-signing them to new deals will not affect the draft at all. Scot McCloughan has formulated several plans for the draft and is not altering them with any new FA additions.

A trade is possible in the first round, but not likely. McCloughan is looking for a true impact player with that first pick.

 

[Fear The Spear]

The team is interested in bringing back Jason Hatcher and Dashon Goldson.

The fact that reportedly zero teams had interest in Goldson, concerns me.