You're thinking correctly.
SmootPoint knows much more than I do about contracts, but in layman's terms......
1. Kirk, here's $20 million for one year. Roll the dice.
2. Kirk, here's $17 million for three years. Your call.
Thanks for the mention, McD5... However, I would say I'm more interested in this topic than others... I'm not necessarily knowledgeable. I get most of my information from same place others do, but much of my opinions are formed from listening to SiriusXM NFL channel. Pat Kirwan & Andrew Brandt especially have a lot of experience being around deals like this and knowing how they go down.
I believe Cousins will get at least $20M guaranteed in 1st year of contract unless we let him hit the open market and his market is less than that (I doubt that happens)...
There are 4 groups of people who have a stake in what the contract looks like (not including fans):
1) Kirk Cousins (it's obvious)... He should get whatever he can from this deal, but a short term deal that allows him to renegotiate again in a few years might help him. It's in Kirk's best interest to make the team happy with his contract.
2) Redskins (it's obvious)... We'll pretty much be able to see if the team views Cousins as the future and franchise QB based on the amount of guaranteed money over the $20M, especially the money that would convert to dead money should he be cut after year 1 or 2... It's in team's best interest to make sure Kirk is happy with contract (if they want to keep him around).
3) Kirk's Agent - Kirk's agent will want a splashy headline... "Cousins signed $100M deal with Redskins". He wants current & prospective clients to get the headline, so the deal may actually look ridiculous after reading the initial headline. However, I wouldn't think it will be anything but a very fair deal.
4) NFLPA - Players around the league will want to make sure Kirk gets as much money as possible. If Cousins signs a low deal, that won't make anyone around the league happy.
Now... I was wrong about the Kerrigan deal, because I thought that would hedge more closely to the amount of guaranteed money that he had coming to him in the 5th year option. I think in the 1st year of his deal he wound up with at least 50% more guaranteed money. That pretty much shows you the Redskins feelings on Kerrigan. Even though he hasn't been completely healthy & his numbers are off, it looks like a good deal for team, player & agent... So, history might suggest Cousins gets at minimum a $30M guaranteed in year 1 of the deal... I'd hope for a 3 year deal that averages around $12M-15M/year... That would mean Cousins could hit the market again for a bigger pay day sooner, maybe after proving he is a top 10 QB (and after Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Carr reset the new market). Redskins fans should be ecstatic with that deal. Agent would probably press for a splashier headline, but I think it's a fair deal that ultimately provides Kirk a chance to prove himself and more freedom to renegotiate with a better resume. I think Kirwan was arguing some of these points, but he was saying let Cousins walk if the price tag is more than $7M/year... It's definitely going to be higher than that and probably double.
I think Kirk has a really strong negotiating stance, mostly because the team will want to save the franchise tag for Jordan Reed.