Kirk Cousins Development Tracker

[TomE]

Keim again, will need to scroll down for this Kirk thing

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

Age when 2016 season starts: 28
Career NFL starts: 23 (9-14 record, including 7-7 this season)

Key stats to know: Cousins has lowered his interception rate from 4.7 percent in previous seasons to 2.3 percent in 2015, which is just under the league average. He has 16 touchdown passes with only three interceptions in eight starts since Week 7. His 115.0 passer rating in that span ranks second behind Russell Wilson's 121.1. Cousins is fifth in QBR since Week 7, trailing only Carson Palmer, Wilson, Alex Smith and Drew Brees.

Dynamics to consider: Cousins is a relatively young quarterback who is hitting his stride in the final year of his contract for a team with deep pockets and no attractive alternative (the release of Griffin is a given). Cousins has played enough to give the Redskins a solid idea of what they have, but his career is still in its early stages, which differentiates him from the other quarterbacks on this list.

Washington Redskins grab control of NFC East, but Eagles in OK shape - Washington Redskins Blog- ESPN

 

[Elephant]

Right now, he's a good QB and has improved, but take away Desean Jackson and he is average at best (and we have evidence of that the 1st 7.5 games of the season).

So should we keep him or RG3?

 

[TomE]

Doc on the radio, (to paraphrase) 'down on the field.... Kirk was zipping the ball.... wow... that one to Garcon on 3rd and 16.... he's got a cannon'

 

[Smoot Point]

So should we keep him or RG3?

We need to keep Desean Jackson... end of story. I didn't actually mention anything about RGIII.
I also think we need to keep Jordan Reed...

I'll say that I think neither should be kept if we're forced to commit more than 2-3 years based on guaranteed money. You can't ignore the success Kirk Cousins has had with Desean Jackson & Jordan Reed. However, if he is going to play like the 1st part of the season if either player is out of the lineup, then you can't seriously invest long term in Kirk Cousins. You might as well gamble that Jordan Reed & Desean Jackson will be injury free for the next 5 years or you can find adequate replacements quickly.

 

[GSF]

Anyway, Cousins isn't top 10... he isn't even top 15. If you can name 15 QBs better than him, then he isn't top 15 (and I think we can all do that)... Heck, I think I did that in a post last week. For all the oggling over Kirk Cousins 22 TDs & 11 INTs, why is nobody going gaga over Ryan Fitzpatrick's 26TDs & 12 INTs? Yeah, his QB Rating is high now, but so is Tyrod Taylor...

Right now, he's a good QB and has improved, but take away Desean Jackson and he is average at best (and we have evidence of that the 1st 7.5 games of the season).

Isn't top 15 based on what? I'm sorry but the numbers don't back up your claims.

2015 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Right now, Cousins is QB rating is 8th in the league. He's 14th in TDs(not counting the 5 he's run in) and number 1 in completion percentage. Those are top 10 numbers no matter how you slice it. If you could find the stats for just the last 6 games I'd bet he'd be higher as he curve has been pretty steady upward as the season as progressed. Tyrod Taylor's QB rating is a little skewed b/c he's only had 334 attempts this season, 150 less than Cousins and at least 100 less than the rest of the top 10 on average.

And of course if you take away Jackson, that would make things tougher for Cousins, but the same goes for AJ Green and Dalton, or Megatron and Stafford, or Brandon Marshall and Fitzpatrick(all 3 of those guys are ranked lower than Cousins right now btw). And keep in mind, Cousins has a 97.2 rating for the season and only has had DJax for what 4 games?

I don't put Cousins in the elite category yet, but he has certainly showed some serious improvement and potential this season, his first season as the full time starter. If he keeps going in the same direction he's going right now, he has a chance to be very good. I also think that Cousins has a lot of the intangibles that coaches look for(leadership, maturity, ect), which is something that RG3 was clearly lacking. It's easy to see that the players are united behind Cousins.

If you think there are 15 QBs in the league better than him right now you're just not paying close attention.

 

[GSF]

We need to keep Desean Jackson... end of story. I didn't actually mention anything about RGIII.
I also think we need to keep Jordan Reed...

I'll say that I think neither should be kept if we're forced to commit more than 2-3 years based on guaranteed money. You can't ignore the success Kirk Cousins has had with Desean Jackson & Jordan Reed. However, if he is going to play like the 1st part of the season if either player is out of the lineup, then you can't seriously invest long term in Kirk Cousins. You might as well gamble that Jordan Reed & Desean Jackson will be injury free for the next 5 years or you can find adequate replacements quickly.

Not to keep piling on you here, but this also makes no sense. Any QB that loses his top receivers is going to find things a little tougher. Aaron Rogers, the best QB in the nfl imo, and his offense are looking kind mediocre right now without Jordy Nelson. And don't forget that Cousins was kinda thrown to the wolves in the beginning of the season with virtually no first team reps in training camp or preseason. I think the way Cousins has been playing in recent weeks says a lot more than the way he was playing early in the season.

 

[GSF]

I'm really starting to think that some folks were so disappointed about the benching of RG3, that they're just having a tough time getting their brains around the fact that Cousins is actually the better nfl qb, and that the coaching staff might have actually known what they were doing when they made the switch. I also believe that the Redskins didn't just pick Cousins b/c he was there, but that they felt he could be good, and that they knew that there was a lot of risk of RG3 not being able to adjust to the nfl. Both moves are looking pretty smart right now.

 

[fansince62]

We need to keep Desean Jackson... end of story. I didn't actually mention anything about RGIII.
I also think we need to keep Jordan Reed...

I'll say that I think neither should be kept if we're forced to commit more than 2-3 years based on guaranteed money. You can't ignore the success Kirk Cousins has had with Desean Jackson & Jordan Reed. However, if he is going to play like the 1st part of the season if either player is out of the lineup, then you can't seriously invest long term in Kirk Cousins. You might as well gamble that Jordan Reed & Desean Jackson will be injury free for the next 5 years or you can find adequate replacements quickly.

don't stress...the Cousins mafia has its own agenda. the NFL is rife with by-lines about one time wonders. Cousins may or may not fit that trajectory....but I'm more inclined to agree with you. give it time over a couple seasons so we can see what is there - especially in the playoffs against real defenses and better coaches. especially before big bucks are invested.

funny how the Team ethos seems to go out the window with all the positive accomplishments....but immediately reappears when the fault lines show. life in a blog.

RGIII didn't perform...he's out the door. that simple. you and I know it. you and I also know the dynamic ran deeper than that and there was hatred directed that young man's way....no matter how many times that notion is denied...we all saw it.

wish we would shed RGIII tomorrow...so the frictions/discussions would end. I have never been one for dissembling.

 

[Smoot Point]

Isn't top 15 based on what? I'm sorry but the numbers don't back up your claims.

2015 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Based on your link, Tyrod Taylor (who we saw play this weekend) is better than Cam Newton, Drew Brees & Kirk Cousins... Do you still feel confident in your use of this stat to talk about the top 15 QBs in the league?

Here are the QBs that I would say are undeniably better than Kirk Cousins (in order that I can think of them):

1) Rodgers
2) Brady
3) Roethlisberger
4) Brees
5) Palmer
6) Newton
7) Wilson
8) E Manning
9) Romo
10) Luck
11) Dalton
12) Smith
13) Flacco
14) Ryan

Those are names off the top of my head that I can think of without breaking a sweat... If you want to argue a few of them, that's okay... That's still a bunch, and I have more...

Now, let's get into the names of players who are younger and have a higher upside/potential (and are showing it at this level this year):

15) D Carr (unquestionably the best of the young QBs right now)
16) Bortles (has more yards & TDs than Cousins)
17) Winston (a rookie and putting up similar numbers to Cousins)
18) Mariota (has fewer weapons & proving he can play at this level)

Then you can have arguments in either direction with a number of QBs... A week or two ago, I said Kirk Cousins was in the 22-25 range. Maybe I'd slide him a bit higher after this performance, and I can accept people saying he is in the 18-22 range, but he is clearly not in the top 15 yet. I didn't even list Tyrod Taylor above, because I don't consider him a top 15 QB either.

I also think that Cousins has a lot of the intangibles that coaches look for(leadership, maturity, ect), which is something that RG3 was clearly lacking.

I only pulled this quote because when I was in High School (late 80s), a friend and I (two white guys) used to joke that "intangibles" was a code word for "white". I know what you were trying to say, and I know it wasn't going there. However, I think it's probably a word to avoid when comparing people. It doesn't actually mean anything, anyway. I found this as proof that this isn't just a made up thing: It's number 14 on the White Guy Code Word Rankings. Anyway... Kirk's leadership has progressed this year... I wouldn't say it's progressed to what RGIII was in 2012 though.

 

[fansince62]

smooty.....Kirk is doing fine at this stage. I just find all the hyperbole...well....a little too forward leaning.

as for the other QBs you list...at this point...hard to quibble: they have more of a track record.

 

[Smoot Point]

Wow, you've had a crazy week. Sorry about the death of a loved one. And good luck on the eye surgery. That makes me squint my eyes just thinking about it. It's good to see you back.

I have to say though, I still believe you make some wild assumptions about the QB position.

Thank you, sir!

I'll provide a few updates... Eye surgery has gone well (as expected). However, I came down with a severe cold (that struck a few in my house) and we were unable to travel to the memorial service. Only good news was that I was able to catch the game on Sunday.

Anyway, I may be making wild assumptions... I appreciate all the banter. Keeping me honest keeps me sharp...

I'll agree that RGIII's injury history carries significant risk... I can't argue that, but his potential is still there and we will discard him after this season with a number of unanswered questions. I'd rather have discarded him after answering all questions after what we had already invested. I still see Kirk as a very solid backup/spot starter. If anyone QB on this team should be compared to Kai, it's Colt or Kirk... RGIII has a bigger arm and is more explosive. Kai Forbath was consistent up to a point. However, I'll surrender the points if people actually want to argue about it.

Anyway... Thank you for the kind words.

 

[Smoot Point]

smooty.....Kirk is doing fine at this stage. I just find all the hyperbole...well....a little too forward leaning.

as for the other QBs you list...at this point...hard to quibble: they have more of a track record.

Some guy on twitter was predicting his contract would be $80M over 4 years with $50M guaranteed... and he was happy about it. That's a freaking anchor to the organization. If he sucks next year, you basically have to stick with him as your starting QB. I'd rather just franchise tag him and make him prove it at that rate. At least then, you get another year to kick the tires and make sure this wasn't a season like Foles2013... If he won the Super Bowl like Flacco did on a franchise year, then he'd be worthy of a multi-year mega-guaranteed contract.

 

[Henry]

Smoot I don't generally disagree with anything you've said about Kirk.

I DO think he's having a pretty good year. I think if he has another good year he moves up that list of yours some. I think if he puts together years like this consistently, he could conceivably move into the top ten range.

I'm not sure he's ever going to do that. I suspect he will be a middling QB his entire career. I hope we don't break the bank for the guy but I'm not exactly down on him either. He is having a good year.

 

[Smoot Point]

This performance is what's changed me about Kirk. I didn't think he could cut down the INTs, but he has.

I agree that this is encouraging, but Nick Foles in 2013 (13 games) with Desean Jackson was 29 TDs & 2 INTs... Without him in 2014 (8 games), Nick Foles was 13 TDs & 10 INTs...

In 2015, Kirk Cousins without DJax (7 games) was 9 TDs and 8 INTs, with DJax (7 games) Kirk Cousins is 13 TDs & 3 INTs...

Why should I believe Kirk Cousins is better than a player drafted ~14 spots higher than him?

 

[GSF]

Based on your link, Tyrod Taylor (who we saw play this weekend) is better than Cam Newton, Drew Brees & Kirk Cousins... Do you still feel confident in your use of this stat to talk about the top 15 QBs in the league?

Here are the QBs that I would say are undeniably better than Kirk Cousins (in order that I can think of them):

1) Rodgers
2) Brady
3) Roethlisberger
4) Brees
5) Palmer
6) Newton
7) Wilson
8) E Manning
9) Romo
10) Luck
11) Dalton
12) Smith
13) Flacco
14) Ryan

Those are names off the top of my head that I can think of without breaking a sweat... If you want to argue a few of them, that's okay... That's still a bunch, and I have more...

Now, let's get into the names of players who are younger and have a higher upside/potential (and are showing it at this level this year):

15) D Carr (unquestionably the best of the young QBs right now)
16) Bortles (has more yards & TDs than Cousins)
17) Winston (a rookie and putting up similar numbers to Cousins)
18) Mariota (has fewer weapons & proving he can play at this level)

Then you can have arguments in either direction with a number of QBs... A week or two ago, I said Kirk Cousins was in the 22-25 range. Maybe I'd slide him a bit higher after this performance, and I can accept people saying he is in the 18-22 range, but he is clearly not in the top 15 yet. I didn't even list Tyrod Taylor above, because I don't consider him a top 15 QB either.

Again, based on what? Keep in mind that Cousins still has less than 1 year as a starter. Guys like Ryan and Luck, while both have done much more in the league, are both playing like crap this season. Romo can't stay on the field and is probably very close to being done. Eli has been very inconsistent for a few seasons right now. I think we both agree that the top 7 on your list plus Luck(Luck is slumping but no doubt he'll be back) are the current elite QBs in the NFL, but after that any one of those guys can be better or worse than the rest on any Sunday or for any season. All I can do is look at how each QB is playing right now, and right now Cousins is playing much better than about half the guys on your list.

 

[Smoot Point]

Well, because DJax is on our team.

Eli would look pretty much in decline were it not for Beckham.

Kirk does need talent around him...no one disputes that.

Agree... Indisputable. Desean Jackson is elite... Elite players are hard to come by... I'd rather invest long term in an elite quarterback instead of making an elite investment in an average quarterback who requires elite players around him. This is why I say I'd rather franchise Cousins next year than pay him for 5 years. I need to see more of him, because I'm not satisfied that he is worth the elite investment that he'll probably command on the open market.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Listening to Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller on Sirius NFL Radio this afternoon talking about Cousins and where his market is.

Miller brought up Tannehill's deal and Kirwan was like, "If the kid asks for that kind of money,wish him luck and let him go.

Kirwan's opinion is to offer Cousins a three year deal for 21 million.

"He's in a great market with a coach that loves him. The three year deal allows him to hit the market again while he's in his prime and if he regresses, it won't be that hard to get out of the deal or trade him."

Now Kirwan worked in the front office so that's probably biased some towards the team but it sounds reasonable.

Thoughts?

 

[Smoot Point]

Again, based on what? Keep in mind that Cousins still has less than 1 year as a starter. Guys like Ryan and Luck, while both have done much more in the league, are both playing like crap this season. Romo can't stay on the field and is probably very close to being done. Eli has been very inconsistent for a few seasons right now. I think we both agree that the top 7 on your list plus Luck(Luck is slumping but no doubt he'll be back) are the current elite QBs in the NFL, but after that any one of those guys can be better or worse than the rest on any Sunday or for any season. All I can do is look at how each QB is playing right now, and right now Cousins is playing much better than about half the guys on your list.

Kirk Cousins is a 27 year old man... Can we stop treating him like he is an NFL prospect? I'm going to add to this point... Cousins had 3 games in 2013 to become the starting QB, and he failed miserably... Cousins had like 6 games in 2014 to become the starter QB and he was benched... Who created this story that Cousins is a 1st year starter?

Without Desean Jackson, Kirk Cousins might be slightly better than Nick Foles... I can't agree with your evaluation of other NFL quarterbacks until you help me understand why I shouldn't look at Cousins2015 through Foles2013 colored glasses...

 

[Smoot Point]

Listening to Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller on Sirius NFL Radio this afternoon talking about Cousins and where his market is.

Miller brought up Tannehill's deal and Kirwan was like, "If the kid asks for that kind of money,wish him luck and let him go.

Kirwan's opinion is to offer Cousins a three year deal for 21 million.

"He's in a great market with a coach that loves him. The three year deal allows him to hit the market again while he's in his prime and if he regresses, it won't be that hard to get out of the deal or trade him."

Now Kirwan worked in the front office so that's probably biased some towards the team but it sounds reasonable.

Thoughts?

I like PK, but I think he is a little low... I've said all along that Cousins will get at least $20M guaranteed in the 1st year of his deal (based on FT)... I'd be ecstatic with that deal if the Redskins are able to get Cousins to sign it, but I don't think that's going to happen. Cousins would get more money in 1 year playing on the Franchise tag, so there is no reason he would sign that deal. He'd hit the open market, and teams would line up with better offers. I'm fine with letting Cousins walk if he gets a big commitment from another team. No reason to break the bank on him, IMO.

Let me add, I wouldn't be opposed to a deal that had $30M guaranteed over 3 years and was worth around $40M. You basically are able to give him the $20M up front (and whatever the minimum base would be), then $5M/yr roster bonus that you can walk from if he doesn't cut it. Still, I think he holds out for more though (or just signs the Franchise tag).

 

[fansince62]

Well, because DJax is on our team.

Eli would look pretty much in decline were it not for Beckham.

Kirk does need talent around him...no one disputes that.

Eli won SBs without Beckham...so that one doesn't fly.