I'm agnostic on Gruden at this point.
I'm going to continue to be a lonely voice on this, but as far as I'm concerned, Jay Gruden, NFL Head Coach, starts getting fairly and reasonably assessed starting this fall. Not on the 3-13 mess he inherited last season, or on impressions we gleaned from how he handled specific aspects of the job as a rookie. To me, rookie seasons, no matter how good or bad the franchise a rookie head coach takes over, are the very definition of OJT.
Rookies are going to make mistakes. The key is what they DO about it. Gruden's now had a full year to assess his team and himself--a year to assess his roster, staff, schemes, public methodology, everything. Now is when he has to show that he's taken that experience and perspective and can translate it into a forward momentum and an improved product on the field.
He could turn out to be a disaster. Or he could end up in Canton. As of today, we have no idea. But we'll have a much better sense of which end of that spectrum he's headed to by the time 2015 winds down.