Random Commanders Thoughts

[servumtuum]

This isn't aimed at you, it just got me thinking and wondering what each has done.


Colt McCoy career stats - He has played in 30 games, and started 22. He has 22 TD's, 21 int's, and 13 fumbles. He has also been sacked 64 times.

So lets just take those stats with the games he started because most of the other 8 were garbage time. He takes almost 3 sacks per game, is good for 1 TD, and will turn the ball over 1.5 times a game.

Griffin averages just over 2 sacks per game, almost 1.5 TD, and will turn it over once.

Cousins averages 1 sack, 1 TD, and 1 turnover per game.

SC, The stats you preent are informative but, unfortuneately, present an incomplete view of Colt's interception tendencies.

First, I find it more useful to relate interceptions to pass attempts because the number of pass attempts per game varies game-to-game and the more pass attempts the more the risk of an iNT. Second what I also find more useful is variation between games as far as gauging his performnce.

Example:

In the 2010 season Colt started 8 games and had 9 INTs for the season but 6 of those INTs came in two games 3 each against the Ravens and Steelers. 9 INTs in 222 attempts is slightly over 4% INT rate, which, admittedly is not very good but he also had 4 games without an INT. His 6 TDs were, of course, more than equaled by his 9 INTs giving a poor TD to INT ratio of .67

2011 turned out better in terms of INT percentage rate 11 INTs in 463 attempts-2.4% INT rate-which, for reference, is the same as Jason Campbell had at Oakland and Matt Stafford had with the Lions that same season. Not great but better than the Redskins suffered with Grossman's 4.4% and John Beck's 3% that same season. McCoy started 13 games in 2011 so he was producing slightly over 1 INT pergame for the Browns pretty consistently with only 3 games sans INTs. His TD/INT ration improved with 14 TDs and 11 INTs to 1.27, again for reference, the same as Matt Hasselback at the Titans and Mike Vick with the Eagles in 2011. (Grossman was at 0.8 and beck at 0.5 for the Skins if you're wondering.)

2012 and 2013 he had only 18n total pass attempts with 1 TD and no INTs .

Now flash forward to this season where all of our QBs have been starters.

Griffin has 3 INTs in 119 attempts a 2.5% INT ratio-slightly better than last season's 2.6%. 2 TDs to 3 INTs, admittedly not a good ratio however.

He has fumbled 4 times with 2 of those fumbles lost which is also not good. (There is a hopeful note about this at the end of this post)

McCoy has 1 INT in 42 attempts and a pretty decent 2.4% INT percentage and a 1.0 TD/INT ratio which is not too bad.

Cousins this season has a slightly better(?) 1.1 TD/INT ratio-10 TDs to 9 INTs.

His INT percentage by attempts is at a not very commendable 4.4% however his results are also skewed by the 4 INTs against the Giants and 3 against the Cardinals.


I'm not trying to pick at you, SC, just nuancing the stats a bit to give, I think, a clearer piture of the situation.

Oh, that hopeful note about QB fumbles? We get to face one of the worst in the NFL with Andrew Luck-10 fumbles in 10 games. Jay Cutler is the only worse one with 11 fumbles. Maybe we can take advantage of that.


Source links:

Quarterback Interception Rates - INT%: 2013 NFL Season

Kirk Cousins Game By Game Stats and Performance - Washington Redskins - ESPN

Colt McCoy NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[ntotoro]

I'm so freaking depressed...

 

[fansince62]

No offense taken.

We know Robert and Kirk both played parts of games they started. Here are the numbers for this season so far:

Kirk - 8 sacks 10 TDs 9 INTs 5 starts
Colt - 5 sacks 1 TD 1 INT 1 start
Robert - 20 sacks 2 TDs 3 INTs 5 starts

Kirk's numbers are closer to what I'd expect a rookie QB numbers to be honestly. Just by the numbers the other guys look like they either don't have a grasp of the offense or aren't very good. Numbers of course don't tell the whole story, but here they are.

you see no connection between Robert's performance and the performance of the o-line? meaning...as we saw with TYPO last season and Robert getting the living *hit beaten out of him. IMO....and we've all seen it.....anyone is a liar (not you) who doesn't admit that this line has been susceptible to speed and power rushers who have marched right by the RT or pushed Chester/the center straight into the RGIII. Griffin has taken a pounding (not even discussing the punishment from running). I think one causal factor...which we have seen over and over in DC...is that the QBs get pounded on so regularly that they become gun shy and lose focus. Colt and Cousins haven't been in there long enough to get the crap really pounded out of them. the hit RGIII took in the chest against SF because of poor o-line play? Colt McCoy gets up after that? yea. right. not excusing Griffin. just sayng the underlying causes are more subtle than the morons on the Junkies and pinheads like Duke are given to assess.

the point being is that there is a connection. the stats assume uncorrelated events. like most stats..they can be bent to tell whatever story the advocate prefers. AND STATS...ONE LEARNS IN STATS 101...ARE NOT EXPLANATIONS.

 

[SC_RedskinsFan]

SC, The stats you preent are informative but, unfortuneately, present an incomplete view of Colt's interception tendencies.

First, I find it more useful to relate interceptions to pass attempts because the number of pass attempts per game varies game-to-game and the more pass attempts the more the risk of an iNT. Second what I also find more useful is variation between games as far as gauging his performnce.

Example:

In the 2010 season Colt started 8 games and had 9 INTs for the season but 6 of those INTs came in two games 3 each against the Ravens and Steelers. 9 INTs in 222 attempts is slightly over 4% INT rate, which, admittedly is not very good but he also had 4 games without an INT. His 6 TDs were, of course, more than equaled by his 9 INTs giving a poor TD to INT ratio of .67

2011 turned out better in terms of INT percentage rate 11 INTs in 463 attempts-2.4% INT rate-which, for reference, is the same as Jason Campbell had at Oakland and Matt Stafford had with the Lions that same season. Not great but better than the Redskins suffered with Grossman's 4.4% and John Beck's 3% that same season. McCoy started 13 games in 2011 so he was producing slightly over 1 INT pergame for the Browns pretty consistently with only 3 games sans INTs. His TD/INT ration improved with 14 TDs and 11 INTs to 1.27, again for reference, the same as Matt Hasselback at the Titans and Mike Vick with the Eagles in 2011. (Grossman was at 0.8 and beck at 0.5 for the Skins if you're wondering.)

2012 and 2013 he had only 18n total pass attempts with 1 TD and no INTs .

Now flash forward to this season where all of our QBs have been starters.

Griffin has 3 INTs in 119 attempts a 2.5% INT ratio-slightly better than last season's 2.6%. 2 TDs to 3 INTs, admittedly not a good ratio however.

He has fumbled 4 times with 2 of those fumbles lost which is also not good. (There is a hopeful note about this at the end of this post)

McCoy has 1 INT in 42 attempts and a pretty decent 2.4% INT percentage and a 1.0 TD/INT ratio which is not too bad.

Cousins this season has a slightly better(?) 1.1 TD/INT ratio-10 TDs to 9 INTs.

His INT percentage by attempts is at a not very commendable 4.4% however his results are also skewed by the 4 INTs against the Giants and 3 against the Cardinals.


I'm not trying to pick at you, SC, just nuancing the stats a bit to give, I think, a clearer piture of the situation.

Oh, that hopeful note about QB fumbles? We get to face one of the worst in the NFL with Andrew Luck-10 fumbles in 10 games. Jay Cutler is the only worse one with 11 fumbles. Maybe we can take advantage of that.


Source links:

Quarterback Interception Rates - INT%: 2013 NFL Season

Kirk Cousins Game By Game Stats and Performance - Washington Redskins - ESPN

Colt McCoy NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

It is all good Serv

I went with career stats because it does give you a view of Colt when he was starting, and close to the same amount of games that Griffin has and roughly with the same amount of experience.

Colt played one good game this year, but that doesn't mean he will continue to do so, just look at Cousins....

By stats and win loss records we have 3 pretty shitty QB's unfortunately.......



I went back and looked up career int % and touchdown % because you made me curious.

Int% Griffin 2.1, Cousins 4.7, and McCoy 2.8
TD% McCoy 3.0, Cousins 4.4, and Griffin 3.9

 

[fansince62]

I'm so freaking depressed...

cmon now...you telling me that after 20+ years you haven't hardened somewhat to the realities of professional football in Washington?!!

it's frustrating.....but it is a definite pattern!!

 

[Hog Fever]

you see no connection between Robert's performance and the performance of the o-line? ..... the stats assume uncorrelated events. like most stats..they can be bent to tell whatever story the advocate prefers. AND STATS...ONE LEARNS IN STATS 101...ARE NOT EXPLANATIONS.

Everything is connected, but I don't think the line was blocking harder for Kirk than they do for Robert and kirk is nowhere near the athlete Robert is. I would never question Robert's toughness or willingness to work hard. I simply question his skill set and, more alarmingly, our front office's evaluation of that skill set and how it would translate to the pro game. It doesn't fit now, nor has it ever, into a traditional pro style offense. That's my opinion but the evidence is starting to add up. I'm sure as hell not rooting for it to be that way.

I think I mentioned that our offensive line isn't anywhere close to dominant (and I think should be a priority to improve) BUT to put it all on them without Robert taking his part of the blame is not looking at the complete picture. Manning reads a defense and gets rid of the ball quickly when needed and hardly ever takes a big hit. Robert holds on the ball too long and takes a crushing sack or he throws off his back foot and slings one into the turf. I hate using Manning as an example but the guy is not a great athlete, can't throw a decent spiral anymore and has a neck held together like an erector set, yet he still manages to get the ball where it needs to be and, more importantly, quickly when needed. It makes his line look really good when they're probably just average (except Clady of course, who is an all-pro). He did the same thing in Indy. Our running game is better than theirs though (yippie!).

The stats (yes stats) tell us that Robert has gotten sacked this year at more than twice the rate Kirk does and his TD totals are much lower as well with the same amount of starts. To be fair Kirk has thrown a lot more interceptions in the same span. I haven't studied every sack like I'm sure the coaches have but holding on to the ball too long and improper drop depths on pass sets leads to sacks almost as much as terrible right tackles do (Polumbus). It's essential that the O-line knows where a QB is going to be so the protection is set up properly and the timing of the routes are correct. It's rarely as simple as "block the guy in front of you" in the NFL. A QB in the wrong place can mess the RB up when he tries to pass block too.

I'd love to see Robert be successful and remain in DC as our QB for the next 12 years, but I just don't see it. I don't blame Robert as much as I blame the front office. His skill set is the same he showed up with from college. We've established that in the read option offense his career will be very brief and in a pro-style offense he looks lost and doesn't seem to be making progress towards figuring it out. It doesn't make him a bad guy or anything, he just has the wrong skill set to be an NFL caliber QB. Join the club. Shanahan figured that out and it still ended up costing him his job. Gruden has apparently figured that out too. Question is what do we as an organization do now?

 

[MikeSr619]

I remember we used to play a lot out of shotgun but that doesn't feel like the case anymore. That could help the sack issues as well

 

[ntotoro]

cmon now...you telling me that after 20+ years you haven't hardened somewhat to the realities of professional football in Washington?!!

it's frustrating.....but it is a definite pattern!!

I'm depressed because I'm 41 years old and my formative years were spent seeing this team do no wrong.

I'm depressed because we're entering the third decade of them doing little right.

I'm depressed because even when we thought the team was righting the ship, it turned out to be the Bermuda Triangle.

Nick

 

[Boone]

Amen Nick. You've got plenty of company brother.

 

[Win4us]

No doubt most of these cats will be resigned but anyone starting a wish list yet?

NFL Trade Rumors - 2015 NFL Free Agents List | NFL Trade Rumors

Some recognizable lineman on here I'd LOVE our team to nab.

 

[Elephant]

So I took some time to scan through the game again because I was lamb basted for suggesting Griffin did not have a bad game. I didn't even say he had a good game...just that it wasn't bad.

For one series, he looked pretty good. A few times throughout the game, he hit on plays that were designed to get him in open space.

Overall, he sucked.

Yeah! Yeah! Yeah! I know...I know! The OL sucks, he didn't have time, but we are left wondering how much was his fault and how much was poor pass pro. Was Robert making the wrong drops again? Was he missing the reads at the line of scrimmage that he should have recognized and reacted? Did he get so scared he was incapable of seeing the open receiver and not making the throw when he had time?

I know Moses missed a couple of times...against one of the best in the league. I know even Kory Lichtensteiger got blown up a few times. Do you guys remember how bad it was last year when we played them? We got demolished.

But...we had a 4th quarter lead. With the game on the line, Robert Griffin panics and throws 2 poor passes with enough time to get those passes off.

11 for 19 for 106 yards

Russell Wilson got sacked 6 times yesterday...how many yards did he throw? How many yards did he run?

17-22 for 211
10 rushes for 73 yards

It's not just the OL people.

 

[McD5]

Guess who has the best O-line (pass blocking) in the league this year?

Oakland. They're 1-10.

Oh our O-line sucks. It all starts up front. O-line is killing us.

Many of our fans are stuck in 1982.

 

[Cycleans]

I'd say Dallas has the best Oline.

 

[Elephant]

Guess who has the best O-line (pass blocking) in the league this year?

Oakland. They're 1-10.

Oh our O-line sucks. It all starts up front. O-line is killing us.

Many of our fans are stuck in 1982.

Now you're getting ridiculous again.

 

[fansince62]

Now you're getting ridiculous again.

we're stuck in the 1980s El - we care about winning!

you know.....the grass on the Raiders' home field is green. They're 1-10. Oh our grass is green too. it all starts with the turf. the turf is killing us.

many of our analysts are stuck in strawman irrelevance. certainly they enjoy entertaining the rest of us though!!!

 

[Primus Porcus]

we're stuck in the 1980s El - we care about winning!

you know.....the grass on the Raiders' home field is green. They're 1-10. Oh our grass is green too. it all starts with the turf. the turf is killing us.

many of our analysts are stuck in strawman irrelevance. certainly they enjoy entertaining the rest of us though!!!

You mean like Kirk Cousins being 3rd in YPA, ahead of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning?

 

[servumtuum]

Who has the best OL? Well, that sounds like a nice complicated question. I mean, how do you want to compare OLs in a manner that they can be ranked as one being better than another? That can be dfficult depending on how you want to measure such things.

I'll offer one though. Actually I'll offer two.

How about sack percentage and percentage of time a running play gets stuffed behing the line of scrimmage? They sound kind of reasonable because they both are a measurement of how badly the OL acts like a seive.

I submit the Denver Broncos OL.

First, they rank #2 behind the Titans in only 7.2% of their running attempts being stopped behind the line of scrimmage and have the lowest percente of pass plays in which the QB being sacked at 2.6%.

And this is Peyton Manning, remember-not exactly the youngest or most mobile QB in the league so QB mobility fades into the background somewhat as an alternate explanation of a low sack percentage here.


In case you're wondering where the Redskins are on this list, well, we're 27th in sack percentage at 8.3% and-and this one is more telling I think-26th in percentage of run attempts being stuffed at 10.8%.

Source: Team Stuffed Percentage: 2014 NFL Season


Sacked Percentage: 2014 NFL Season


Just a thought. I do try to be helpful. :tickled_pink:

 

[Primus Porcus]

You know, I don't think it's a coincidence that quick release offenses are prone to high INT rates.

You may be sold on this offense, but I'm not.

ok... i was cracking a joke about a skewed stat like Oakland's offensive line being 1st in the league.

 

[fansince62]

You mean like Kirk Cousins being 3rd in YPA, ahead of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning?

no..I mean like an analysis that isn't so braindead - not a probe at you or anyone else - as to rely on a single stat. I'm all for simplifying complexity...but not to the point where it becomes simpleminded.

 

[McD5]

Now you're getting ridiculous again.

Best pass-blocking offensive line?

Fewest sacks YTD for 2014:

1. Oakland Raiders--12 sacks allowed.
Team Record, 1 Win 10 Losses.

What's ridiculous is that so many fans focus only on their own team. They don't watch a lot of other games.

I'd be willing to bet that less than 5% of Redskins fans have even watched a single Oakland game this season. I'd bet a very large amount of money that less than 1% of Redskins fans have watched even 2 Oakland games this season.

I'd bet less than .001% of Redskins fans can even name a single O-lineman on Oakland.

So what would possibly make them qualified to give an opinion on our O-line?

Because of this, they have no idea what they are watching, or how it compares to the rest of the league.

It's that same 99% of fans who say things like "our O-line is awful." They don't even know what an average O-line looks like.

That kind of team-centric viewing produces comments that are as ignorant as a person who has eaten only one cheeseburger this year, but then proclaims that McDonalds makes the best cheeseburger in the country.