The Jayden Daniels Tracker

But I think that potential is the key difference. We can envision him and a bunch of the other defensive free agents being able to ascend to a higher level. Do we think the offensive guys we've mentioned our ready to take a leap and become a star?

Sure, I don't see it different the idea of Oweh versus Pierce. Similar idea on opposite sides of the ball. And if you are going to trust that Peters nailed it on one, and distrust his instinct on the other -- how can we make the case that we trust him period? Either you trust him or you don't. IMO if the answer is we just trust whatever happened in the end to be the perfect outcome, the chases were perfect and heck the misses were perfect too -- feels a bit Larry Michaelish to me.


Not saying this is how you feel, I know you want a Wr, just saying I have a hard time with the theory that a GM's hits and misses were both all for the best if the idea is we trust that GM.
 
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I don't get your argument.

If we trust Peters that he saw greater upside potential in Oweh than Pierce and so signed Oweh and eventually bowed out on Pierce that's a sign we don't trust Peters?
 
I don't get your argument.

If we trust Peters that he saw greater upside potential in Oweh than Pierce and so signed Oweh and eventually bowed out on Pierce that's a sign we don't trust Peters?

He didn't bow out on Pierce. Pierce bowed out.
 
I'll say what's my guess?

They privately don't think they can make a run in 2026 otherwise Peters would likely press Harris to go beyond his cash budget and Harris strikes me a good enough owner to go along with it if his GM felt that strongly about the roster.

So Peters is biding his time for 2027, when its more of an all in effort and then if need be he'd press Harris to go beyond the cash budget if necessary.

That's fine as long as this round 3 of Jayden, this season, works with below average weapons in all likelihood and there isn't another round of risking him more for injury and or lol we see another video from Kurt Warner about Jayden's "regression".
 
He didn't bow out on Pierce. Pierce bowed out.
Do you know this?

At some point, Peters said, "No mas." Could he have come up with a number that Pierce couldn't say "no" to? Yes, he could have. Sorry, I disagree with your interpretation here.
 
Do you know this?

At some point, Peters said, "No mas." Could he have come up with a number that Pierce couldn't say "no" too? Sorry, I disagree with your interpretation here.

Keim has talked about this in his podcasts. This team was willing to go 30 million plus according to him among others. They were all in. But in short, Pierce wanted to stay. If the Colts didn't come through with a big offer, he would have signed here. It was nothing about a bidding war, and Peters said he's out. It was about Pierce loving Indy and being BFF with Jones so everything equal or close enough he would stay. Actually this was a story even pre Fa that Pierce wanted to stay in Indy so it won't be easy to pry him away.

"According to sources with knowledge of the team's thinking, Washington would have pursued Indianapolis wideout Alec Pierce had he not opted to stay with Indianapolis before the legal negotiating period began," Keim writes. "One source with knowledge of the situation said Pierce 'absolutely' would have signed with the Commanders if free.
 
Also, from what Keim among others have talked about, it wasn't Pierce versus Oweh. They wanted a top WR and an DE. They were after Hendrickson, too.

But when they veered to Doubs and missed out, they switched to Chig.

So if the idea here is have Peters' back. The way I'd do it with the narrative out there is he gets it, he knows they need a WR, they were willing to pay big for Pierce and then later Doubs. It just didn't work out.

And then my segue if I were defending him some more would be, he doesn't think Diggs is worth giving 12 -15 million a year.
 
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Just to finish the exercise on WR. If I am piecing things together, with narratives and adding my own guesses to it. I'll put myself in Peters shoes, and give the best possible spin.

A. We sucked in 2025, don't expect a big run in 2026 but they will be better, so the urgency that some have we don't share it. But wait to 2027, you'll see it.

B. Swung hard at the two best WRs on the market in our eyes. Heck we were willing to go 30 or more for Pierce and outbid (according to some one in the national media, forgetting whom) for Doubs. It just didn't work out.

C. Diggs is just a rental, and would cost more. If I thought SB in 2026, fine, but I don't.

D. I am working with Harris' cash budget, I parked 10 million for Aiyuk and am sticking with it. I don't want to push Harris to exceeed the cash budget if I don't think it turns into a SB. I'll bide my time and do that ask next year.

E. Sticking with Aiyuk. If he hits, imagine that? Prime Aiyuk is a stud. And it gives you someone to replace Terry as the new #1 considering he's not old like Diggs.

F. The Wrs aren't hot but they weren't hot in 2024 either when we made a run. So we could still get lucky and catch all the breaks like we did in 2024 and if we don't so be it, watch us fly then in 2027
 
Just to finish the exercise on WR. If I am piecing things together, with narratives and adding my own guesses to it. I'll put myself in Peters shoes, and give the best possible spin.
I could see this being a fairly realistic take on the landscape. If I was to take the spin down a notch and maybe add slightly to the context…
A. We sucked in 2025, don't expect a big run in 2026 but they will be better, so the urgency that some have we don't share it. But wait to 2027, you'll see it.
I’d argue the urgency was there - see the pursuit of Pierce, Doubs, Hendrickson, Woolen. With youth as a consideration, we also landed (arguably) one of the top DEs and LBs, and the top TE. Quality 1 year guys were brought in to raise the rotation at DE, and to improve competition and depth elsewhere.
B. Swung hard at the two best WRs on the market in our eyes. Heck we were willing to go 30 or more for Pierce and outbid (according to some one in the national media, forgetting whom) for Doubs. It just didn't work out.
Does feel like they pivoted.
C. Diggs is just a rental, and would cost more. If I thought SB in 2026, fine, but I don't.
I have to wonder if that pivot also factors in 1) future money (mainly for Daniels) and 2) letting the young guys have a chance to step up. Risky, but at least it’s not about relying on one young guy’s potential because there’s competition between the young guys, plus vets as insurance.

If I had to guess, Peters isn’t against signing Diggs. I suspect that he’s factoring in more than some fans are. In other words, his calculus goes beyond - we have money, Diggs was productive last year, we’re lacking proven production.

It could very well be a mistake though, I’m certainly not saying “Peters knows better”. Fans (well, some fans anyway) are often right.
D. I am working with Harris' cash budget, I parked 10 million for Aiyuk and am sticking with it. I don't want to push Harris to exceeed the cash budget if I don't think it turns into a SB. I'll bide my time and do that ask next year.
If the cash thing really is a deal and a factor here, there’s maybe added risk in pushing too hard? It’s tough to expect 2 new schemes/coordinators and so many new pieces to get us to the SB. If he stays in his lane, 8-9 (for example) is a stepping-stone. If he pushes Harris, that 8-9 record is a failure and now means firing coaches, and a lack of stability for the org, especially Daniels, let alone a(nother) black mark against Peters.
E. Sticking with Aiyuk. If he hits, imagine that? Prime Aiyuk is a stud. And it gives you someone to replace Terry as the new #1 considering he's not old like Diggs.
Yeah, Aiyuk is a long shot (that keeps getting longer), but as you say, if he hits, he could also be a future piece as well. Doesn’t really affect your young slot guys either. Personally, I have 0 expectations there… it’s essentially a lotto ticket.
F. The Wrs aren't hot but they weren't hot in 2024 either when we made a run. So we could still get lucky and catch all the breaks like we did in 2024 and if we don't so be it, watch us fly then in 2027
Only marginally different, but rather than “watch us fly then in 2027”, “we’re going to improve this year while we establish the foundation for our new offense and defense. These schemes work well with our personnel, we just have to give the inexperienced coordinators (and personnel) a runway. If we do improve, then stability at O and D should give us the chance to take a significant step forward next year.”

Anyway, I’m not trying to champion AP and his decisions here, but I can see the logic.
 
I’d argue the urgency was there - see the pursuit of Pierce, Doubs, Hendrickson, Woolen. With youth as a consideration, we also landed (arguably) one of the top DEs and LBs, and the top TE. Quality 1 year guys were brought in to raise the rotation at DE, and to improve competition and depth elsewhere.

Some good points, none of them really conflict with anything I said.

Clearly, they viewed edge rusher and wide receiver as the two code-red positions this offseason. Peters all but said as much in his press conferences.

The difference is that they had more viable avenues to solve edge. They wanted Pierce, but he chose to stay put with his current team. Keim rarely speculates recklessly, so when he said Washington was willing to go north of $30 million if necessary, I believe him. Pierce simply preferred the in-house deal.

At receiver, the story was similar. By most accounts, they were aggressive in pursuing Doubs, but he chose New England. Meanwhile while they were chasing Doubs, Shaheed re-signed, Nailor landed elsewhere, and many expected Aiyuk to become available at that time, but that never materialized.

Where I fault Peters is not for recognizing the problem, but for failing to pivot quickly enough once Plan A and Plan B fell through. When they realized they weren't getting Hendrickson, they immediately shifted gears and kept attacking edge. I wish they had shown that same urgency and creativity at receiver.

At the same time, I can't pretend he has his head in the sand about the position. He clearly understands it's a major issue. The evidence is right there in the players they pursued and the resources they were reportedly willing to commit.

The reason I'm not giving him a complete pass is because this isn't a one-year problem. This is now a three-year issue. At some point, intentions matter less than results.

Still, I don't think the situation is hopeless.

In fact, if Peters were reading this thread, I highly doubt he'd be siding with the people arguing that receiver is overrated or that a WR isn't that important compared to name that other spot. Teams don't prepare to spend $30-plus million on Pierce or reportedly outbid another franchise for Doubs if they view wide receiver as a luxury.

So in fairness to Peters, while I think he underestimated the position during his first two years, I don't believe that's true anymore. This offseason showed that he understands the urgency. The problem is that recognition came after two years of too much neglect, and now we're entering a third season without a proven solution.

My guess is that if they get burned again at receiver this year, the response next offseason will be dramatic. Just as they attacked edge rusher relentlessly this offseason after identifying it as a weakness, they'll likely go after wide receiver with the same level of aggression in Year 4.

And frankly, if this season plays out the way many fear it might, they won't have much choice. But at worst I don't expect this problem to persist. Maybe, hopefully, they get lucky this season at WR. I don't rule that out. But if not, I'd bet they attack the spot with a vengence in 2027.
 
.

Only marginally different, but rather than “watch us fly then in 2027”, “we’re going to improve this year while we establish the foundation for our new offense and defense. These schemes work well with our personnel, we just have to give the inexperienced coordinators (and personnel) a runway. If we do improve, then stability at O and D should give us the chance to take a significant step forward next year.”

Anyway, I’m not trying to champion AP and his decisions here, but I can see the logic.
I actually said pretty much the same thing. That's what I mean when I say 2025 may have been disappointing, but I expect 2026 to be better.

The thing is, I can see the logic behind almost every decision Peters makes. That doesn't mean I agree with every decision, but I understand the reasoning. Peters isn't some clueless GM stumbling around in the dark. He's a smart guy with a clear process, and if I wanted to play the homer role, I could probably defend every move he's made because there is logic behind all of them.

As I've said many times, I don't think Peters is dumb. Quite the opposite. I think he's a good GM who is learning, adapting, and getting better. Has he been flawless? Not even close. Has he been crushing every move for three straight years? No. But overall, I'd say he's been solid, and trending upward.

Ironically, I also don't think Peters would agree with some of the explanations fans use to defend his offseason decisions. That's part of why I've pushed back so hard on some of the arguments. I feel like I've spent too much time debating explanations that don't even reflect what Peters himself probably believes.

For example, I don't think this offseason was driven by a belief that wide receiver isn't a big time premium spot. The evidence suggests the opposite. They pursued receivers. They were willing to spend money. They explored options. To me, this wasn't about devaluing the position. It was more about how events unfolded and how the board broke against them.

My criticism isn't about intent. I think the intent was there.

My criticism is about execution.

But it is what it is. Just means I am not booking my SB trip this season, I'll wait to 2027.
 
But I think that potential is the key difference. We can envision him and a bunch of the other defensive free agents being able to ascend to a higher level. Do we think the offensive guys we've mentioned our ready to take a leap and become a star?

The point is why do you trust AP’s projection for one player and not the other? AP tried to pay Pierce $30M+

The answer is because one was successfully landed and is on our roster and the other was not. You’re just utilizing different techniques of coping as fans always do. You’d be doing the opposite if we landed Pierce but not Oweh.

You’d be making the same “we didn’t sign a WR2 but can create the production of a WR2 in the aggregate” argument but at LB/EDGE instead, talking about how we can get more of the young developmental LB’s on the field now, rotate them a lot, use them to their strengths and manufacture LB production and a pass rush that way. Instead of agonizing over McCaffrey/Lane/Dyami/Burks the conversation would be more about the development and potential snaps of Magee/JJB/Drake Jackson/Medrano

It’s the Way Of The Homer
 
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I actually said pretty much the same thing. That's what I mean when I say 2025 may have been disappointing, but I expect 2026 to be better.
Yep, that’s why I said “only marginally different”. Just a slightly different feel.
The thing is, I can see the logic behind almost every decision Peters makes. That doesn't mean I agree with every decision, but I understand the reasoning. Peters isn't some clueless GM stumbling around in the dark. He's a smart guy with a clear process, and if I wanted to play the homer role, I could probably defend every move he's made because there is logic behind all of them.

As I've said many times, I don't think Peters is dumb. Quite the opposite. I think he's a good GM who is learning, adapting, and getting better. Has he been flawless? Not even close. Has he been crushing every move for three straight years? No. But overall, I'd say he's been solid, and trending upward.

Ironically, I also don't think Peters would agree with some of the explanations fans use to defend his offseason decisions. That's part of why I've pushed back so hard on some of the arguments. I feel like I've spent too much time debating explanations that don't even reflect what Peters himself probably believes.

For example, I don't think this offseason was driven by a belief that wide receiver isn't a big time premium spot. The evidence suggests the opposite. They pursued receivers. They were willing to spend money. They explored options. To me, this wasn't about devaluing the position. It was more about how events unfolded and how the board broke against them.

My criticism isn't about intent. I think the intent was there.

My criticism is about execution.

But it is what it is. Just means I am not booking my SB trip this season, I'll wait to 2027.
Yeah, I think it’s a reasonable stance. I’m only slightly different in that I don’t carry any blame for execution this offseason, which you mention with the “how the board broke against them” comment (regarding both draft and FA).

I do generally disagree with comments about Peters not being aggressive, being arrogant last offseason, the idea that all of the potential this year needs to work for the offense to succeed (the numerous “IFs”), that people are being homers or just coping if they think things are fine (if not ideal), or that our offense is screwed if we don’t sign Diggs, etc.

I do agree that Terry going down would be a massive blow, and that Daniels needs guys he trusts so he doesn’t hold the ball (and so take hits). I’m of two minds about the defense. I think it should improve, and so can be a big help, but I also feel like it might not affect Daniels’ play as much as some have suggested.

I also think that there are a lot of avenues for this season to go wrong. But I’m also excited about the potential for this to be a foundational season in terms of getting quality schemes and coaching in place, young guys having room to grow/contribute, the upside of guys like Conerly, JCM, Styles, and Williams, and the addition of a number of guys in their prime like Oweh, Okonkwo, Chanel. I’m not super optimistic about the season record-wise though.
 
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Yep, that’s why I said “only marginally different”. Just a slightly different feel.

Yeah, I think it’s a reasonable stance. I’m only slightly different in that I don’t carry any blame for execution this offseason, which you mention with the “how the board broke against them” comment (regarding both draft and FA).

I do generally disagree with comments about Peters not being aggressive, being arrogant last offseason, the idea that all of the potential this year needs to work for the offense to succeed (the numerous “IFs”, that people are being homers or just coping if they think things are fine (if not ideal), or that our offense is screwed if we don’t sign Diggs, etc.

I do agree that Terry going down would be a massive blow, and that Daniels needs guys he trusts so he doesn’t hold the ball (and so take hits). I’m of two minds about the defense. I think it should improve, and so can be a big help, but I also feel like it might not affect Daniels’ play as much as some have suggested.

I also think that there are a lot of avenues for this season to go wrong. But I’m also excited about the potential for this to be a foundational season in terms of getting quality schemes and coaching in place, young guys having room to grow/contribute, the upside of guys like Conerly, JCM, Styles, and Williams, and the addition of a number of guys in their prime like Oweh, Okonkwo, Chanel. I’m not super optimistic about the season record-wise though.

As I've said before, my issue isn't the intent—it's the execution. And the reason I focus on execution is because we're now in Year 3. If this were Year 1, I'd be far 100% forgiving. But by Year 3, results and roster-building execution matter more than process alone.

As for last offseason, I don't really buy the idea that they were especially aggressive. If I remember correctly, they were among the top teams in cap space, yet finished around 14th in free-agent spending. Teams like New England spent roughly three times as much. I wouldn't characterize it as an all-in approach. I know some agents didn't feel they were because that made it into Standig's agent survey.

Ironically, after all the back-and-forth on this topic, I think my biggest disagreement with some fans is that I may actually think this roster is better than they do. I believe this team is a significant move or two away from legitimately competing with teams like the Rams and Eagles.

That's why I'm not interested in building my expectations around every best-case scenario hitting at once. To me, that's where fandom starts drifting into wish-casting. Every team talks itself into the same things: young players making the leap, free agents thriving in a new environment, coaches unlocking hidden potential, schemes maximizing talent. Sometimes those things happen. Sometimes they don't.

It's almost certain that at least one of the optimistic projections will come true. Maybe Chig develops into a star. Maybe another young player exceeds expectations. But it's just as likely that some of the projections fall short. Maybe Burks and McCaffrey don't develop into a legitimate No. 2 option. Maybe another player doesn't take the leap everyone expects.

So I tend to split the difference. History tells us some projections will hit, some won't, and reality usually lands somewhere in between.

The reason I have any angst about this at all is because I think this roster is close. If I thought they were still years away, none of this would bother me. I'd be perfectly content letting the process play out.

Now, it's possible Peters sees it differently. Maybe he views 2024 as more of an overachievement than a true reflection of where the roster stands. Maybe he believes it will take more than one strong offseason to fully close the gap after the shortcomings of 2025.

That's a reasonable possibility. I just happen to think they're closer than that. But I could be wrong. Just explaining my perspective and lol frankly procrastinating by musing too much on this point to keep from doing some weekend jobs I need to get to.

I have booked my trip to London. I am going to travel at least to another game. In 2024, I traveled to 4 games including a post season game. I want back on that ride. It's tough for me to get jazzed for a 9-8 season where my hopes lie on 2027.
 
Also, from what Keim among others have talked about, it wasn't Pierce versus Oweh. They wanted a top WR and an DE. They were after Hendrickson, too.

But when they veered to Doubs and missed out, they switched to Chig.

So if the idea here is have Peters' back. The way I'd do it with the narrative out there is he gets it, he knows they need a WR, they were willing to pay big for Pierce and then later Doubs. It just didn't work out.

And then my segue if I were defending him some more would be, he doesn't think Diggs is worth giving 12 -15 million a year.
To me this is clearly the way to defend Peters, basically, he may not have a budget but he doesn’t want to overpay either, because that doesn’t go anywhere good for the team. We should know.

So starting with trust for Peters when we don’t have info, the assumption is just Diggs currently wants more than Peters’ estimation of his value. Seems like a fit for need, no glaring issues, then it simply should be they can’t meet on the right numbers.

My belief may be Peters eggs are in the Aiyuk basket because we are good enough for 2026. Go all in with new coordinators may not be the smartest move.

To the thread topic: the issue is the rookie contract. One of the next two years needs ti be all in. This year’s tracker is going to be tilted towards JD individual effort maybe more than we would like.
 
So Peters is biding his time for 2027, when its more of an all in effort and then if need be he'd press Harris to go beyond the cash budget if necessary.

That's a hell of a gamble by AP if true considering we're breaking in a new OC and DC in 2026. We are so screwed if those two falter this year.
 
That's a hell of a gamble by AP if true considering we're breaking in a new OC and DC in 2026. We are so screwed if those two falter this year.

I think so, too. I do think any team that has the QB can go on a run. Everything breaks your way and it can happen. And I don't rule it out with this team because to me Jayden is that good. But yeah I'd go all in, versus basically 75% there.

If I had to pick how they can do it. Aiyuk signs and he's the 2023 version. And A. Williams kills it from the jump. Possible? Sure. I wouldn't though leave it to chance

To me this is clearly the way to defend Peters, basically, he may not have a budget but he doesn’t want to overpay either, because that doesn’t go anywhere good for the team. We should know.

So starting with trust for Peters when we don’t have info, the assumption is just Diggs currently wants more than Peters’ estimation of his value. Seems like a fit for need, no glaring issues, then it simply should be they can’t meet on the right numbers.

My belief may be Peters eggs are in the Aiyuk basket because we are good enough for 2026. Go all in with new coordinators may not be the smartest move.

To the thread topic: the issue is the rookie contract. One of the next two years needs ti be all in. This year’s tracker is going to be tilted towards JD individual effort maybe more than we would like.

I'd say at least 50% chance Peters would do more but he's restricted. That's part of the reason why I am argumentative at times with those that rationalize what they are doing at WR. Because I suspect at least 50% chance Peters wouldn't agree with the rationalizations people give as to embracing the status quo.

But I do know those here who carp about them not going hard enough at WR and or exploting enough Jayden's contract are in the majority, not the minority. Add Warren Sharp to the long pile of people who doesn't love this supporting cast and brought up squandering Jayden's rookie contract.

But considering both Peters' rhetoric after the season and free agency chases -- there is nothing about any of it that makes me think he's privately thinking that McCaffrey will shock the world, or people are sleeping on Van Jefferson or hey the need for a #2 is overblown.

It seems much more lkely he feels snake bitten and or restricted with a cash budget that is almost spent.
 
at least not last, though lol hopefully Dyami not a big part of Jacksonville's numbers because I know he had his share of drops





NE strong with avoiding error and if I recall also had the best seperation numbers among WRs.
 
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If I had to pick how they can do it. Aiyuk signs and he's the 2023 version. And A. Williams kills it from the jump. Possible? Sure. I wouldn't though leave it to chance
Major, major longshot, but man, that would give us two #1 receivers and a good/great slot receiver… that’d be quite the turnaround, lol.
I'd say at least 50% chance Peters would do more but he's restricted. That's part of the reason why I am argumentative at times with those that rationalize what they are doing at WR. Because I suspect at least 50% chance Peters wouldn't agree with the rationalizations people give as to embracing the status quo.
What I don’t quite get is - we were going after Oweh/Hendrickson and Pierce, and Pierce’s offer surely came with 60+mil in guarantees… so where did that cash go?
But I do know those here who carp about them not going hard enough at WR and or exploting enough Jayden's contract are in the majority, not the minority. Add Warren Sharp to the long pile of people who doesn't love this supporting cast and brought up squandering Jayden's rookie contract.
I don’t think AP has done enough in general. I do feel like he took his shot this year and it just didn’t work out.

I do like that generally, outside of Jefferson and Wise (on super cheap deals), he’s gone after guys in their prime. Which makes me wonder if Diggs’ age plays into things? I have zero expectations for Aiyuk given all of the question marks, but he at least hits the combo of proven production, not super expensive, and at a decent age.
But considering both Peters' rhetoric after the season and free agency chases -- there is nothing about any of it that makes me think he's privately thinking that McCaffrey will shock the world, or people are sleeping on Van Jefferson or hey the need for a #2 is overblown.
If I had to guess (if we don’t chase Diggs), he’s pivoted to being “ok” with the youth (and Jefferson) competing after missing out on his initial targets.
Of course, part of that is that I see the bar to reach (and hopefully clear) as being what Zaccheus and Brown offered in 2024. I see a fairly decent chance this group can provide that.
It seems much more lkely he feels snake bitten and or restricted with a cash budget that is almost spent.
 


A few questions...

1) Has Jayden been practicing with a camera on his helmet for a while? (was this a thing last year?)

2) Do we think this is for play back by the staff to "watch film" from the perspective of the player?

3) Wouldn't it be pretty cool if they were able to capture 360 feed so you could feed the film back into Jayden's VR tool with live play feedback?
 

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