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The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall
- Thread starter Canadian Hog
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on ES we typically did top 15-20 players (mix of rounds), I did it here last year, I'll do it again.
Still deciding: Antonio Williams, Jacob Rodriguez, Bernard, Roush maybe Love but it feels too obvious, got ways to go but I've picked up on my watching
Skinfanjon
The UDFA
Aaaaand we’re back to they’re all awesome and can’t bust.
Thanks for digging it up. I am not really married to any metric. But I do like to go through them.
PFF which actually created that YPR is actually high on both players so clearly they aren't slaves to that specific metric alone. And Boston registers very well on a bunch of PFf metrics including his yard per route on the aggregate was a good score.
Its really not that.
Its hard for me to explain my mindset towards this.
Basically im a believer that the consensus is right more often than its wrong.
Its like that show, who wants to be a millionaire, when you polled the audience the highest percentage was almost always the correct answer but phone a friend was wrong all the time.
At 7 we're guaranteed to have a shot at a guy who is a consensus top 15 pick in any draft and if we choose him we got a good shot at getting an excellent player, but only a shot which is why I said on paper in my original post.
If we go the alternative route which is against the consensus, which is what Rivera loved to do, we significantly lower our chances of getting a great player but not to zero, theres still a chance, forbes, Dotson, davis, they were all good prospects with a chance to be great but not anywhere near worthy of where they were selected.
I just want us to take a guy who is widely considered worthy of being selected where they were (aka not a reach) and increase our chances and i think that no matter how the draft plays out we have a shot at one of those guys (the guys i listed in my previous post) as long as peters doesn't go outside the box.
If he does, I pray he's right because he could be but historically we haven't been good at all at going outside the box.
Skinfanjon
The UDFA
I always appreciate seeing this kind of data, but can’t help but put more weight on the zone numbers. Here’s my thought why…
1- it’s great that he can block, it’s not nothing, but it’s also not what I care about in a 1st round WR
2- I’m medium on pff grades in general. I’ve read enough about their process to be somewhat dubious, but it’s also a detailed collection of data. Again not high or low, I’ll say medium and would accept he’s been a solid man beater.
3- passer rating is a better stat than grading in some ways. It’s also exclusive to this class, which is considered one of the weakest at offensive skill positions in quite awhile.
4- contested catch, not exactly how I want them to make a living. Would prefer it to be a bonus. I’ll stay medium in this and would want to see it overlaid with better classes to look for trends.
5- I’ll admit to not knowing much about how GAS is calculated. Again though, there’s no scores here and this is not a good class in general and especially at higher end athleticism at WR. Would hazard a guess it’s a new stat for them, feel like I’d have seen it before.
YPRR matters to me a ton more than these types of stats. It’s stickier and the data set shows all 1st and 2nd rounders going back to 2019, starting from the worst. Granted, it cuts off and I’d like to see the rest of the list. Those are incredibly low numbers for both Boston and Conception though and horrible company.
I’d like to be convinced otherwise because I have some dynasty picks in the range they will flirt with, but these stats don’t really move me much because the other one is so incredibly bad and a much better metric in my view. I’m not trying to reflexively dump on them and appreciate you posting them, but again, would need to see more. I haven’t done much of my own stat digging yet but probably will before long.
Skinfanjon
The UDFA
Big fan of Harmon’s work, especially when it confirms my priors. His analysis is always one I take into account. I generally start with highlights just to get a sense of a guy, then the graphs I see from the Football Insights twitter account, scout types reviews and loss, then more detailed cutups, and Harmon as a bit of a guard rail. I always spend a lot of time on receivers due to playing so much dynasty.
I get what you’re saying. Don’t necessarily disagree, depending how you define reach. And I think what constitutes a reach depends a lot on the quality of the draft. The top guys have been analyzed a lot in this thread. Some I think are bad picks, either in general or for this team. I’d imagine you’d consider a guy like Lemon reachy, which yeah a little, I agree. Which if the nightmare occurs, I want a trade back first and foremost. It’s not like we’d be reaching over other skill guys to get him though. There’s a consensus of three legit WRs in this draft. Tate is probably pushed up from being a top 15-25 pick into top 5-10 consideration because of the weak class. Tyson is so hard because of his injury history, but he’s probably late 1st/mid 2nd in most classes. Same with Lemon, but he’s penalized for being a slot guy ala Tyson’s injuries.
This IS a weak class though and not just at WR. So if things go a certain way, you’re already looking at guys like Downs or Bain (who I consider reaches in the top 10 anyway but have been ordained) versus a reachy guy like Lemon. And you just can’t convince me the first two help this team more than a legit WR for Jayden. Delane is the one guy in that scenario I’d be fine with but I’d still be really bummed we didn’t get a weapon.
My book: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-outcast-kirk-krutilla/1149391963 I hope it adds to confusion
Context is king IMO for evaluating any player.
You are going with YPRR against zone as the key metric. I get it if you are a slot-Y WR
When you are a boundry X WR, like Boston, its more about beating man. If you are playing Y and to some extent Z, zone becomes more interesting especilly Y because you are navigating through the clutter in the middle of the field and finding the soft spots.
IF PFF who actually invented the YPRR metric, actually isn't living and dying with Boston's YPRR grade against zone and is highlighting his grade against man -- must mean something? To use an analogy, If I invented name that meal that i came up with the recipe for, you'd figure someone else doesn't have the better read on how to use that recipe and in what context better than I do. So I take PFF especially seriously when I am specifically using their metrics for some all encompassing wide brush about a player. So if they aren't doing it with their own brush on one of their own metrics to give a sweeping judge of that player, why should I?
But regardless of all of that, if you spend time watching Boston, he's hard not to like for reasons I've detailed before.
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Random thoughts:
Mendoza isn’t the best trait guy, but he has the “it factor”. Nothing bothers him. He comes up big in the clutch, he protects the ball and is tough as nails. He’s going to be good.
Ty Simpson has some solid film and some not so solid. But the biggest obstacle he faces is a lack of starts. There is a strong correlation to starts in college and success in the NFL. At QB it makes a lot of sense - you have to play football to get better. He should have stayed in school.
The RBs after Love don’t have anything close to the same upside.
Receivers are deep with potential but there is a lot of bust potential there. I think the highest hit potential is: Tate, Sarratt, Chris Bell, Lemon (character pending).
I’m not all that impressed with the edge class as a whole. That goes against the grain… Bain and Bailey are by far the best potential prospects. After that it’s kind of a crap shoot. I like Howell, but not so much as a pure edge. I think Faulk is going to be really good long term.
DT group is lesser than most years.
Linebackers: it’s Styles, Reese, Rodriguez, Anthony Hill, Trotter, CJ Allen, and the kid from Pitt. Those are the guys I’ve seen so far that stick out.
Safety is loaded.
Delane is still being slept on.
Don’t love this tight end class.
Don’t love the OL class. Iheanachor, Fano, Mauigoa are the guys to keep an eye on at tackle. Ioane is the guard. Centers are pretty solid but mid round prospect types
Mendoza isn’t the best trait guy, but he has the “it factor”. Nothing bothers him. He comes up big in the clutch, he protects the ball and is tough as nails. He’s going to be good.
Ty Simpson has some solid film and some not so solid. But the biggest obstacle he faces is a lack of starts. There is a strong correlation to starts in college and success in the NFL. At QB it makes a lot of sense - you have to play football to get better. He should have stayed in school.
The RBs after Love don’t have anything close to the same upside.
Receivers are deep with potential but there is a lot of bust potential there. I think the highest hit potential is: Tate, Sarratt, Chris Bell, Lemon (character pending).
I’m not all that impressed with the edge class as a whole. That goes against the grain… Bain and Bailey are by far the best potential prospects. After that it’s kind of a crap shoot. I like Howell, but not so much as a pure edge. I think Faulk is going to be really good long term.
DT group is lesser than most years.
Linebackers: it’s Styles, Reese, Rodriguez, Anthony Hill, Trotter, CJ Allen, and the kid from Pitt. Those are the guys I’ve seen so far that stick out.
Safety is loaded.
Delane is still being slept on.
Don’t love this tight end class.
Don’t love the OL class. Iheanachor, Fano, Mauigoa are the guys to keep an eye on at tackle. Ioane is the guard. Centers are pretty solid but mid round prospect types
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Delane getting his share of buzz,
I am probaly going to do one long post on the TE class, I've been slowly going through them -- lack of high end studs, but in that 4th-5th round range an unusual deep crop: Bentley, Roush, Raridon, Delp, etc
RB is meh, starting to warm up some to Kytron Allen, but thinking the team passes because if they don't dig Rodriguez, to me he's similar. I can see them doubling down with a late round flier, and my candidate would be Jaydn Ott, good athlete, can catch, and sort of has that Croskey-Merritt drill where you can buy him low because he basically missed last season.
DT has a ton of nose types that I gather fits the 3-4 so wonder if they indulge. McDonald, Keenan, Hunter, Orange, Corleone
WR -- is IMO insanely deep. I am usually not that high on 3rd round type WRs but so many in this group. And the flavors of these guys are so different that's its the eye of the beholder type of thing. Though a lot of boom-busts types IMO where you can see how it works easily for said player in the pros and then also easily see how it couldn't. As to IMO the higher floor 3rd round types with less bust in them: Sarratt, A. Williams, Bernard.
Boom-bust late 2nd to early 4th: Hurst, Fields, Lane, Branch, Burks, Bell. I got to watch more of them to them to land on hard takes but they all have intriguing traits but are flawed, too IMO.
Even in that 5th round range some intriguing to me: Stribling, Eric Rivers, McAllistor.
And i am only really half way through the receivers.
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Yeah safety is intriguing, also guys tend to slip in that spot, so you might be able to get someone decent in the 5th.
Skinfanjon
The UDFA
Is PFF actually pumping Boston that hard? I honestly don’t know. The tweets you posted are from fantasy guys other than the one link.
In general though, I’d counter that by saying PFF has to smell its own farts to generate interest and clicks and subscriptions. One of their silos is to be drug dealer to fantasy bros. And they do a great job cranking out product. There’s always something to latch onto in that regard. I’ve always found them to be more of a content provider to sift through rather than great predictors of things in rankings and grades. More something to put in the soup. But YPRR has a pretty strong correlation when used as a benchmark to clear minimum standards. So I see Boston and KC barely register and it’s a big yikes for me. Admittedly though, I’ve not dug into them yet.
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I don’t think Germie makes it to the third.
Probably not. But some said the same about Terry and he did. Those 2nd round range is tricky, I thought Jon Gruden did it the best in the draft special he did with Kiper years back where he goes dude you got 100 players going in the 2nd round this year.
Especially with an early third, some 2nd round types tend to slip. And specifically for WR in this class, I can see how the more explosive WRs go early versus the high floor jack of all trades like Bernard go. But of course, I got no idea, will see. In that same genre of WRs, the slot version, I like Antonio Williams almost as much. And like you, i also like Sarratt -- especially for this team where I think it lacks red zone targets.
I watch their draft videos, Sikkema, etc, and no I wouldn't say they are pumping Boston hard but they like him. They are certainly not sayinng his YPRR grade aginst zone is lacking and that's a big red flag. Again Boston isn't a slot WR. He is an X boundary WR, playing against man is the bigger deal. And he does a lot of things very well.
As far as who is pumping him up, Logan Paulsen loves him, that's his #1 WR, the other dude doing the same is Chris Simms who also has him as his #1. I am not as enthused as they are. But I do think he's a high floor good WR in this class.
I know some have the sterotype of the big physical WR being a meh athlete. But he's a decent athlete, decent seperator. And especially for this team where the receipe against this offense last year was to shut it down by playing man and blitzing the heck out of Jayden -- having a dude who is special against man, isn't yawn to me. Ditto dudes who are special run blockers. Good in the red zone. Can return both punts and kicks.
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