The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

bombing interviews I gather would have to go beyond that weird public interview. But who knows sometimes gossip like this can be hyperbole.

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skinsinparadise said:
bombing interviews I gather would have to go beyond that weird public interview. But who knows sometimes gossip like this can be hyperbole.

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That was an extremely odd interview… I wouldn’t be surprised if he bombed behind closed doors based on that. It kind of looked like he had no media training. Other USC guys look polished so it’s almost like he just turned it down.

But we’ll see when the draft happens I guess.
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
There seems to be a pretty good consensus of the top players of the draft. I do wonder if there is going to be some "Penix" like surprise somewhere in the top 10. Nobody expected the Falcons to draft Penix as the 4th QB in 2024, especially after they just gave a truckload of money to Kirk Cousins. But it happened. There always seems to be one oddball pick. And they are impossible to predict because if they were predictable, they wouldn't be oddball picks.

With the assumption that the Raiders take Mendoza (which seems to be a good prediction), it looks like the next set of players are:

3 Edge guys, Sometimes listed as OLB sometimes Edge and sometimes DE)
David Bailey - Texas Tech
Arvell Reece - Ohio State
Rueben Bain - Miamia

OT:
Francis Mauigoa - Miami
Fano - Utah

S:
Caleb Downs - Ohio State

RB:
Jeremiyah Love

LB:
Sonny Styles - Ohio State

WR:
Carnell Tate - Ohio State

You could argue that the two best players in the draft are at the least valuable positions of this group, Love at RB and Downs at Safety.

So the question is going to be, for the teams ahead of us, how much do they place on position value? Is there going to be a mini-run on OT's because OT's are impossible to find unless you draft them, and you have greater luck at finding a RB or Safety? Or is some team just going to say, "eff it, Love/Downs are just better impact players, position doesn't matter" and take them higher.

We're really not going to know that until draft day.

However, if you exclude the 2 OTs, who I would be rather shocked if we took, really any of the other players, whoever is left, would be a huge upgrade.

I personally would love Tate or Love. As I posted (to some controversy), I'd prefer to draft offense and spend FA money on defense. Get a group of young guys around Daniels that can all grow together. That would be my preference.

But we're going to get one of those guys. Position value for this draft is really interesting. More interesting than I think it's been in recent year.
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I am just catching up from being away for a while. I don't know if his combine results were negative but I think you are under appreciating CB Delane, he is a top 10 player
 
Here are the wide receivers with similar production to Carnell Tate drafted in the first round and the only ones to have less than Tate’s 875 yards receiving their final season since 2000:

Darius Heyward Bey 609 yards 7th overall (not WR1 on his team)

AJ Green 848 yards 4th overall (WR1 on Georgia his final season)

Jalen Reagor 611 yards (not WR1 on his team) 21st overall

Jonathan Baldwin 822 yards (WR1 on his team)

Ted Ginn Jr 729 yards (WR1 on his team but him and Gonzalez had similar numbers and Ted was a dynamic returner)


That’s it fellas, that is the blueprint for what you’re looking at with taking Tate potentially number 7.

A bunch of busts and then AJ Green who was actually a number 1 at UGA facing elite corners. Not to mention, he was bigger, stronger , and faster than Tate. I’m not saying Tate isn’t going to be successful in the league, I just don’t think he’s anywhere close to deserving of a top 10 pick. Second or third rounder, sure. There are a few ELITE players in this draft and hopefully we land one at 7.
 
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skinsinparadise said:
I got to get to watching him, his seperation numbers were a red flag for me, but support of him from people I respect here and some other draftniks like McShay compels me to dive it soon.

I am getting the WR feeds, every rep from youtube/just the tape but they haven't put up Fields, yet.
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He is not great at separating and that is a red flag for me as well. He is however a contested catch monster, really good blocker and just wins on the second and third level catches. He is a big body and knows how to use that to his advantage against DB's. At 71 he would be a really nice pick to go opposite Terry and hopefully another speedy FA WR like they talk about getting
 
DWinzit said:
He is not great at separating and that is a red flag for me as well. He is however a contested catch monster, really good blocker and just wins on the second and third level catches. He is a big body and knows how to use that to his advantage against DB's. At 71 he would be a really nice pick to go opposite Terry and hopefully another speedy FA WR like they talk about getting
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I haven't watched him yet but will.
 
we've talked before about PFF being obsessed with YPRR as their fav stat as correlation to WR success

PFF Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) is one of the best efficiency metrics for wide receivers.

It answers this question:

“How many yards does a receiver generate for every route he actually runs?”
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📊 The Formula​

YPRR=Receiving YardsRoutes RunYPRR=Routes RunReceiving Yards
Not targets.
Not catches.
Routes run.

That’s what makes it powerful.

🔎 Why It’s Better Than Yards Per Catch​

Yards per catch only looks at completed passes.

YPRR measures:

  • How often you get open
  • How often you earn targets
  • How productive you are when on the field
If you run 40 routes and get targeted twice, that matters.

Example​

Player A:

  • 100 yards
  • 5 catches
  • 10 routes
YPRR = 100 ÷ 10 = 10.0 (elite, but tiny sample)

Player B:

  • 100 yards
  • 8 catches
  • 40 routes
YPRR = 100 ÷ 40 = 2.5

Player B was productive across a real workload.

What’s Considered Good?​

College WR Benchmarks​

  • 3.0+ = Elite (future 1st round territory often)
  • 2.5–3.0 = Very strong
  • 2.0–2.5 = Solid
  • Below 2.0 = Role player or inefficient

NFL Benchmarks​

  • 2.5+ = Elite season
  • 2.0–2.4 = Pro Bowl level
  • 1.6–1.9 = Solid starter
  • Under 1.5 = Replacement level

Why Scouts Love It​

It accounts for:

  • Target earning ability
  • Efficiency
  • Volume context
  • Scheme independence (somewhat)
It penalizes:

  • Guys who run lots of routes but don’t earn targets
  • Empty calorie receivers
 
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I think its beyond superficial to base grading a WR on total yards. But I'll play along for kicks. Olave with 934 yards, 14.4 YPC in his last season. Jordan Addison with 875 yards, 14.8 YPC. Tate with 875 yards and 17.2 YPC. Tate's last 2 seasons combined were more productive than Drake London's combined last two seasons.

Out of the zillion WRs I compiled stats for this draft only 4 have that elite score of 3 or above YPRR, Tate is one of them. Lemon is another by the way. And not that this metric is the be all and end all. My point is no metric is.

Tate's superpower isn't how many yards he can compile as the 2nd WR to arguably one of the best WR prospects we've seen in a decade. His superpower is making big catches down the field.

If yards were the ultimate metric, and no one gave a rats behind about anything else, then Eric McAllister, Skyler Bell, Chris Brazzell and Lemon should be vying for the #1 WR, and go top 10.

It takes me back lol it feels like the ES Terry argument all over again. Aside from the Jayden-Maye debate, there is nothing I took more heat for then I did for pushing Terry. How can anyone with just 701 yards be that great? That dude wasn't even the number 1 WR for that team. Who gives a rats behind about him making big plays down the field? Who gives a crap about his traits? I know the comeback to that, is hey Terry went in the third. The response to that is Terry today would have easily gone in the first and Tate was the better college player.

Having said that, I'd be slightly surprised if they take him. If they sign a WR in FA, I'd figure they'd address something else in the draft. Right now if I had to bet on a dude they'd take it would be Caleb Downs.
 
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Canuck said:
That could cause Downs to fall into the 10-15 range, but its one of those scenarios in a years time ppl will be lauding the team that drafts him.

Need to trust your med staff on this one.
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And l don't trust ours
 
BayouBrave86 said:
Here are the wide receivers with similar production to Carnell Tate drafted in the first round and the only ones to have less than Tate’s 875 yards receiving their final season since 2000:

Darius Heyward Bey 609 yards 7th overall (not WR1 on his team)

AJ Green 848 yards 4th overall (WR1 on Georgia his final season)

Jalen Reagor 611 yards (not WR1 on his team) 21st overall

Jonathan Baldwin 822 yards (WR1 on his team)

Ted Ginn Jr 729 yards (WR1 on his team but him and Gonzalez had similar numbers and Ted was a dynamic returner)


That’s it fellas, that is the blueprint for what you’re looking at with taking Tate potentially number 7.

A bunch of busts and then AJ Green who was actually a number 1 at UGA facing elite corners. Not to mention, he was bigger, stronger , and faster than Tate. I’m not saying Tate isn’t going to be successful in the league, I just don’t think he’s anywhere close to deserving of a top 10 pick. Second or third rounder, sure. There are a few ELITE players in this draft and hopefully we land one at 7.
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Top prospects bust all the time and you very well may be right but you're doing a little cherry picking with your stats.

Tate missed three games this year, you take his average per game and add those 3 games and hes at 1100 yards and 11 or 12 touchdowns and averaged 3 yards more per catch than every bust on your list, as a matter of fact stats wise green is a perfect comp because he missed 4 games his last year and had almost identical stats.

Also you're not doing you're argument any favors by saying hes a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
You're probably the only person on the planet who thinks hes a 2nd or 3rd round talent.
 
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