Well that feels disappointing unless Durde had a commitment with McDonald already or he felt better opportunity elsewhere
 }})
The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall
- Thread starter Canadian Hog
- Start date
While of course not the same as London, I do like the comparison with Boston. Boston has a proven record of success and an uncanny ability to always be open, even when in tight coverage because our chuck the ball, he ends up with it. He doesn't look fast but separates pretty well and locates the seams.
While reminiscing about our misses I have to shout myself out as maybe the world’s biggest Jimmy Clausen fan that year lol. Other than maybe Mel Kiper who said he’d retire if he busted. Whoops. I was about 20 and had no idea what I was watching, I was humbled after that and really reeled in my strong draft takes lol. Though I have to say that the next year I had a buddy I would watch college games with and after watching Cam Newton’s first game at Auburn week 1, I turned to him and said “that’s a future #1 overall pick”, which he thought was ridiculous about a JUCO transfer who had bounced out of being a Florida benchwarmer due to character concerns. He just so clearly had IT.
Over the years I’m a constant reader of this thread but only an infrequent contributor until closer to the draft, and even then I tend to post preferences for our pick by round, rather than rankings—mostly because as a longtime devy/dynasty focused guy most of my time is spent on skill position players and I got a lot of that chatter out of my system in my FF forums and chats over the years. Whereas I felt like a learned a TON about everything else from all you guys over the years. My favorite thread and nothing makes me happier than logging in at night before bed and seeing I have 3-4 pages to catch up on.
For many years I felt very certain that a brain trust of posters from this thread could out-draft our Washington decision-makers, especially if given all of the medical and character stuff the NFL has. I stopped saying that out loud when our new ownership and AP came along, but I’m not sure I’ve actually stopped believing it yet. Time will tell, but this is an informed and intelligent group who challenges and learns from each other constantly. That’s so fucking cool to witness on this dying internet, it’s what the internet was built for, the sharing of knowledge between people thousands of miles apart who never should have been able to exchange ideas.
Over the years I’m a constant reader of this thread but only an infrequent contributor until closer to the draft, and even then I tend to post preferences for our pick by round, rather than rankings—mostly because as a longtime devy/dynasty focused guy most of my time is spent on skill position players and I got a lot of that chatter out of my system in my FF forums and chats over the years. Whereas I felt like a learned a TON about everything else from all you guys over the years. My favorite thread and nothing makes me happier than logging in at night before bed and seeing I have 3-4 pages to catch up on.
For many years I felt very certain that a brain trust of posters from this thread could out-draft our Washington decision-makers, especially if given all of the medical and character stuff the NFL has. I stopped saying that out loud when our new ownership and AP came along, but I’m not sure I’ve actually stopped believing it yet. Time will tell, but this is an informed and intelligent group who challenges and learns from each other constantly. That’s so fucking cool to witness on this dying internet, it’s what the internet was built for, the sharing of knowledge between people thousands of miles apart who never should have been able to exchange ideas.
prodigy
The 1st Round Pick
it's okay. don't beat yourself up too much. I was the biggest Rick Mirer fan and thought he was a can't miss prospect. blame NBC4 for always airing Notre Dame games and Rudy for being the best sports movie of all time. it's not your fault.
I got to watch more Concepcion and as I've mentioned, his hands bother me. Ditto Branch as to watching more -- Branch's average depth per cartch is 3.6 which is wild, so low. He's a screen-hitches and go WR right now clearly with those stats. Both though YAC guys,
I am having a hard time with figuring out Brazzell, I'll watch him more, as I mentioned its commonly known that Tennessee's offense often doesn't translate to the NFL. Though their wide splits and RPO's have some overlap with Kliff's offense. But in college you can go more nuts with it because how lopsided the field-boundary can be. I love his height of course and he makes big plays. Not that physical though at the catch point IMO, not much of a YAC guy. Maybe a faster, less physical Boston?
I've watched more of Sarratt, he's been my third round want for weeks now. I think though I've decided I am in deep like but not love with the prospect. Really solid #2 type. Not great at any one thing but good.
I am having a hard time with figuring out Brazzell, I'll watch him more, as I mentioned its commonly known that Tennessee's offense often doesn't translate to the NFL. Though their wide splits and RPO's have some overlap with Kliff's offense. But in college you can go more nuts with it because how lopsided the field-boundary can be. I love his height of course and he makes big plays. Not that physical though at the catch point IMO, not much of a YAC guy. Maybe a faster, less physical Boston?
I've watched more of Sarratt, he's been my third round want for weeks now. I think though I've decided I am in deep like but not love with the prospect. Really solid #2 type. Not great at any one thing but good.
That's true, and over time I've learned to trust my instincts for better or worse even if the team is hot for the player I dislike or end up taking them. I've talked myself into players AFTER learning the team loves them or took them: Some examples I was down on Ryan Anderson, Gandy-Golden and talked about it on the draft thread before those drafts, then talked myself into them. I had Dotson as a 2nd rounder. Yet, talked myself into the pick and sold it after it happened.
Same with Jamin who I also ranked as a 2nd rounder. lol, speaking of goingcommando, he thought it was oft limits for me to critique that pick in retrospect because I sold the player in advance of that draft. (that's true, he's a miss from me). But I liked him as a 2nd rounder, not in the first. I wanted Darrisaw.
With this regime, I had Sinnott in the third, I liked but didn't love him, thought he struggled to seperate. So far that's been the case. I did a long ranking of Wrs that year and had McCaffrey as a 6th rounder and posted that I don't get it with him, I see the good combine numbers but he still looks stiff to me. I think I've been somewhat wrong on him, IMO he's justified the late third round status.
Thinking back, my best guesses as to a spot has been WR. I used to run track and played soccer. And I am not bad at judging speed pre combine and some of the juking and double moves in football overlap soccer to some extent. I recall debating with someone on ES about Alec Pierce back in that draft, who some want now in FA, that person didn't think Pierce was fast, I debated that he looked plenty fast to me and I liked him much more than they did. That's not to congratulate myself. That same person who debated me, is better by far at noticing other things than I am. But I am good at judging speed and twitch and conversley stiffness. Of course not perfect at, but I think better than average. It's part of the reason why I think WR is easier for me than TE. With TE, most of these guys do have some stiffiness so you have to overlook that mostly. But for WR the stiffness is often a red flag for me.
At WR, the dudes that took longer to succeed, first looked like busts, who I liked were Nico Collins, Alec Pierce, and Wandale Robinson. lol, I kept my mouth shut about my posts about them before the draft after their stumbiling starts.
But yeah If I had to pick one thing I do relatively well is noticing twich-speed, and double move seperation.
Running backs though ironically I am not as obsessed with speed-twitch unless its pass catching types ala Achane who I loved. T. Henderson ditto is of that ilk. So is Jeremiyah Love.
I am more into vision driven backs and ballers who run like madmen and won't be denied -- and especially after last draft when I was high on Skattebo and Monangai. From what I've observed running backs who can see it and love running over guys translate -- and I know there is some crowd who feels the opposite but lol I am sticking with this until I see it backfire.
But that same baller attitude, a motor that never quits I found over the years doesn't per se translate to edge. My favorite example is Keion White, the dude had the size, motor, was a baller, I thought he'd be the dude and boy was I wrong. Charles Harris although more of a speed rusher, also relentless in college with a motor, and another bust. Derek Barnett, he's been ok, but hasn't lived up to his billing. other examples, too from my watchings. I've been misled by that trait so not that confident at edge.
Last edited:
Riggo44
The Team Captain
The difference between Howell and Bain is Howell relies more on speed then Bain does, at least the games I've watched of him. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in that assessment.
I didn't realize there was a question of Howell having short arms. He and Bain both have great get off, motors, moves and hand/arm usage. I don't think Howell is all that much faster than Bain either, like 4.65 vs 4.71?
Always Commander Never Captain
The Free Agent Vet
I don't think Lemon and McConkey play at all similarly. I was a huge McConkey guy in that draft.
Had him going mid-late 1st and WR4 (but in the same tier as Brian Thomas Jr). Instead he went as WR9 in the middle of a group of flawed or over hyped guys who have already busted.
It was so weird, cause I remember a lot of the professional draft analysts saying things about corners like "translate-able skills, played well against future NFL talent...except struggled vs McConkey". Yet for whatever weird reason everyone waved away his ability to separate against Man coverage and thought we can just teach Xavier Leggette and Ja'lynn Polk how to do that!
Always Commander Never Captain
The Free Agent Vet
I'm really excited to see new film (and the Senior Bowl) on these guys. I did not like Bain and loved Reese a month ago...but apparently the film for both took a 180 since then.
Maybe Lemon looks better now (like Bain) and worth the hype.
Maybe Lemon looks better now (like Bain) and worth the hype.
Senior Bowl week should be good. There are a lot of good players that have accepted!
I am especially interested in seeing how the Texas Tech crew and Howell. I think Sarratt will become his QB's good friend
https://www.seniorbowl.com/accepted-invites/
Saturday January 31st
The Chump Bailey
The 1st Round Pick
The TE class, on the surface anyway, does not look particularly deep. There is one however that might be a nice Day 3 gem for us Stanford TE Sam Roush.
- Joined
- Mar 26, 2024
- Messages
- 1,230
- Reaction score
- 1,461
- Points
- 263
- Location
- Ashburn, VA & Myrtle Beach
What is the best- and worst-case scenario for today's game?
If we win, we still draft 7th it appears.
Any chance we move up in the draft with a loss or are we locked in at 7 regardless?
If we win, we still draft 7th it appears.
Any chance we move up in the draft with a loss or are we locked in at 7 regardless?
In a nut shell without SOS included games I think:
Root for the Giants, Jets, Titans, Cards and Browns to win. We will see how the strength of schedule works out if we lose.
If the Browns win and we lose we at least move up one regardless of SOS
if we win we stay
Oh and screw the Giants!!!
Root for the Giants, Jets, Titans, Cards and Browns to win. We will see how the strength of schedule works out if we lose.
If the Browns win and we lose we at least move up one regardless of SOS
if we win we stay
Oh and screw the Giants!!!
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2009
- Messages
- 15,891
- Reaction score
- 9,225
- Points
- 1,093
- Location
- W Palm Beach & Helsinki
NFL draft prospects with a true Round 1 grade: 11 players who are clear first-rounders
We'll see 32 picks in Round 1 on April 23, but which prospects have actually earned a first-round grade? Right now, there are 11 in this 2026 class.
My uneducated mind... These numbers i'm going off of are according to Tankathon who has us picking 7th while NFL.com (see below) has us picking 6th, stating we have the same SOS as Cleveland so who knows what's real?
(2) - New York Giants (3-13) - .529 SOS - vs Dallas - Dallas has nothing to play for other than Jerry Jones not wanting to see his team lose to the lowly Giants on Hard Knocks.... If the Giants beat the Cowboys, their SOS would go down 'double' because they play Dallas twice. Not exactly sure it would drop it enough to 'catch' our SOS, and our SOS would be unchanged because we play both of these teams twice.
(3) - New York Jets (3-13) - .549 SOS - @ Buffalo - Buffalo has locked up a Wild Card, but their seeding could range from 5 to 7 depending on how things shake out. If they beat Buffalo, their SOS would also go down 'double' as they are also a division opponent... less likely it drops them enough to 'catch' us either.
(4) - Tennessee Titans (3-13) - .573 SOS - @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville has locked up a playoff spot, but a win today locks the division. They can get as high as the 1 seed with help, so they have everything to play for.
(5) - Arizona Cardinals (3-13) - .576 SOS - @ LA Rams - Rams have locked up no worse than 6, but could lock up 5 with a win over Arizona.
(6) - Cleveland Browns (4-12) - .489 SOS - @ Cincinnati - Neither team has anything to really play for... and Cleveland is coming off the win against Pittsburgh so who knows what team will show up. Playing away from home against Cincy with Joe Burrow back... but maybe? If they beat Cincy, it also counts as 'double' because it's a division opponent so if Tankathon is right, the only way we get the 6 spot is if we lose AND Cleveland wins, giving us the worse record. IF NFL.com is right, then we're currently ahead of them in the 6 spot, so the only way we lose it to them is if they lose and we win.... since we're both playing division opponents, the outcome will have exact same effect on SOS.
edit: Did the math for us...
our opponents are 138-132-3... according to google, ties count at .5 wins so effectively it's 139.5-132, 139.5 divided by 273 (total games) comes out to .5109, or .511 (which is what Tankathon shows, not what NFL.com shows)
All that being said, i guess the short answer is to root FOR anyone ahead of us, as well as against anyone we've played this year to drive down our SOS, which ultimately comes down to rooting for the Saints and Patriots in terms of teams that are not ahead of us in the draft order.
Seattle beat SF, so that bumped our SOS (maybe that's where the difference is between Tankathon and NFL.com?).
Bears vs Lions - Doesnt matter since we played both, just dont want a Tie
Packers vs Vikings - Same as above
Chiefs vs Raiders - Same as above
Chargers vs Broncos - Same as above
Falcons vs Saints - Go New Orleans!!
Dolphins vs Patriots - Go New England!!
Last edited:
philibusters
The 1st Round Pick
I suspect NFL.com is using strength of schedule through 16 whereas Tankathon is including week 17 opponents even though we haven't played them yet. We play 11-5 Philly and Cleveland plays the 6-10 Bengals.
Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 8, Members: 0, Guests: 8)
You haven't joined any rooms.