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Next Day Thread: What Was That? (Dallas Edition)
- Thread starter KDawg
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Bulldog
The Legend
You develop a winning culture by winning.
And you start winning by beating those teams you can be competitive with.
I don’t expect this team to beat the Eagles twice or the Lions, etc.
I was expecting a larger loss to Baltimore.
But teams like Dallas and Tennesse are either rebuilding or suffering through lost seasons where major expectations were dashed due to critical injuries.
IMO we have what it takes to stay with and beat these teams IF we don’t come out unfocused and making a lot of unforced errors.
That’s what we did Sunday.
It’s not enough to look at 7 wins and brush off the stretch run here and dream about 2025 or 2026.
We need to stem the tide and send Will Levis and Co. packing.
And you start winning by beating those teams you can be competitive with.
I don’t expect this team to beat the Eagles twice or the Lions, etc.
I was expecting a larger loss to Baltimore.
But teams like Dallas and Tennesse are either rebuilding or suffering through lost seasons where major expectations were dashed due to critical injuries.
IMO we have what it takes to stay with and beat these teams IF we don’t come out unfocused and making a lot of unforced errors.
That’s what we did Sunday.
It’s not enough to look at 7 wins and brush off the stretch run here and dream about 2025 or 2026.
We need to stem the tide and send Will Levis and Co. packing.
Riggo Reincarnated
The UDFA
The way to do that is by coaching up Kliff Kingsbury. Hire a consultant to assist - since Quinn is defensively minded. Maybe he is incapable of coaching at a higher level than he has shown in the 2nd half of seasons. Joe Gibbs was the Master of Halftime Adjustments and almost always finished the year strong.
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I keep seeing Kingsbury struggles in the second half of seasons... but data doesn't support that.
2019:
2020:
2021:
2022:
My observations on Kingsbury are very different than most people's. I see a guy who gets the most out of lesser talented offensive personnel up until teams figure out his strategy. Even then, he does fairly well. Except against high end defenses. Once his overall plan is figured out for getting the best out of guys, he struggles against very good defenses. So... just like pretty much any other NFL coach who is playing with a roster with some holes in it.
Let's not attack our coaching staff. I think that's the wrong approach here.
Coming into the season we knew that we were undertalented. And then the offense was historically good and we thought the world was our oyster. The truth is that Kingsbury deserves a metric ton of credit for that performance. Now our performance has regressed to the mean and the sum of our parts.
Is Kingsbury perfect? No. No one is.
But let's not act like he doesn't deserve a lion's share of the credit for where this offense was and how this team has performed in the early weeks while our defense was abysmal.
Whitt has made some great changes defensively, and he deserves a ton of credit, too.
I think our coaching has been pretty solid, all things considered.
2019:
2020:
2021:
2022:
My observations on Kingsbury are very different than most people's. I see a guy who gets the most out of lesser talented offensive personnel up until teams figure out his strategy. Even then, he does fairly well. Except against high end defenses. Once his overall plan is figured out for getting the best out of guys, he struggles against very good defenses. So... just like pretty much any other NFL coach who is playing with a roster with some holes in it.
Let's not attack our coaching staff. I think that's the wrong approach here.
Coming into the season we knew that we were undertalented. And then the offense was historically good and we thought the world was our oyster. The truth is that Kingsbury deserves a metric ton of credit for that performance. Now our performance has regressed to the mean and the sum of our parts.
Is Kingsbury perfect? No. No one is.
But let's not act like he doesn't deserve a lion's share of the credit for where this offense was and how this team has performed in the early weeks while our defense was abysmal.
Whitt has made some great changes defensively, and he deserves a ton of credit, too.
I think our coaching has been pretty solid, all things considered.
Blaze Thunderball
The Rookie
Interesting perspective, definite difference from the common narrative. So how, in your opinion, can Kliff adapt the scheme within the limitations of the personnel to get the offense in gear again? Or is this it - the scheme is what it is, it makes the most of the limitations and success will depend on execution, both by the offense and opposing defense?
Warhead36
Camp Fodder
The only thing we really can do is unleash more JD running. Read option etc. Our one TD drive before we fell behind 2 scores featured a few JD runs. That and we need to scheme more downfield passing on early downs. We didn't have a single pass play of more than 15 yards until we were down 20-9. We didn't have a single play period of more than 10 yards on 1st down.
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With the injuries to Daniels (he's good now), Ekeler, Robinson and both tackles? Not a whole lot if we don't want to call designed reads for Daniels to keep the ball.
I think I'd run a very similar offense. I'd use more motions and shifts to try to keep the defense on their toes... sometimes multiple shifts per play. I'd move McLaurin around (slot, other side of the field, motions, etc). I'd use Sinnott and Ertz more and incorporate more delayed routes... but most importantly I'd dial up a lot more shots downfield and just tell Jayden, "You have two reads. If neither is open either take off or let it rip down the field towards a receiver into the bleachers."
The key is to keep them stretched horizontally and vertically and stress their short zone/man press defenders. If we can do that, I think we can move the ball.
But... in the NFL everyone is good and everyone can scheme. So while coaching 100% matters, it's impact is far less than the impact of your players.
We need better players.
If we improve our personnel (again, we improved our personnel this year tenfold) in key spots and we find players who have the best ability (availability) moving forward and Kingsbury doesn't find results? That's on him.
Riggo Reincarnated
The UDFA
Where are the play action calls, flea-flickers, motion of receivers before the play call etc
ExoDus84
The Rookie
We desperately need more play call variation, but the line was been suspect as hell for the past 3 weeks. Not sure I trust them to hold up on longer developing plays like the flea.
Warhead36
Camp Fodder
We need to run crossers and slants to beat man coverage. I don't think we've even tried a deep post all year. We need to attack the 12-20 yard range more. The passing game can't just be 5 yard dinkers all game with a couple low percentage bombs. The only receiver we should be throwing to bombs to are McLaurin(and maybe Dyami Brown to be fair he does run the go route well).
TD_WashingtonRedskins
The Rookie
Interesting. I look at the numbers you posted and see something different.
I'd say that the data supports a significant offensive regression in every season other than 2019. When you split his seasons into halves, the first halves outperform the second halves by a large margin points scored/points per game.
In 2019, the one exception, his second half was about 2.5 points per game better than his first half. But, after that, it was ugly. In 2020, he dropped off from over 29 PPG to only 22 in the second half of the season. In 2021, he regressed from nearly 31 PPG to barely over 20 PPG in the second half of the season. In 2022, he fell off from 22.5 PPG to just over 17 PPG in the second half of the season.
So, over his final three years in the league, it developed as a pretty consistent pattern for him. His team would score roughly a TD less per game in the second half of the season than in the first half of the season. On a macro level too, his overall points per game were regressing over those three seasons as well. Admittedly, just slightly from 2020 to 2021, but then significantly from 2021 to 2022.
So there was an in-season downward trend and an overall downward trend in scoring over his final three years.
burgold
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One of Quinn's stated goals is for the team of today to be good enough to beat the team of three weeks ago. I think that's a good standard. The team needs to work to meet that challenge. It might not be possible because of injuries, but then again, the talent of the team is pretty similar now vs. the team that played the Bears or the Steelers.
Warhead36
Camp Fodder
Didn't Murray get hurt late in 2022 at around the time their offense dropped off significantly?
Also, I'd kinda assume most offenses drop off in the second half of seasons. Defenses adjust. Weather gets colder. Injuries. And so on. Look at the Mike McDaniel Dolphins(although this year it looks like the opposite effect). I think a fairer point is compare his regression to other teams to see if its more, less, roughly equivalent, etc.
Also, I'd kinda assume most offenses drop off in the second half of seasons. Defenses adjust. Weather gets colder. Injuries. And so on. Look at the Mike McDaniel Dolphins(although this year it looks like the opposite effect). I think a fairer point is compare his regression to other teams to see if its more, less, roughly equivalent, etc.
TD_WashingtonRedskins
The Rookie
That's an interesting way to view things. I like it.
Kyler got hurt one of those years for sure and must have contributed. I assumed it was the season with the 7+ point drop off, but I don't recall. As for all offenses regressing as the season wears on...it's logical, but I'm not sure. I just wanted to show that there are concrete numbers to back up the perception about Kliff's offenses.
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Sure. I don't deny that completely. However, there is a lot of context here.
2022:
Skill guys: zero 1000 yard receivers, zero 1000 yard rushers:
DeAndre Hopkins only played in 9 games, Marquis Brown only played in 12 games, Greg Dortch top receivers
RB James Conner
2021: Zero 1,000 yard receivers, zero 1000 yard rushers:
Christian Kirk, AJ Green, Zach Ertz top receivers
RB James Conner
2020: One 1,000 yard receiver, zero 1000 yard rushers:
DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Dan Arnold top receivers
RB: Kenyan Drake
2019: Zero 1000 yard receivers, zero 1000 yard rushers
Larry Fitz, Christian Kirk, DAVID JOHNSON top receivers
RB: Kenyan Drake
He hasn't exactly been dealt a hotbed of offensive talent. And his lines haven't been great, either.
For fun, current 2024:
Top receivers: McLaurin, Ertz, Noah Brown
Top Rusher: Jayden Daniels...
If he is responsible for not having great talent, somehow, then he is screwing up. But he has maximized the talent that he had in all seasons as a coordinator. 2019 was an aging Larry Fitz. DeAndre Hopkins seemed to be hurt every week in his Cardinal tenure.
He's not a world beating OC, but he's not a bad one.
great post
HailYeah
The Rookie
Our offense wasn’t staying on the field long enough (my opinion) so the defense was easily gassed and taken advantage of. Our defense is kind of soft. Our run D has been a big weakness and our pass D isn’t far behind. The addition of Lattimore should help, but we’ve been without. If our offense isn’t having long sustainable drives then our defense gets picked apart. Same song all season long.
RandyHolt
The UDFA
So Seibert is on IR. It sure sounds like Quinn was playing with an injured kicker unless he got injured on his last kick. As if dressing Gonzales wasnt proof enough that Quinn started a wonky injured kicker. I pin that last miss on Quinn as much as Siebert.
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Remember how we all made fun of the Giants the first time we played them? 😑
TD_WashingtonRedskins
The Rookie
That is very good context. I suppose my only point is that no matter who your players are, when you drop off by a TD it still shows regression of the effectiveness of your scheme (assuming you're working with mostly the same players).
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