BGO Blind Pig: The QB Decision

Having put it off as long as possible, the guys finally go on record with the prospect we each feel should be the guy on April 25th. In the name of all that is Holy, may Adam Peters and Company get this one right.

I'll be very interested in your all's feedback on this one. I completely flipped after spending an entire day watching video clips of all 3 guys. I can only imagine the debates going on in Ashburn because there are strong cases to be made for each of the top QBs in this class.

Excellent discussion guys. Kudos!

My addendum on the subject-

I have tried my best to be agnostic to this point on the prospects because I wanted to take the time to absorb and digest every shred of information that I could find and I didn’t want to shoot my shot prematurely. I have been afraid to make any broad declarations that I didn’t believe I could stand behind and comfortably live with fin the years to come. But, I’m ready to now.

Along the way, over the past couple of months I have watched 3-4 full games of each JD, DM, and JM (alphabetical order). Here is where I have landed:

Jayden Daniels- everything I would like in a QB prospect minus the body type. And that is not a small concern, I honestly fear for his life at the next level. The simple fact that despite his devil may care attitude, he did successfully navigate a very physically demanding level of college competition. Competition that week in and week out most closely mirrors that of the NFL even though, of course, not that of the NFL. To anyone that wants to label him a one-year wonder, I simply offer you Joe Burrows.

Drake Maye- Prototypical size, bionic arm, all-around solid citizen. Sounds good, right? I love all those things but I greatly prefer that they come along with a proven ability to, you know, having better than average throwing ability. When needing a sniper I would rather have one that more than regularly can hit the target rather than the one with the most powerful rifle. Maye has not been impressive playing the position against a considerably lower caliber of opposing talent. He played ACC football not ACC basketball. I look at his teams success during the meat of the college season (the back 1/3) and am not even close to impressed. In ‘22, when he had a better level of surrounding talent and was being touted as a consensus top 2 QB, NC finished that season 0-4. In ‘23, it was 1-3 with the 1 win coming against powerhouse Duke by 2 pts in double OT. We is widely considered to have considerable issues with his throwing stroke, footwork, and short-area accuracy. I also see a higher level of panic in his play under pressure and an innate tendency to move his way toward pressure rather away from it. Bottom line for me is that he could become very good if a team is patient with his development and can coach those things up. But, to me, that is far too big of an if. He does look good in a uniform though.

JJ McCarthy- ok, here is where I will lose the majority of you. He has all of the desirable physical attributes; he is tall, athletic, and has a strong arm. To me he is also the cream of the crop from the neck up of all of the top QB prospects including Caleb Williams. He admittedly was not asked to put Michigan on his shoulders and carry them to victory. He also doesn’t have the volume of throws that the others do, (he clearly needs to become a better play caller). But when faced with an important 3rd and long he produced. He is an alpha-level leader, he is an alpha- level competitor, and he is a winner. He flourished under NFL level coaching in an NFL scheme. Though it would be sacrilegious to tag him with a Brady comparison, compare their mental makeup, their physical attributes, and their on-field statistics while in college and tell me I’m crazy. I dare you. 😉

All that said, my final rankings are:

1. JJ McCarthy
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Drake Maye

Boone said:

I'll be very interested in your all's feedback on this one. I completely flipped after spending an entire day watching video clips of all 3 guys. I can only imagine the debates going on in Ashburn because there are strong cases to be made for each of the top QBs in this class.

Click to expand...

Ask and you shall receive. 🤣

I love that you have the contrarian take. On Maye, we didn't put it this way in the pod, but I think a number of us say he is the player (setting aside Caleb Williams who is irrelevant in terms of the Commanders) with the highest bust potential. I am always wary of big strong QBs who are at the top of draft classes but who have some obvious concerns. Maye has a hell of an arm - if all you are looking at is velocity. He has an absolute cannon of an arm. What I don't see is the touch, the pinpoint accuracy, the ball placement that I see Daniels able to apply. He does throw a very accurate and well-placed deep ball, but on a lot of other pass types, it's just not there. And that may be a big deal down the road. We've seen a lot of guys who can't break out of that Mitch Trubisky level of play because they simply aren't accurate or nuanced enough passers.

People talk about Daniels not having Maye's arm - and I get what they mean. He doesn't throw with the pure velocity that Maye does, but when he goes downfield, the ball just comes off his throwing hand effortlessly. He is a very talented passer - and that to me, coupled with his ability to use his feet, makes Daniels easily the best QB at his current stage of development.

McCarthy seems to be the uber-Alpha in this group, hard to argue. I just don't know what we would be getting though in terms of all of those other QB skills. It didn't seem like Michigan ever actually required him to read a defense. The vast majority of throws I saw him make seemed to have a predetermined target. Of course, that was also true for the other QBs - at times. But he wasn't asked to do a lot of exotic things at QB in Michigan. Not his fault, and that doesn't mean he can't do them. We just don't have a giant reel of highlight film demonstrating him doing them.

Since I spent a lot of yesterday touting the importance of 'intangibles', I'm not going to diminish the importance of them a day later. I think the question is - does he truly have all of the requisite QB skills minimally required on top of those intangibles. I'm not as confident he does. To me, he looks like an average athlete vs. the other guys, at times.

I am 100% prepared to be humiliatingly wrong related to every stated opinion I've made on these guys. It's going to be a very tough call. I hope for Peters and Company, it's not such a tough call and that when the dust settles they feel there is a clear and obvious choice.

Brother Chris,

You're crazy.

Don't you read the internet? From J.J.'s NFL.com draft profile itself:

I wouldn’t call throwing the ball 61 mph at the combine (only a modicum behind Joe Milton) modest arm strength (though I did fail to time his wind-up).

But, hey, that’s just me. 😉

And for the record, I'm not saying you're wrong or that your ranking isn't perhaps the same one they have in Ashburn. More commenting on how the multitude of analyses and opinions can sway one on a daily basis. I've been asked multiple times by people (who for some reason are interested in my take) who we should take, and I've taken to pausing and replying, "Not sure--what time is it?"

I love this discussion and I appreciate that you all took a very balanced and nuanced approach. To be completely honest it wasn’t what I was expecting. So, again, kudos.

That was as good of a debate as I have seen anywhere to date.

Om said:

And for the record, I'm not saying you're wrong or that your ranking isn't perhaps the same one they have in Ashburn. More commenting on how the multitude of analyses and opinions can sway one on a daily basis. I've been asked multiple times by people (who for some reason are interested in my take) who we should take, and I've taken to pausing and replying, "Not sure--what time is it?"

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Yes, yes, and, uh, yes.

I just felt it was time to plant my flag and take the next 2 weeks off. 🤣

Is that Michigan’s marching band on OSU’s field? 😎

No legitimate, successful, franchise QB has ever been over-drafted in the history of the league.

Great podcast guys! Fantastic debate, though honestly it’s just muddied the waters even more for me 😂
I was vacillating before between Maye and Daniels, and now I’m just as indecisive.
I think I’m leaning toward Maye. The fact that common consensus is that he has a higher ceiling meshes with my thoughts that (as you guys said) his performance in 2024 isn’t as important as it is for 2025/6 and beyond. This isn’t a roster where we just need to plug in a QB and we’re play off ready. This is a roster that needs time to cook. If it were the former then Daniels could be the undisputed pick.

I mentioned in another thread that I hadn’t expected Peters to go on a shopping spree with the cap space and, while we were super busy, he didn’t. We still project to have a huge amount of cash available next year, plus many of the FAs we did sign are on short deals. This shows he’s looking at ‘24 as a transitional year and his true gaze is further down the road.

Under Dan I would have guaranteed we’d have burnt all that cap space and we’d draft Daniels simply as a way to put arses in seats and sell a bunch of merch off the back of the flashiest player. But Dan’s not in charge anymore and this ownership group seems more interested in long term success than a quick buck.

Which means I’m slightly leaning toward a Maye pick.

I think they’ll see what he has through camp, but won’t be in a rush to start him. I suspect we see Mariota for at least a bunch of games till they think Maye is ready. The majority of the fanbase is smart and just wants success here again, and I think most of us are optimistic that this is being done the right way and are mentally prepared for a transitional year.

That said…

Gosh, Daniels looks good. I wouldn’t be disappointed if he’s the pick. I just can’t shake the ghost of RGIII. I know he might be so elusive he only takes one big hit all year. But it only takes one.

The difference between Daniels and RGIII, to me at least, is that Griffin seemed like a track star turned QB. Daniel’s seems more like a QB with speed.

So, though I have a slight lean toward Maye (and it is the slightest of slights) I’d be happy with either.

I don't get the RG3 comparisons (I've seen that comp a lot). Other than the speed and legs, there is no comparing the two. Daniels is a pure, accurate passer, something Griffin never was. He can read a defense, something Griffin could never do. And I don't get the sense he's the utter diva Griffin was - he seems very well-liked and respected by his teammates.

A better comp I think is Jalen Hurts. I've also heard Lamar Jackson, although a) Daniels will have to keep his weight up to his current 210+ to keep that comp from being laughable, and Daniels is already a better passer than Jackson will ever be imho.

And Daniels wouldn't be a Snyder move - trading the farm to go up and get Caleb Williams would be.

The RG3 comp for me is the running style, not the passer part. RG3 was an awkward hit taker. He was a world class sprinter with elite speed, but struggled mightily with the 'protecting yourself' aspect of that part of the game.

I'm glad it was brought up at the end, "scheme" is going to determine a lot about who we draft as I believe Quinn gets all the years of his contract in this rebuild (not a transition to me). I really didn't do much if any review of potential picks for this draft except a little bit at QB (works been a clusterf in the financial field lately). Daniels gives me fears of what we witnessed in 2012 and what the Eagles witnessed with Cunningham (who did find his way into being a pocket passer albeit much later on). If we select him, I won't complain but doesn't mean I won't take out an insurance policy on him if he'll sign it, he's got the rest of what you want but I just can't stop seeing a train wreck waiting to happen. Maye, needs work, a good bit of work, his footwork isn't McNabb level (heel clicking Wizard of Oz) bad but it's not nearly going to cut it in the NFL. If we pick him, I won't complain either unless he starts before week 13 because he needs a lot of growth in other areas as well. In fact I'd prefer if we go that route he gets a few late season snaps and watches all season in which I'm A-OK because like Neo I'm looking at 2026 before this is really a competitive team. McCarthy (aside from he's a wolverine bleh) the sample size is small as far as throws, however as much as I dislike and disdain Harbaugh, he see's things in QB's others don't and gives the kid high praise and considering he's an NFL coach, former successful NFL coach along with successful NCAA coach I'm not sure I can discount that at all. So if we picked him, I won't complain but like Maye I'd want him to sit a year. Daniels is the only one I'd be comfortable with coming in around week 5 or 6, I don't think this team is as nearly as capable as others believe and would rather Mariota take some of the initial licks until the team starts to find it's identity this season.

Really good discussion. I know that Peters, Quinn, Kingsbury, and the rest of the staff are having these same discussions. Including the discussions about trades and what value it would take to move off of 2. I’m excited to see who they deem as the guy to lead this team moving forward. I’m going in with an open mind and giving this group as much latitude as possible.

Boone said:

I love that you have the contrarian take. On Maye, we didn't put it this way in the pod, but I think a number of us say he is the player (setting aside Caleb Williams who is irrelevant in terms of the Commanders) with the highest bust potential.

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My bust potential rankings - biggest potential down:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. Drake Maye
3. JJ McCarthy

Highest Ceiling:

1. Drake Maye
2. JJ McCarthy
3. Jayden Daniels

Highest Floor:

1. Jayden Daniels
2. JJ McCarthy
3. Drake Maye

Only quibble? In terms of bust potential - I think it’s hard to argue that Daniels has the highest current basement but has a bigger bust potential than Maye - who has a lot to prove.