Random Commanders Thoughts

That's what I think, too. He should be looking for a big payday since the NFL players window for making money is very short, but I wish we would have been smart enough to make a deal with him.

Now, with the sale and Rivera on the extremely hot seat, I doubt we even get an offer to him worth him looking at.
 
For whatever reason, I feel like Payne’s effectiveness will regress next year. I think we saw contract-effort Payne and that came with 20% more drive. Post contract, I think we’ll see pretty good Payne.

I’d still love to keep him and don’t think he’ll do a Haynesworth, but I also don’t think the light went off and he’ll be as dialed in.
 
This team did pay Allen and McLaurin.

Part of the problem with Payne is a similar one we see around the league - a guy that has an OK third season but then balls out in Year 4 and comes on like he is going to be a perennial pro bowler going forward.

That puts all the pressure on the team and forces a max deal in anticipation of some crazy contract Mark Davis or the Broncos owners seem willing to hand out with little thought about future competitiveness.

I like Payne. The problem under the cap is you have to spread the wealth across the roster to be successful.

You can't concentrate all of your financial resources in two or three positions and then go cheap across the balance of the roster or else you will be in that 7-9 to 9-7 range year after year without any big leap forward.

One thing teams like Kansas City and San Francisco have done is let some guys go to keep a handle on the cap even though those players were very productive.

San Francisco decided to move on from Brentson Buckner at DT despite his being a top 25 DL in the NFL. But the commitments elsewhere on defense necessitated the move.

Similarly, the Chiefs parted ways with Tyreek Hill despite his past value and performance in the postseason as he approached 30. The Chiefs also made a hard decision to let Tyran Matthieu go in free agency, despite the fact he was their defensive captain.

The bottom line is you can't keep everyone.

That's why free agent moves for big dollars are always scrutinized because those moves almost always necessitate a release or trade down the road of a player at another position under the auspices of the cap.
 
It’s great to have a ‘best in NFL’ unit for a couple seasons, but this is why you don’t use multiple first round picks on the same unit. It’s ultimately not possible or wise to keep them all so unless you are in ‘win now’ mode, or are truly committed to paying whatever it takes to keep the unit together,why do it? Seems like a lack of foresight to me - and it’s why I don’t think it’s wise to have a pure BPA approach in the draft.
 
I suspect D. Payne will get a huge FA offer and be gone ... but if I'm being honest (which I try to do at least once a year) I've thought he was gone since he punched Jonathan Allen on the sideline last year.

Too many big names/contracts on the DL with Sweat, Allen and maybe Young. In a perfect world you keep every good player and damn the cost, but this world is not such. Have to allocate funds/assets rationally.

As of today, I'm thinking that with Allen, a returning and hopefully healed Mathis, and some combo of Bada, Ridgeway (who I think has potential if he can learn not lose it between the ears) and player to be named, we have a pretty solid interior.
 
Agree. To me it's a combination of best player available AND most obvious needs of the team.

When you are picking in the top 5 or 6 picks, there are often a NUMBER of players that grade out at a level equating to 'future starter and pro bowler'.

In the case of 2007, Washington took Laron Landry at safety at #6 despite the fact we had Sean Taylor and so many holes elsewhere on the roster where a blue chipper could have helped the franchise.

In the end Landry fizzled and turned out to be less than what the team hoped after Sean passed and Landry failed to step up.

But the idea of taking safeties #4 and #6 overall in 2004 and then again in 2007 raised eyebrows all over the league and with good reason.
 
I don't think this team can survive / build enough paying Payne. I'd love to keep him, but he is not going to take a discount. I would bet that his agent looks at Allen's contract and says "that's the floor"

To commit $30+ mil per year to interior defensive line is too much when we're going into an offseason where so many quesitonmarks are going to be in play. We do not have a QB on the roster that has any reason to lead us to believe we can be a contender . Howell 'could' but I would hope that nobody looks at him with that opinion yet, we just dont know. We don't have either of our starting DEs signed beyond their rookie deal. We dont have either starting safety signed beyond their rookie deal. We don't have a starting LB signed beyond their rookie deal. We don't have a starting RB signed beyond their rookie deal.

ALL of those positions are going to get expensive soon. Drafting Mathis may have been the smartest thing this front office has done all along, knowing Payne was going to warrant top 10 DT money this offseason... I love Payne, but he had the best year of his career and we had the same results as the prior two seasons. That's not to say he's not important, but at some point where do you focus that cap hit and prioritize it knowing you've got Allen / Mathis / Smith-Williams / Wise / Bada as options going forward. Yes, Payne is likely either 1 or 2 on that list, but there are viable options that can allow you to spend elsewhere.

How much better would we be if we spent that money on LT or LB?
 
No, the team has to look to DE and figure out the Montez Sweat and Chase Young situations contract wise in 2023.

The ship unfortunately has sailed IMO on Payne.

What I would be concerned about with Payne is he had a so-so season in 2021 and is playing next to a consensus pro bowl pick in Jonathan Allen.

What is he going to do if HE is the man on a new defense and HE gets the double teams and attention of the offensive game plan.
 
I also don’t think Payne has 1/10th the maturity and leadership ability of a guy like Jon Allen. He is a physical beast but if we can’t keep everybody we will be fine without him.
 
For anyone wanting to break the bank for Mr. Payne, here are his career numbers by year.

Payne.PNG


I'm sure the team has the numbers I really want and that is his stats when Allen is present and when Allen is absent. My gut tells me Allen is making Payne a better player, not the other way around.

My gut is also screaming that his only great year has been his contract year while playing angry over the team not offering him big money like they did Allen.

I've seen this movie before. Let him move on to another team he has to be The Man, without Jon Allen, and see if he can actually do it. I know which why I would bet.
 
Neophyte said:
For anyone wanting to break the bank for Mr. Payne, here are his career numbers by year.

View attachment 6522

I'm sure the team has the numbers I really want and that is his stats when Allen is present and when Allen is absent. My gut tells me Allen is making Payne a better player, not the other way around.

My gut is also screaming that his only great year has been his contract year while playing angry over the team not offering him big money like they did Allen.

I've seen this movie before. Let him move on to another team he has to be The Man, without Jon Allen, and see if he can actually do it. I know which why I would bet.
Click to expand...

Looks like his pass rushing and tackles for loss got better and everything else is about the same.
 
We don't have the same QB contract most of these other teams do. We have 2 big contracts out (excluding Wentz) that we have to account for.

IMO we can sign sweat and Payne both to contract like Allen's and set the money right to not go in to Cap hell.
 
MikefromOH said:
We don't have the same QB contract most of these other teams do. We have 2 big contracts out (excluding Wentz) that we have to account for.

IMO we can sign sweat and Payne both to contract like Allen's and set the money right to not go in to Cap hell.
Click to expand...
We have to rebuild the OL and while a guy or two can come from the draft, there are likely to be some FA additions there too. OTs aren't cheap and ours are getting long in the tooth.

Cole Holcomb is a Free Agent on March 15 which means that as of right now we have exactly one starting caliber LB on this roster.

Kam Curl is a FA after 2024 and graded out as one of the top 3 Safeties in the league this year. We also all saw what this team looks like when he isn't on the field.

Gibson is out of contract after 2024.

TE is as close to a black hole as I think I've ever seen in Washington.

Then consider that most of us believe that Payne just played the only season he will ever be worth Jon Allen money.
 
Payne is going for highest $$ possible - he’s all but said that. We won’t be that team, I am 99% sure.
 
Neophyte said:
We have to rebuild the OL and while a guy or two can come from the draft, there are likely to be some FA additions there too.

Cole Holcomb is out of contract.

Kam Curl is a FA after 2024 and graded out as one of the top 3 Safeties in the league this year. We also all saw what this team looks like when he isn't on the field.

Gibson is out of contract after 2024.

TE is as close to a black hole as I think I've ever seen in Washington.

Then consider that most of us believe that Payne just played the only season he will ever worth Jon Allen money.
Click to expand...
Holcomb will not be a big contract
I'm not sure Gibson even comes back.
Tight ends can be built via draft.
OL also can be built via draft

We can sign the DL and keep them together. We've seen contracts manipulated so the "guaranteed money" is a signing bonus, or whatever other ways they've done it. People like Mahomes are getting $50mil per year. It's very possible to keep them all together if we had anyone in the FO who could work numbers like Scot used to.
 
Mayhew and Rivera press conference today at 11am 😳
 
What's the scoop on Twitter?!!!

Come on, tweeters!! Give me something!
 
One more factor and it's huge...

New ownership will likely not be in place until the league meetings at the end of March. That is 2 weeks after the start of FA.

Snyder isn't going to write the required check to front Payne staying here and 31 other teams know it. Drop a big enough contract in front of Payne on March 15 and he is having an introduction presser somewhere else on March 16.
 
Maybe the young TEs will be better once they, you know, stay healthy enough to practice and play.
 
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