The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[DogofWar1]

Okay. Arm length and sacks.

I have gone through the last 11 seasons (2015 thru 2025) and looked at every 10+ sack performance from a player (I do want to look at careee sack totals but that's for another day).

There are 194 10+ sack performances from 95 unique players.

35"+: 29 ten+ sack seasons from 8 unique players

34"-34 7/8": 44 ten+ sack seasons from 25 unique players

33"-33 7/8": 58 ten+ sack seasons from 31 unique players

32"-32 7/8": 50 ten+ sack seasons from 25 unique players

31"-31 7/8": 13 ten+ sack seasons from 6 unique players

ZERO sub-31" arm 10+ sack seasons.

Within the sub 32" club you have
Micah Parsons - 31 1/2" arms, 5 seasons
Kyle Van Noy - 31 5/8" arms, 1 season
Bryce Huff - 31 3/4" arms, 1 season
Markus Golden - 31 1/8", 3 seasons
Melvin Ingram - 31 1/2", 2 seasons

And last but certainly not least, our good friend Lorenzo Alexander, with one 10+ sack season at 31 1/4"

So, regarding Mr. Bain.

There is no recent historical precedent for a player with sub-31" arms managing to get 10+ sacks.

It is very rare for players with sub-32" arms to achieve 10+ sacks, but not unheard of. You get about 1 per year, tho Micah is 5/13 of those.

The data is almost a perfect bell curve too, going 0-13-50-58-44-29-0 from sub-31 to 36+.

At the end of the day it is very concerning that NO ONE has managed to hit 10+ sacks with sub-31" arms. If there wasn't some big causal link, you'd expect someone to have managed it, but across all 95 players who have managed 194 total 10+ sack seasons, none had sub-31" arms. That's a lot of data points to come back with a 0 in Bain's size column.

It ultimately is a major reason I'd pass on him at 7. I'd be a lot more comfortable in the teens and definitely by the 20's.

 

[Canuck]

Clean and jerk or the snatch are much better bench marks.

Theres always guys at the gym putting up 300+ with legs no bigger than my forearm.

What I mean is most atheletes if they never see a weight room will have a strong lower half.

Bench is more a result of being consistent, shows you can put in the work.

Clean. jerk etc., are both very relevant, but are also much more techical

Either way, looks like next to no one benched at the combine, so is kinda moot

 

[Riggo44]

What I mean is most atheletes if they never see a weight room will have a strong lower half.

Bench is more a result of being consistent, shows you can put in the work.

Clean. jerk etc., are both very relevant, but are also much more techical

Either way, looks like next to no one benched at the combine, so is kinda moot

Because they're so technical I think it shows more dedication. I also love the feeling of a well executed clean, so I'm partial.

I didn't even realize no one benched--good. Hopefully it's becoming irrelevant.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Just had a clinic with Sonny Styles & Emmanuel McNeil Warren’s safety coach - no wonder why those guys are studs. He gave them both a lot of kudos. Something to keep in mind.

I haven't watched Emmanuel McNeil Warren, but from what I've heard he's the one safety of the 1st round trio (Downs, Thienaman) that makes the most big plays.

 

[RWJ]

I haven't watched Emmanuel McNeil Warren, but from what I've heard he's the one safety of the 1st round trio (Downs, Thienaman) that makes the most big plays.

I think Warren is a freak! I think he goes early to mid 2nd. Love to have him in Washington but we don't have a 2nd round pick. Hoping for Downs at #7.

 

[SkinDeep]

My personal completely amateur take on Bain and the short arms is this...for an edge the key is not letting the tackle square up on you and control you by getting his hands in on your chest. That's what all the other traits are about.... quick first step, bend, twist, moves, hand usage etc. All are just to keep the tackle's hands from getting to your chest. Arm length also helps in that process. So you would think if a guy has short arms, well he can make up for it with great moves, bend, great first step, etc.

But also, unlike all the other traits listed above, arm length makes you better able to disrupt the QB's throwing motion from a slightly farther distance away from him. Analogous to a WRs "catch radius,' let's call it a "grasp radius." And if you have the hand strength at the end of this long arms, even better to grasp the QB. If the edge gets a grasp on the QB, almost always the play as planned is over, dead and killed.

So if a guy like Bain has very short arms, it's like having 2 deficient traits in one. Can it be overcome? Yes but he better be HOF-level in the other traits.

 

[KDawg]

I asked a bunch of people at the clinic this weekend about short arms. Mind you, these are high school, college and pro coaches. Not all DL guys, some OL, some safety, some LB, some HCs…

I was asking more so for my purposes as a coach, but I brought up Bain.

One guy, at a D1 school said, “man, that short arm shit is so stupid. If a dude can ball they can ball. A lot of times it happens that the longer their arms the easier it is, but that shit shows on tape. People are dogging Campbell for his Super Bowl performance and making dumb ass short arm comments, but he was setting to protect based on what his coaches taught him.”

And no longer than a few hours later a Patriots coach told a room of coaches that exact same thing and they were going to correct Campbell’s launch point.

 

[bird_1972]

Given how amazing his tape looks (and against good competition at the collegiate level), I wonder if there is a creative way to leverage his skills while mitigating the arm length issue? In other words, is there another way he can be utilized to take advantage of how elite he clearly is even if his arm length make traditional NFL edge a tougher fit for him?

 

[KDawg]

Given how amazing his tape looks (and against good competition at the collegiate level), I wonder if there is a creative way to leverage his skills while mitigating the arm length issue? In other words, is there another way he can be utilized to take advantage of how elite he clearly is even if his arm length make traditional NFL edge a tougher fit for him?

Yes. Exactly how he has been utilized in college.

 

[bird_1972]

Yes. Exactly how he has been utilized in college.

I'm not as well versed as you and others are but based on what I saw in his highlight reel, he looks to be lined up as a traditional Edge. Am I missing something?

 

[KDawg]

I'm not as well versed as you and others are but based on what I saw in his highlight reel, he looks to be lined up as a traditional Edge. Am I missing something?

You are not. He also aligns as a 3-tech.

Point is… he played traditional edge very well. They moved his techniques to a tight shade, to a wide shade, to a 3, etc. he changes his pass rush move on the regular to keep OL guessing.

My point is… don’t change a thing. Whoever gets him needs to use him similarly to how he was used at Miami.

 

[SkinsFTW]

I saw the post up above that said that Micah Parsons arms are about .75 of an inch longer than Bain.

I doubt that 3/4 of a inch arm length is the difference between 5 sacks and 14.

 

[philibusters]

I saw the post up above that said that Micah Parsons arms are about .75 of an inch longer than Bain.

I doubt that 3/4 of a inch arm length is the difference between 5 sacks and 14.

It isn't but Parsons is a pure speed rusher who will turning the corner rather than a speed to power guy and for pass rushers the pure speed guys are the ones least affected by arm length

 

[KDawg]

It isn't but Parsons is a pure speed rusher who will turning the corner rather than a speed to power guy and for pass rushers the pure speed guys are the ones least affected by arm length

But… Bain wins with burst and speed. He gains leverage and then makes plays with bend.

 

[HTTR]

With Bain…The more I read and hear, the more evident it is becoming that the experts are not nearly as concerned about the arm length thing as the fans are. And you really can’t argue that he’s gotten the job done with what he has, to the point where he will be a high first round pick in the NFL. So I’m warming up to him as the pick if my four favorites are already gone (Love, Downs, Styles, Tate)

 

[skinsinparadise]

It isn't but Parsons is a pure speed rusher who will turning the corner rather than a speed to power guy and for pass rushers the pure speed guys are the ones least affected by arm length

Also Parson's has massive hands.

The thing about Bain isn't just the arm length. He's also 6 '2, which is on the short side for the spot and has small hands.

 

[HOF44]

…

And no longer than a few hours later a Patriots coach told a room of coaches that exact same thing and they were going to correct Campbell’s launch point.

What’s a launch point in regards to an O lineman. Haven’t heard that term before.

 

[KDawg]

What’s a launch point in regards to an O lineman. Haven’t heard that term before.

Pocket depth and set on the DL. The goa is a clear pockets some use the umbrella, some set the width with guards and depth with tackles.

They are going to change the way Campbell sets technically and spatially to help him.

 

[KDawg]

Also Parson's has massive hands.

The thing about Bain isn't just the arm length. He's also 6 '2, which is on the short side for the spot and has small hands.

Same coach on hand size, “I’m not even going to comment on that, this isn’t a dick measuring contest.”

 

[SkinDeep]

BTW my hands are huge. Amazing girth on these fingers.