The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Conn]

I’m no expert either but putting Downs in the same category as Reed and Polamalu doesn’t sit right with me when those guys were freaks in coverage. Downs is smart as hell but most of what I’ve seen from evaluators still puts him at his most comfortable closer to the line of scrimmage. That gives me a small amount of pause taking him at 7

 

[DWinzit]

Here's what I mean about passes defended...does this mean he can kind of do the Van Ginkel role? I don't know. Van Ginkel only had 4 passes defended in his 2 college seasons. But as a professional, Van Ginkel has 37 passes defended to 35.5 sacks. Last season's numbers were 10 PD's to 7 Sacks. I'm not too stressed about "we must find our Van Ginkel" because Luvu will probably fill that role of moving across the LoS and dropping into coverage. He's not as good at sniffing out screens and disrupting them as a pass rusher like Van Ginkel, but most aren't. You know who is though as a draft prospect? Cashius Howell.

Howell has some short comings, so this isn't a "we must draft him" post, but it's a fun thing to consider that's unique among all the Edge rushers here. Not listed here is Arvell Reese (2 passes defended this season, I don't think he started last season), as his NFL position is a big "who knows" as well. His last few college games he barely got any pass rush snaps, he was mostly in lateral coverage responsibilities away from the action. Mirroring RB's in the flat, following a guy in motion, etc. Reese's end of season "disappearing" is a narrative I disagree with. His usage was wildly different, and opposing offenses weren't going in his direction.

Individuals	David Bailey	Reuben Bain	Cashius Howell	TJ Parker	Keldric Faulk	Akheem Mesidor
Passes Defended last 2 seasons combined	4	1	13	2	5	0
Simplified Table	Cashius Howell	All Other 1st Round Edges Combined
Passes Defended last 2 seasons combined	13	12

At a glance I like Howell as a second tier option. A defensive group with the likes of Mesidor, Parker and Faulk that would be a trade down from pick 7 option beginning around lets say pick 12 or a little later. Can he hold up on non passing downs. He is a nice fit on passing downs due to both his ability drop at least some in pass defense and his pass rushing prowess.

We are fortunate there are so many good pass rushers in the draft. At this point it is hard to move off the top group with pick 7 if one of them fall to us. It's a shame we aren't selecting at 5...oh what more options we could have.

I'll do a deeper dive into these players down the line. I also look forward to reading some of the other posters perspectives on him and the rest of the group

 

[DWinzit]

Josiah Trotter at linebacker would be such an incredible snag. I think he is my favorite backer in this class.

I still need to review players like Trotter. What is your take on Anthony Hill? I feel like he would be a good fit for us. He was the first player I took a liking to outside of Bailey and first I posted on in his thread.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I’m no expert either but putting Downs in the same category as Reed and Polamolu doesn’t sit right with me when those guys were freaks in coverage. Downs is smart as hell but most of what I’ve seen from evaluators still puts him at his most comfortable closer to the line of scrimmage. That gives me a small amount of pause taking him at 7

If you go onto other online communities, they generally declare Downs to be as smart/instinctive as Reed, as athletic as Polamalu, and ok...maybe not the sheer size of Sean Taylor. But he's not any of those 3 guys. Those guys were One of a pool of just One (them) in college for doing what they did.

Polamalu has lots of highlights of him jumping over the offensive line to sack a QB or tackle a RB for a loss. That showed up in testing, his vertical jump was a ridiculous 43.5". Sean Taylor moved incredibly well for someone who was 6'3 and 230 pounds. Like the Derrick Henry of safeties. Reed had 21 interceptions in college, that's 3.5 times as many as Downs. In fact, Downs 2 interceptions this season were the only 2 passes defensed that season. He didn't get his hands on anything else. His two interceptions are, well, Grambling State QB not seeing he showed blitz then dropped into a Hook Zone, and a slow lob to a corner where 2 receivers were running routes way too close together for that type of throw. Downs did everything right on those, and his instincts that the QB wasn't going for the Quick Out but instead the Corner Route kicked in immediately. But neither show high level coverage play where his back was to the ball, then had to turn and locate it, or high point and fight a receiver for it.

There are coverage worries further down the field with Downs. He's still a really good safety prospect, but those that say they're worried he can't handle Deep Middle regularly, and might be just OK in Deep Halves have valid concerns. I know highlights aren't everything, but if all the highlights are him doing work in short/intermediate coverages and only one play even has him aligned in a deeper coverage then maybe Ohio State used him that way because he was much better closer to the LoS than further.

I like Downs. I think our defense would be better with Downs. But pick #7 is a bit rich for a position that's worth a little less, and someone that doesn't quite check all the boxes for unique talent.

 

[Conn]

If you go onto other online communities, they generally declare Downs to be as smart/instinctive as Reed, as athletic as Polamalu, and ok...maybe not the sheer size of Sean Taylor. But he's not any of those 3 guys. Those guys were One of a pool of just One (them) in college for doing what they did.

Polamalu has lots of highlights of him jumping over the offensive line to sack a QB or tackle a RB for a loss. That showed up in testing, his vertical jump was a ridiculous 43.5". Sean Taylor moved incredibly well for someone who was 6'3 and 230 pounds. Like the Derrick Henry of safeties. Reed had 21 interceptions in college, that's 3.5 times as many as Downs. In fact, Downs 2 interceptions this season were the only 2 passes defensed that season. He didn't get his hands on anything else. His two interceptions are, well, Grambling State QB not seeing he showed blitz then dropped into a Hook Zone, and a slow lob to a corner where 2 receivers were running routes way too close together for that type of throw. Downs did everything right on those, and his instincts that the QB wasn't going for the Quick Out but instead the Corner Route kicked in immediately. But neither show high level coverage play where his back was to the ball, then had to turn and locate it, or high point and fight a receiver for it.

There are coverage worries further down the field with Downs. He's still a really good safety prospect, but those that say they're worried he can't handle Deep Middle regularly, and might be just OK in Deep Halves have valid concerns. I know highlights aren't everything, but if all the highlights are him doing work in short/intermediate coverages and only one play even has him aligned in a deeper coverage then maybe Ohio State used him that way because he was much better closer to the LoS than further.

I like Downs. I think our defense would be better with Downs. But pick #7 is a bit rich for a position that's worth a little less, and someone that doesn't quite check all the boxes for unique talent.

Agree with this and think it’s well-stated. I’ll just add that anyone who thinks Downs is as athletic as Polamalu is nuts and drinking a special Kool Aid. I actually don’t think he’s the athlete that any of those special safeties are that people want him to be. And yeah, he’ll have to be his own thing either way to succeed. But just as a point of comparison.

 

[Chris]

I realize I’m an outlier on most things so I’ll double down. 😉

If Downs is seen as a multi-dimensional talent (dare I say force multiplier 🫣) by the organization, then #7 is not too rich. I’ll worry about cap concerns for future contracts at other positions down the road. This defense is in dire need of difference making talent and he looks like exactly that to me.

 

[Gooseneck]

The Washington Redskins selected safety Sean Taylor with the fifth overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. Hailing from the University of Miami, he was widely regarded for his intense playstyle, speed, and hard-hitting ability, quickly becoming a standout defensive player during his four seasons with the team.

 

[philibusters]

I’m no expert either but putting Downs in the same category as Reed and Polamalu doesn’t sit right with me when those guys were freaks in coverage. Downs is smart as hell but most of what I’ve seen from evaluators still puts him at his most comfortable closer to the line of scrimmage. That gives me a small amount of pause taking him at 7

Caleb Downs demonstrates elite coverage traits (compared to other prospects). That said his scouting profile aligns more with a box-adjacent disruptor than a true post safety. I agree that comparing him to Reed orPolamalu tier is premature because those guys were math changers and its unlikely Downs ever reaches that level.

Ed Reed was the gold standard for centerfield or Middle of Field Closed coverage. His value wasn't just in his sideline-to-sideline range, but in his vision-to-trigger speed. He operated primarily in the deep third, using elite pedal mechanics and eye discipline to bait quarterbacks into vertical windows. He was an eraser who took away the deep half of the field by anticipating the flight of the ball before it was even released.

Troy Polamalu represented the hybrid apex or the box-strong safety. He functioned as a free-lancer within the eight-man front, specializing in robber techniques and flat-to-curl transitions. He lived in the chaos near the line of scrimmage, disrupting the mesh point on run plays and wrecking the timing of short-area passing concepts. His coverage skills were more similar to Downs coverage skills than Reed's.

Downs thrives when his eyes are downhill. His elite skill set isn't tracking a fifty-yard post route from a deep backpedal; it is his click-and-close ability on intermediate concepts. He excels when he can rob the middle of the field by dropping from a two-high shell into the hole to jump Bang-8s, deep digs, and over routes. Compared to other prospects, his ability to break on in cutting routes is elite (however saying he is elite compared to other prospects is not saying he will be elite by NFL standards, being the best in your draft class at something does not equal HOF). However, as a single-high deep safety, he lacks the pure range and vertical tracking required of a premier post defender (or even the tops guys in the draft class like Genesis Smith). He is far more lethal as a plus-one in the run fit or as a bracket defender on a primary slot receiver.

There is a massive difference between a really good player who makes 3 pro bowls over a 11 year career and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Players like Justin Simmons or Budda Baker are elite system safeties who execute their assignments at a high level and provide defensive stability. I think that is Caleb Downs realistic over/under. The unicorns like Reed and Polamalu didn't just play within a system; they broke the offense’s math. Until Downs proves he can erase an entire vertical quadrant or consistently teleport into the backfield to disrupt the snap, the comparison remains a projection rather than a reality.

 

[HTTR]

I realize I’m an outlier on most things so I’ll double down. 😉

If Downs is seen as a multi-dimensional talent (dare I say force multiplier 🫣) by the organization, then #7 is not too rich. I’ll worry about cap concerns for future contracts at other positions down the road. This defense is in dire need of difference making talent and he looks like exactly that to me.

He is seen that way by many. #1 on PFF I believe add top 10 on almost every board and mock draft. Assuming we take care of edge and receiver in free agency, he’s the guy for me. If not, we may be forced to draft for need instead.

The thing I like is that he gives us a long-term QB of the defense to go with our long-term QB on offense. And if we wind up changing schemes several times along the way, he’ll be good in any of them.

I don’t think we should pass him up just because he may not be the next Ed Reed or Polamalu. He’s clearly one of the best safety prospects in years, and a perfect fit for the scheme we appear to be switching to this year.

 

[Primus Porcus]

He is seen that way by many. #1 on PFF I believe add top 10 on almost every board and mock draft. Assuming we take care of edge and receiver in free agency, he’s the guy for me. If not, we may be forced to draft for need instead.

The thing I like is that he gives us a long-term QB of the defense to go with our long-term QB on offense. And if we wind up changing schemes several times along the way, he’ll be good in any of them.

I don’t think we should pass him up just because he may not be the next Ed Reed or Polamalu. He’s clearly one of the best safety prospects in years, and a perfect fit for the scheme we appear to be switching to this year.

I'm more and more getting to the point of not doing the bold / underlined part. For years i've argued you ALWAYS take a player with need being about 50% of the balance when deciding on a player, and more and more (especially in the 1st round) i've started to drift away from that. Picking 7th, now i'm finding myself to say position be damned (outside of LS / P / K / QB), the player chosen needs to be an Elite talent over everything else. If they view someone like Bain, as a solid starter, but Downs as an Elite level game changer, give me the game changer. For so long i've seen teams take players and i've asked myself "why, you have XXX, why spend that pick?" only to have them turn out a top talent player and finding myself wanting THAT.

Ultimately, I think we're in a decent position to take BPA, and it will happen to be at a position that we stand to improve, but give me the difference maker at no. 7 overall, even if there's a bigger 'need' on the board.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[HTTR]

I'm more and more getting to the point of not doing the bold / underlined part. For years i've argued you ALWAYS take a player with need being about 50% of the balance when deciding on a player, and more and more (especially in the 1st round) i've started to drift away from that. Picking 7th, now i'm finding myself to say position be damned (outside of LS / P / K / QB), the player chosen needs to be an Elite talent over everything else. If they view someone like Bain, as a solid starter, but Downs as an Elite level game changer, give me the game changer. For so long i've seen teams take players and i've asked myself "why, you have XXX, why spend that pick?" only to have them turn out a top talent player and finding myself wanting THAT.

Ultimately, I think we're in a decent position to take BPA, and it will happen to be at a position that we stand to improve, but give me the difference maker at no. 7 overall, even if there's a bigger 'need' on the board.

That’s where I’m at. Sign free agents for need. Draft for talent. The exception being if you don’t have a franchise quarterback.

 

[method man]

I’ve been thinking this since Saleh’s hiring. He fits his defense really well.

 

[philibusters]

Other than teh Raiders taking Mendoza, I don't have a great feel for who is tkaing who ahead of us. The Giants and Browns need O-Line and I am kind of hoping they both go there because that would leave more good defensive prospects on the board when we pick.

 

[GibbsSkins]

Some tweets from X:

 

[skinsinparadise]

Other than teh Raiders taking Mendoza, I don't have a great feel for who is tkaing who ahead of us. The Giants and Browns need O-Line and I am kind of hoping they both go there because that would leave more good defensive prospects on the board when we pick.

Giants feel like WR or O line. Their O line actually is decent, PFF ranks it ahead of Washington, but we are so used to it sucking that its lodged in our thoughts but I do think Harbaugh (who is coming off arrogant as heck already so he fits that market) loves the big boys up front to he might indulge and strengthen it some more.

The NY media seems to think WR. I get the thought. Most teams, sans Adam Peters, like to load up their young QBs with weapons to help groom their confidence among other things.

The Cards most think go O line. Browns most think go WR. Jets and Titans most think go edge.

I think the Giants are the biggest wildcards in the mix.

It's still early but it feels like it might be between Reese and Downs at 7 if they go defense. Some draft insider, forgetting whom, maybe it was Brugler who said asking around during the Senior Bowl, the vibe he got was Downs and Styles aren't going as early as the mock draft types think.

 

[HTTR]

I’m a little worried NYG take Downs

 

[philibusters]

Giants feel like WR or O line. Their O line actually is decent, PFF ranks it ahead of Washington, but we are so used to it sucking that its lodged in our thoughts but I do think Harbaugh (who is coming off arrogant as heck already so he fits that market) loves the big boys up front to he might indulge and strengthen it some more.

The NY media seems to think WR. I get the thought. Most teams, sans Adam Peters, like to load up their young QBs with weapons to help groom their confidence among other things.

The Cards most think go O line. Browns most think go WR. Jets and Titans most think go edge.

I think the Giants are the biggest wildcards in the mix.

It's still early but it feels like it might be between Reese and Downs at 7 if they go defense. Some draft insider, forgetting whom, maybe it was Brugler who said asking around during the Senior Bowl, the vibe he got was Downs and Styles aren't going as early as the mock draft types think.

I forgot about the Cardinals needing O-Line.

And you are right, the Giants O-Line isn't that bad. No real weak spots even if its a bunch of average players. I'd take our O-Line over it (on paper), but its better than I was thinking. WR would make sense for the Giants. While I don't think any of the top 3 WR's are Nabers quality, they will get a quality guy and that should give them a decent 1-2 punch at WR moving forward.

 

[philibusters]

I’m a little worried NYG take Downs

In some ways, I feel like the Giants defense underachieved way more than our defense the past two years. Their defense was a little bit better but the talent was way way better. On the D-Line you Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibadouex, Bobby O. at LB, in the secondary Andru Phillips in the nickel, Javon Holland, Paulson Adebo, Tyler Nubin, and even a player like Deonte Banks is talented even if has been disappointing. I feel like with a good DC, that could easily be a top 8 defense next year. Adding Downs to that group is just adding a really good player to an already very talented defense so I hope not.

 

[mcdonaldrw]

I'm more and more getting to the point of not doing the bold / underlined part. For years i've argued you ALWAYS take a player with need being about 50% of the balance when deciding on a player, and more and more (especially in the 1st round) i've started to drift away from that. Picking 7th, now i'm finding myself to say position be damned (outside of LS / P / K / QB), the player chosen needs to be an Elite talent over everything else. If they view someone like Bain, as a solid starter, but Downs as an Elite level game changer, give me the game changer. For so long i've seen teams take players and i've asked myself "why, you have XXX, why spend that pick?" only to have them turn out a top talent player and finding myself wanting THAT.

Ultimately, I think we're in a decent position to take BPA, and it will happen to be at a position that we stand to improve, but give me the difference maker at no. 7 overall, even if there's a bigger 'need' on the board.

You know you are in trouble when the only position you don't go BPA is the QB. As it stands now there is not a single position that we don't need, so BPA for the team is easy as it gives us the best player available while filling a need.