Winter Weather Forecast, 2013-2014
Welcome to the winter season and it is that time again when a forecast is put forth. Last year, the record was quite good. Snow totals came in close to predictions for many areas and others had a bit less than forecasted. The weather patterns were pretty much as predicted and while that is good for a little chest thumping, it means nothing now with a new season upon us.
Unlike last year, there will be no maps or major explanations of how the various oscillations will affect your region. I’ll keep it simple and try to give an easy to understand forecast. Keep in mind that trying to proffer a prognostication for an entire season across all regions is tricky, but the technology continues to improve each year. With that in mind, let’s get to the forecasts for each region, including yours.
New England:
The first half of winter will be fairly normal with temps staying about average. The second half of winter (early January to mid or late March) could see some of the coldest temperatures in several years. It could come in three waves or one prolonged period of time – mostly in the early January to early March timeframe. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with one large snowfall and one blizzard potential in mid January to late February.
Mid Atlantic - Northeast (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New York):
The first half of winter will be fairly normal with temps ranging between slightly mild and a bit below normal at times. The second half of winter (mid January to late February/mid March) could see some of the coldest temperatures in many years. It could come in two waves or one prolonged period of time – mostly in the mid January to mid February timeframe. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with one large snowfall/blizzard potential in late January to mid February.
Mid Atlantic – Southeast (Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, East Tennessee, Great Smoky Mountains, Blue Ridge):
The first half of winter will have slightly below normal temps with a few mild days mixed in, especially in Virginia and North Carolina. The second half of winter (early January to late February/early March) could see some of the coldest temperatures in several years. In West Virginia, it could be bitterly cold at times. It should come in two waves or one prolonged period of time – mostly in the early January to late February timeframe. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with one large snowfall/blizzard potential in late January to mid February for West Virginia. For East Tennessee and inland sections of Virginia and North Carolina, there will be two or three above average snowfalls and one potential ice storm. In coastal regions, two average snowfalls and one major ice storm is possible.
Southeast, Florida Peninsula, Gulf Coast:
Temperatures in this region will be slightly below average for the entire winter. The potential for any tornadic activity is minimal to nearly non-existent, but one late season system can’t be ruled out. Precipitation will be near normal for the entire winter with one chance for an ice storm in inland South Carolina, central Georgia, and central Alabama. A small chance exists for a minor ice event along the Gulf Coast region by late January to mid February. Two or three smaller snowfalls are possible in northern Alabama, northern Georgia and inland South Carolina.
Mid South (West Tennessee, Northern Mississippi, Eastern Arkansas, Southeast Missouri):
The first half of winter will have below normal temps with a few mild days mixed in. There will be one very cold period that starts this week and it will last about ten days. The second half of winter (early January to late February) could see two or three record breaking cold spells with one of those being bitterly cold. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with two above average storms possible and one or two minor events. Several major ice storms are possible and two of them could occur late this week and later this coming weekend. Three to five ice storms with major accumulations are possible in the second half of winter.
Great Lakes, Midwest, Upper Mississippi Valley:
The first half of winter will have below normal temps with a few mild days mixed in. The lake effect snows will be off and on and should provide the usual amounts of precipitation. The second half of winter (early January to mid March) could see three or four record breaking cold spells with one of those being bitterly cold. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with four above average storms possible and one or two ice storms in the southern areas. Lake effect snows during the colder periods could bring massive amounts of snow to the usual places. One or two could be record breaking, depending on location.
Southern Plains, Southwest:
For December, this region will see below average temps and two chances for ice storms. The Southern Plains and Southwest will see slightly above average temperatures for the remainder of winter with the exceptions being the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. In those areas, ice storms and snowfalls could be a bit above average in the second half of winter.
Northern Plains:
Temperatures will be well below average for most of the winter and precipitation will be just below average too. Three to five bitter cold spells could send temperatures well below zero in the January to mid March timeframe.
Rockies, Ski Resorts:
Temperatures will be about average and the snowfalls will be plentiful. This could be the best skiing season in years for Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and California. The trend could last well into April.
West Coast:
Normal temps and near normal precipitation is expected for Oregon and California this winter. Santa Ana winds could make an appearance or two for Southern California in the second half of winter with fire possibilities remaining at just below average.
Pacific Northwest:
Temperatures will be a bit above average for the winter of 2013-2014. Precipitation will be about average with lower elevations receiving the typical amounts of rainfall and the mountains (Olympics and Cascades) having an average snowfall season.
There is your winter weather forecast for 2013-2014. Stay up to date with your local weather office and local broadcasters for upcoming storms in your area. When warranted, I will send out emails, posts, and Facebook messages as needed. See you as we go along.
