Winter Weather Forecast/Thread, 2013-2014

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Burgundy Burner

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Winter Weather Forecast, 2013-2014​

Welcome to the winter season and it is that time again when a forecast is put forth. Last year, the record was quite good. Snow totals came in close to predictions for many areas and others had a bit less than forecasted. The weather patterns were pretty much as predicted and while that is good for a little chest thumping, it means nothing now with a new season upon us.

Unlike last year, there will be no maps or major explanations of how the various oscillations will affect your region. I’ll keep it simple and try to give an easy to understand forecast. Keep in mind that trying to proffer a prognostication for an entire season across all regions is tricky, but the technology continues to improve each year. With that in mind, let’s get to the forecasts for each region, including yours.

New England:
The first half of winter will be fairly normal with temps staying about average. The second half of winter (early January to mid or late March) could see some of the coldest temperatures in several years. It could come in three waves or one prolonged period of time – mostly in the early January to early March timeframe. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with one large snowfall and one blizzard potential in mid January to late February.

Mid Atlantic - Northeast (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New York):
The first half of winter will be fairly normal with temps ranging between slightly mild and a bit below normal at times. The second half of winter (mid January to late February/mid March) could see some of the coldest temperatures in many years. It could come in two waves or one prolonged period of time – mostly in the mid January to mid February timeframe. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with one large snowfall/blizzard potential in late January to mid February.

Mid Atlantic – Southeast (Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, East Tennessee, Great Smoky Mountains, Blue Ridge):
The first half of winter will have slightly below normal temps with a few mild days mixed in, especially in Virginia and North Carolina. The second half of winter (early January to late February/early March) could see some of the coldest temperatures in several years. In West Virginia, it could be bitterly cold at times. It should come in two waves or one prolonged period of time – mostly in the early January to late February timeframe. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with one large snowfall/blizzard potential in late January to mid February for West Virginia. For East Tennessee and inland sections of Virginia and North Carolina, there will be two or three above average snowfalls and one potential ice storm. In coastal regions, two average snowfalls and one major ice storm is possible.

Southeast, Florida Peninsula, Gulf Coast:
Temperatures in this region will be slightly below average for the entire winter. The potential for any tornadic activity is minimal to nearly non-existent, but one late season system can’t be ruled out. Precipitation will be near normal for the entire winter with one chance for an ice storm in inland South Carolina, central Georgia, and central Alabama. A small chance exists for a minor ice event along the Gulf Coast region by late January to mid February. Two or three smaller snowfalls are possible in northern Alabama, northern Georgia and inland South Carolina.

Mid South (West Tennessee, Northern Mississippi, Eastern Arkansas, Southeast Missouri):
The first half of winter will have below normal temps with a few mild days mixed in. There will be one very cold period that starts this week and it will last about ten days. The second half of winter (early January to late February) could see two or three record breaking cold spells with one of those being bitterly cold. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with two above average storms possible and one or two minor events. Several major ice storms are possible and two of them could occur late this week and later this coming weekend. Three to five ice storms with major accumulations are possible in the second half of winter.

Great Lakes, Midwest, Upper Mississippi Valley:
The first half of winter will have below normal temps with a few mild days mixed in. The lake effect snows will be off and on and should provide the usual amounts of precipitation. The second half of winter (early January to mid March) could see three or four record breaking cold spells with one of those being bitterly cold. Snowfall totals will be a bit above average this season with four above average storms possible and one or two ice storms in the southern areas. Lake effect snows during the colder periods could bring massive amounts of snow to the usual places. One or two could be record breaking, depending on location.

Southern Plains, Southwest:
For December, this region will see below average temps and two chances for ice storms. The Southern Plains and Southwest will see slightly above average temperatures for the remainder of winter with the exceptions being the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. In those areas, ice storms and snowfalls could be a bit above average in the second half of winter.

Northern Plains:
Temperatures will be well below average for most of the winter and precipitation will be just below average too. Three to five bitter cold spells could send temperatures well below zero in the January to mid March timeframe.

Rockies, Ski Resorts:
Temperatures will be about average and the snowfalls will be plentiful. This could be the best skiing season in years for Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and California. The trend could last well into April.

West Coast:
Normal temps and near normal precipitation is expected for Oregon and California this winter. Santa Ana winds could make an appearance or two for Southern California in the second half of winter with fire possibilities remaining at just below average.

Pacific Northwest:
Temperatures will be a bit above average for the winter of 2013-2014. Precipitation will be about average with lower elevations receiving the typical amounts of rainfall and the mountains (Olympics and Cascades) having an average snowfall season.

There is your winter weather forecast for 2013-2014. Stay up to date with your local weather office and local broadcasters for upcoming storms in your area. When warranted, I will send out emails, posts, and Facebook messages as needed. See you as we go along.
 

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I had a dream about a decent storm in the Mid Atlantic just before the new year. I know it was just a dream, but a lot of my dreams are eerily accurate. Don't kill my dreams :laugh:
 

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Actually, your dream is not too far from the actual prediction. These types of forecasts are 50-50 at best. I work with a team of 46 meteorologists and climate experts to form this forecast each year. It takes about five months to formulate and bring it to the masses. We'll see what happens in the coming months.

Here is the latest for where I live. It is going to be a mess and we could repeat this scenario on Sunday.

For the entire Mid South Region, including Memphis metro.

Ice Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 am to 6 PM CST Friday.

* Ice accumulations - half inch to three quarters of an inch.

* Snow/sleet accumulations... less than one inch.

* Timing: 6 am CST Friday morning through 6 PM CST Friday evening.

* Impacts: Very hazardous travel is expected. Numerous downed tree branches, trees, and power lines that may lead to the potential for widespread and prolonged power outages. Falling trees and tree branches may also become a danger to anyone outdoors.

Precautionary/preparedness actions:

An Ice Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected. Significant amounts of ice accumulations will make travel dangerous or impossible. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce will likely be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Ice accumulations and winds will likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches that add to the danger.
 

Miles Monroe

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Well, they blew it for the Florida forecast. We've been averaging five to six degrees above normal since the beginning of October. While it's great for the tourists and seasonal residents, it down right sucks for us folks that have to work in it. 86 when I went out for lunch, and with little breeze, the shop was about 88 by days end. This friggin heat is gettin me nuckin futs !
 

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Who do you mean by "they"? :)

And everything here is covered in ice. Having supper delivered by the staff tonight. No way I'm walking out there on the pavement.
 

Snydershrugged

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It was 19 last week 75 today and will be in the 30's on Sunday here. Skitzo weather of the Carolinas
 

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Keep in mind that winter has a few months to go. Also, while we were being blasted by this ice storm, it was in the low 80s just 150 miles to our south this afternoon. Weather happens and it is fascinating to study.
 

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80s here. All week.

I'm wearing shorts right now with the door open.
 

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Keep in mind that winter has a few months to go. Also, while we were being blasted by this ice storm, it was in the low 80s just 150 miles to our south this afternoon. Weather happens and it is fascinating to study.
Understood. We've had winters where it never cooled down, and we've had some very cold, well, by our standards at least. I pray for the cold one's. Standing next to or over 200 degree engines in high ambient temps wears on ya.
 

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Sleet, ice, deep-freeze hit large swath of US

Much of this story centers on Memphis and the surrounding areas - not surprising when I look out this morning and everything is covered in ice for the third straight day. Got hammered again during the overnight. So ready for this system to leave. For those of you in the mid Atlantic, enjoy it - your turn.

In hibernation mode for another day here. Bah.
 

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Ha! OK I miss Florida right about now... its been cold as shit (for here) in LA! Dammit
 

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Haha, I saw that picture posted on Facebook with the caption "National Hate Florida Day." LOL.

I'm on the same goddamn latitude as Florida and still cold as balls! Its not fair! :)
 

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A decent snow storm is underway here in the Akron Ohio area! Yesterday we got about 3" of lake effect snow, last night and this morning we got about another 2-3" of snow from a storm. Today and tonight we are supposed to get another 3-6" and tomorrow an additional 6-8". Looking at the radar we are in a 50 mile wide area that the snow is and has been moving threw for the past day or so. This could end up to be a big one for us, and by big one I mean people even acknowledge that it is snowing lol. It is not a big deal up here when we get a foot or more of snow, such a change from when I lived in VA.

I also saw that monday and tuesday the lows are supposed to be around minus 10 and the highs around zero. I guess winter is here!
 

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Northeast Blizzard, Powerful Winds, Bitter Cold

The Northeast is under an array of watches, warnings, and advisories. Strong winds will affect the eastern half of the nation over the next two days. Very cold conditions are set to pay a visit in many areas.

The Northeast:
Beginning this evening, the northeast is under the gun for heavy snowfalls and blizzard conditions. For coastal New England, blizzard warnings are up and the amounts of snow could total close to twenty inches in some locations. All travel by early evening should be suspended. In the Delaware Valley locations, heavy snow with strong winds will create whiteout conditions by early Thursday morning. Drifting snow could cause some roads to be blocked for extended periods of time. To the west of Philadelphia, expect a general four to five inches of snow. In Southern New Jersey, expect amounts to be in the six to eight inch range. A couple of locations in inland South Jersey could reach ten inches. Travel is not recommended.

Windy conditions:
The eastern half of the nation will experience strong winds for the next two days. Wind chill factors will be well below normal in most areas with northern tier states seeing chill readings at thirty below and lower. By Saturday morning, the strong winds will be a memory.

Bitter cold:
For the next two days, bitter cold will invade the mid south, Great Lakes region, Mississippi Valley, southeast, northeast, and mid Atlantic. A one or two day break from the cold will follow, but bitter cold returns by late Sunday and for most of next week. Dress warmly and do not subject yourself to hypothermia.

Statement will be updated, if needed.
 

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