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where were we and where are we headed?


This is a first salvo at understanding what the FO has done/is doing. It's not the last word. Just SA.

1) Current Roster new players with less than 2/3 yrs experience. (FA = URFA or UDFA)
- Armstrong: Practice Squad from previous yrs
- Banks: FA
- Beck: Trade
- Gano: FA
- Lichtenstieger: FA
- Paulsen: FA
- Riley: Drafted 4th Rnd
- Simpson: FA
- Sundberg: FA
- Torain: FA
- Williams: Drafted 1st Rnd
- Williams: FA
- Young: FA

2) Current Roster new Vets:
- Brown: Traded 2011 3rd or 4th rnd pick
- Bryant: FA
- Buchanon: FA
- Carricker: Traded 2010 draft pick
- Galloway: FA
- Grossman: FA
- Hicks: FA
- Holliday: FA
- Kemo: FA
- McNabb: Traded 2010 2nd and 2011 3rd or 4th rnd
- Smith: FA

3) Rest: On the roster from last year

If I missed a player or two and a couple trades - sue me! I'm just looking for patterns and implications leading into the unknown (i.e., next season).

Some crude generalizations:

1) Other than the no-brainer 4th pick in the draft...the Redskin pattern of not getting much out of the draft continues. We hvae already traded a 3rd and a 4th from the 2011 draft.

2) Of the 2010 draft picks, 2 made the final roster...1 starts.

3) The influx of youth on this squad came almost entirely from Free Agents. Other than Torain, the jury is out on whether any of these folks will stick long term. Armstrong looks like a player, but I happen to think his place is contingent to whom the Skins sign next off-season. He's not an X receiver....but if we sign/draft a top tier Z receiver, Armstrong is odd man out. We'll have to wait and see. Otherwise, IMO, we are making due...filling gaps due to a lack of draft picks.

4) Vet free agent signings have resulted...depending on how you look at it...in 5 starters. Thus far...again IMO...only McNabb and Brown qualify as bona fide core starters. The others bring value....but not a lot. That includes Carricker who may or may not be around for the long haul. Hard to tell since this defense is a long ways from being manned the way it will be 2 seasons from now.

The obvious:

-The first step was purging all the inherited players who didn't cut it or fit the new profile

-The new FO didn't have a lot of options so they had to go the FA route. THIS IS CLEALRY A ROSTER STRATEGY PREDICATED ON FREE AGENCY. There hasn't been that much of a change in this respect from previous FO activity...with the big caveat that we have shifted from big buck signings to "cheap"/rented talent. No idea what the cash reserve presently is...but you do this (other than because you have fewer draft picks) cuz you are at your cap limit or because you are saving for a future big dive(s).

- Major FA contributors to the team have come from the vet end of signings..IMO

- The 2010 draft (yes..too early to tell) hasn't contributed much (other than T. Williams)

- The new FO has continued the pattern of trading draft picks for immediate return

Quick Thoughts:

- Given the HEAVY FA dependencies....the FO has actually done a reasonable job building a competitive team. We all get frustrated with this or that short-coming, but overall the level of play has improved from last season

- Where the new talent is going to come from isn't clear. It would appear we need to trade down next draft to infuse more talent into the roster. Assuming we finish around 8-8...not sure how much leverage we will have. We have already traded the 3rd and 4th picks.

- We will likely see more FA signings next season.

- Unless Beck is the answer...a BIG looming issue is where the QB of the future is hiding

SOOOO.....you're Bruce Allen.....what's your plan for 2011 and beyond? How do you repair the numerous holes wwe are starting to understand/witness every Sunday?
Good questions. I anticipate giving Beck through next season to prove in practice, TC and Preseason that he is capable of being our starter when McNabb is ready to hang it up. The caveat there is that if he sucks big time this year in practice, or gets into a game and just bites, they cut ties. The other caveat is if McNabb gets injured or takes a dive off a cliff performance-wise, they may feel pressure to do something more quickly. Seems to me they will take their time evaluating Beck for a couple of seasons, if he isn't the answer, they will draft McNabb's replacement in the 2012 draft, and let Donovan mentor him for a year or two.

This off season, I expect them to shore up the interior of the line and add a premier WR. Some will be done through the draft, mostly through FA. Allen took our line from a cluster-**** last year to mediocre (at least) in one off season. I have a feeling he can make a strength next year.

WR is a little trickier. Very rare is the WR who can come in and dominate right away after being drafted. Usually take a couple of years. That doesn't seem to be our MO right now. I would guess we will draft a WR in the second round, if someone is there we like, and let them develop while we bring in a FA as well. No idea who that would be, however.

There are a lot of holes on the defense right now b/c it looks like the 3-4 is taking longer to adjust to than we first thought. By the end of the year, the holes on that side of the ball may be completely different, there may be more holes, or fewer holes than we think right now. We'll have to see.

And by the way, way too early to do this. :)
I think the jury is very much still out on this years draft class, Al. Sure, Williams is the only one starting and Riley is the only other one still on the roster of 53 but we have 3 guys on the Practice Squad too. Two of those guys are OL and may be there because the staff thinks they have the raw tools but need daily work to get it.

I see a draft pick on the PS from 3 years ago. Rob Jackson just won't go away which tells me they see something in him too. My guess is he is stuck there trying to work his body in either being a LB or a DE in the 3-4 but if the coaches didn't think he had a shot at doing it he would be gone.

There is also Robert Henson on the IR, one of last years draft picks. He looked good in the pre-season and I thought had a shot at playing time before he got injured.

I won't even get into Malcolm Kelly... :(

So going forward, what does that mean? I don't know other than we won't know what we got from the last 2 drafts for another couple of years.

We do know they have shopped a number of guys . . . Haynesworth and Thomas chief among them. Obviously Haynesworth is bigger value there although with his improved play this last weekend, he may not go anywhere till at least the off season. Not sure anyone would give us more than a 6th or 7th for Thomas at this point so not much there I don't think.

However, we have seen that Allen/Shanahan are not going to give guys away either. Not if they can help it.

I don't think the D is going to really improve until we see a bonafide NT in there who can't be moved. Kemo is OK but the guy you want playing the majority of your snaps for you and Al would be better served in a DE position I think. That being the case, if I am Allen/Shanahan I am looking to go NT with one of those first two picks next year. Likely I go OL with the other.

Of course, this is without considering that we have a number of guys starting who are UFAs next year . . . like Rogers and McIntosh. If those guys are not kept, do we have their replacements on the roster now? For Rogers, I think the answer is no. With McIntosh it might be Riley or Henson. So do you pony up to keep these two guys or not? No clue.

Of course, a lot can change between now and the end of the season. Guys get hurt, sometimes with career enders (CP maybe?), young guys step up and suddenly are solid contributors, old guys fall off the cliff and are never the same again.

So yeah, after all the rambling that proves little other than I was in the office last night till after midnight working, I am with Goaldeje . . . way too early to do this.
. . . way too early to do this.

the incomplete analysis serves to help explain the problems we see on the field now. offseason/preseason laid the foundation for what can be done during the season. true....4 games is way too soon......but patterns are starting to emerge.

secondly...you can get a sense for what the offseason/preseason priorities truly were: they traded/drafted bona fide players for the O....they went with short-term/patch work gap fillers on defense. we shouldn't be surprised by what we are seeing.

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