The Preakness

[McD5]

Extreme, please pick up the white courtesy phone.

Extreme, you have a call holding.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Get your bet in early this time, McD.

 

[Elephant]

Guys, he said he picked the KD winner 11 times in a row. He hasn't said anything about the Preakness. Damn I wish I could be there this year! Final table of the 8 month long tourney I have been in is Saturday! That's OK, I will stop by Laurel before heading to the poker game and place my exacta $3 box bet on...

Extreme, what horses am I boxing in the exacta?

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Guys, he said he picked the KD winner 11 times in a row. He hasn't said anything about the Preakness. Damn I wish I could be there this year! Final table of the 8 month long tourney I have been in is Saturday! That's OK, I will stop by Laurel before heading to the poker game and place my exacta $3 box bet on...

Extreme, what horses am I boxing in the exacta?

8 month long tournament? Wowsers, that sounds awesome. How often do you play? How many people started out in it?

 

[Nobody]

It's hard not to bet on the Derby winner, especially when most of the horses lining up against him for the Preakness aren't that good.

That being said, if you want to take a gamble on an upset, go for Mr. Commons. This track is built for horses like him, and he's starting toward the outside which favors his racing style.

However, Flashpoint has lightning speed. He also has an inside starting post on a short track, so that works to his strengths. He is an alpha male though, so if he gets squeezed out early, he will implode like Paris Hilton being told to wait in line at a club.

So Animal Kingdom is the obvious choice, but if you want to wager some money on an upset, I'd say go for Mr. Commons.

 

[Nobody]

Guys, he said he picked the KD winner 11 times in a row. He hasn't said anything about the Preakness. Damn I wish I could be there this year! Final table of the 8 month long tourney I have been in is Saturday! That's OK, I will stop by Laurel before heading to the poker game and place my exacta $3 box bet on...

Extreme, what horses am I boxing in the exacta?

You know, my wife's name is Laurel. Could mean something, maybe I'll ask her to pick it for ya You never know, stranger things have happened.

As far as my record on the Preakness goes, I'm not too shabby in the same stretch that my Derby streak has been going, but at 8-3 it's hardly perfect.

 

[McD5]

Very nice Extreme. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I am thinking about betting equal amounts of money on both horses to win, as long as Animal Kingdom is 3:1.

And Lanky, prior to seeing your winning ticket, I've never heard of such a thing in over 20 years of horse betting. First, congratulations on the winning bet, and huge odds.

Secondly, try to use that edge to your advantage.

 

[Nobody]

Very nice Extreme. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I am thinking about betting equal amounts of money on both horses to win, as long as Animal Kingdom is 3:1.

And Lanky, prior to seeing your winning ticket, I've never heard of such a thing in over 20 years of horse betting. First, congratulations on the winning bet, and huge odds.

Secondly, try to use that edge to your advantage.

It's funny, when I first made the Derby pick, Animal Kingdom was a 50:1.

I tried to talk my wife into putting down some money, her father, my friends, but only you guys and 2 other people I know actually listened, and I must have told dozens of people. Imagine if you had all listened when I first told you about it

 

[McD5]

It's funny, when I first made the Derby pick, Animal Kingdom was a 50:1.

I tried to talk my wife into putting down some money, her father, my friends, but only you guys and 2 other people I know actually listened, and I must have told dozens of people. Imagine if you had all listened when I first told you about it

I know that it wouldn't have mattered where I bet-at a jai-alai place. The tickets simply say $X amount bet on the horse number to win, in my case. It doesn't even show the odds at the time the bet is placed.

Knowing this, it's always why I--and some larger players I know, wait until the last two or three minutes to bet. So as not to move the line at the betting location. At the jai-alai place, there is literally a group of people who stand there like vultures waiting for a big bet to come in, and then they rush up to bet on the same horse thinking that someone knows something. That can cost you money.

 

[McD5]

Also Extreme, the general public--the same ones that were wrong on the Derby, all seem to love this Mucho Macho Man. You didn't even mention him in your Derby post, and you were correct.

 

[Nobody]

Also Extreme, the general public--the same ones that were wrong on the Derby, all seem to love this Mucho Macho Man. You didn't even mention him in your Derby post, and you were correct.

That's because he isn't impressive. Just like Dialed In, who everyone seems to be wanting to grovel over for the Preakness. He's a quick horse, so a short track favors him, but it doesn't mean he's going to win, because he isn't.

There's only so far a great jockey can take a mediocre horse. Not every jockey has the luck of Calvin Borel.

You might notice I also said the following...

Out of all of the so called favorites, Nehro is the only one I expect to have a decent showing, and the only one in the top 5 I think has a realistic shot - but he's not going to win either.

Nehro finished second. I kinda know my ****

 

[McD5]

LOL....yes you do.

I am also a little surprised that Calvin isn't riding a horse in the Preakness. Had he won the Derby, of course he would be on the same horse in the Preakness. I'm not sure what the deal is there--why he isn't riding.

Usually I bet against the Derby winner in the Preakness. But you compared Animal Kingdom to one of the greatest of all time. Those are strong words, and it paid huge. On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you that he will win the Preakness too? 2:1 or 2 1/2:1 are hard odds to bet....but if it looks like as close to free money as possible....then it's the wise choice.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

And Lanky, prior to seeing your winning ticket, I've never heard of such a thing in over 20 years of horse betting. First, congratulations on the winning bet, and huge odds.

Secondly, try to use that edge to your advantage.

That must be a FL/Jai-Alai thing, because if you go to Vegas and bet, you'll get the odds at the time of your bet. That is pretty standard betting stuff...

I used to play a lot of poker at Jai-Alai, but never did any gambling on the ponies.

 

[McD5]

Where do you bet in Houston Lanky? At a casino? Or a smaller track?

On the topic of locking in the odds, here is a painful story that happened to yours truly:

About five years ago, I decided to skip my annual ritual of going to jai-alai, and instead used the services of a bookie over the phone for the Derby. My horse won, at 13:1. I had bet a grand on the horse to win, so I was pretty excited winning 13gs for the weekend.

Imagine my shock when I called the bookie, and found out that I had only won 7 grand on the horse. His service will only pay a maximum of 7:1 on any horse race. Placing the bet for me was just a service he provided, free-of-charge, with no vig on any losing bets. It was my fault for not asking about this before betting, and apparently it was common knowledge to his regular clients, but it was a heartbreaker.

Needless to say, I go back to jai-alai now. But it's important to know your surroundings before placing any bet.

 

[Nobody]

LOL....yes you do.

I am also a little surprised that Calvin isn't riding a horse in the Preakness. Had he won the Derby, of course he would be on the same horse in the Preakness. I'm not sure what the deal is there--why he isn't riding.

Usually I bet against the Derby winner in the Preakness. But you compared Animal Kingdom to one of the greatest of all time. Those are strong words, and it paid huge. On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you that he will win the Preakness too? 2:1 or 2 1/2:1 are hard odds to bet....but if it looks like as close to free money as possible....then it's the wise choice.

Personally, I wouldn't bet a dime on a 2:1 horse. That's just my opinion. Not that I have a dime, we already put the money you gave me to good use

I have a lot of confidence in Animal Kingdom, just not the same level of confidence I had for him in the Derby.

If you're looking to make money and want a choice of horses, I'd go with Animal Kingdom, Mr. Commons and Flashpoint. Anyone thinking Mucho Macho Man or Dialed In, do yourself a favor and save your money.

 

[McD5]

Thank You. I believe I'm going with Animal Kingdom and Mr. Commons, both to win.

 

[Nobody]

Thank You. I believe I'm going with Animal Kingdom and Mr. Commons, both to win.

I do believe you will be making some money. Good luck.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Where do you bet in Houston Lanky? At a casino? Or a smaller track?

I haven't bet in Houston, I use the online service Bodog. There's a track here (Sam Houston Race Track), but I haven't been there.

 

[McD5]

Updated odds at some places now have Mr. Commons at 30-1.



I now plan to bet Mr. Commons to show. And likely won't bet anything on Animal Kingdom, at only 2:1.

Thoughts, Extreme? I feel dirty, like I'm turning my back on AK....but 2:1? I can't get excited about that.

 

[Nobody]

Updated odds at some places now have Mr. Commons at 30-1.



I now plan to bet Mr. Commons to show. And likely won't bet anything on Animal Kingdom, at only 2:1.

Thoughts, Extreme? I feel dirty, like I'm turning my back on AK....but 2:1? I can't get excited about that.

I don't blame you, because a 2:1 isn't really a payoff to get excited about.

That being said, I think if Animal Kingdom doesn't win, he won't even finish top 3. I know that's a ballsy prediction, but I think the only two trifecta possibilities are as follows....

Animal Kingdom
Mr. Commons
Flashpoint

or

Mr. Commons
Dance City
Flashpoint


I am fairly confident that one of these two will happen.