The 2026 Draft Thread

[DWinzit]

I think it depends on how you define productin. Bain's sack production has gone up of late. However, I kind of consider pressures the better metric of production because there is just so much luck and variability involved in turning pressures into sacks and Bain had a three week stretch early in the season against USF, Cal, and Florida St wehre he had 24 pressures (but only had .5 sacks in those 3 games)

Yes! I don't know why but some people do minimize pressures. I have always heavily focused on them, especially when a player has an extremely high or low number. I tend to downgrade players with low pressure counts even if their sack totals are good.

That is an impressive number of pressures over a short span. It is impressive if the numbers are consistent versus all of the opponents and not just an inflated number against one or two smaller school, not so great OLs

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think it depends on how you define productin. Bain's sack production has gone up of late. However, I kind of consider pressures the better metric of production because there is just so much luck and variability involved in turning pressures into sacks and Bain had a three week stretch early in the season against USF, Cal, and Florida St wehre he had 24 pressures (but only had .5 sacks in those 3 games)

I mentioned it going up of late. For me partly because of his short arms, i wonder if his sack numbers are a function of that. His teammate has more sacks then he does. It just hard for me to ignore those short arms, its noticeable when watching him.

I am not down on him but I get why McShay said asking scouts about Bain, he's a polarizing prospect, mixed takes.

 

[philibusters]

I mentioned it going up of late. For me partly because of his short arms, i wonder if his sack numbers are a function of that. His teammate has more sacks then he does. It just hard for me to ignore those short arms, its noticeable when watching him.

I am not down on him but I get why McShay said asking scouts about Bain, he's a polarizing prospect, mixed takes.

Maybe but there is a lot of variability in turning pressures into sack I think a lot of its just random. Like Payne's 11.5 sack year was done off of 49 pressures (which is a very high number given the amount of pressures). The previous year he had like 47 pressures and 3.5 sacks (a low number). One way to look at is to try to figure out if he learned to finish better, but usually the pressure to sack ratio just seem to fluctuate randomly year to year. Other than that one season, Payne is never had a good pressure to sack ratio. Same with Montez Sweat. In general pressures is just a much more sticky stat than sacks. There probably is a skill and some guys will be better over their career. Its a bit like contested catches. Pickens can go from 70% to 40% and fluctate quite a bit year to year. He'll never finish near the bottom of the NFL in that metric, but despite considered the best in the game at it, its still going to fluctate a lot year to year.

Bain has 57 pressures this year (a very solid number showign good production) and 4.5 sacks (a very average number). Two year ago in 2023 as a freshman Bain had a 7.5 sacks (a good number) off just 45 pressures (a good number but not as good as teh 57 this year). I don't think Bain got worse at finishing. I think Bain was probably better in 2025 than 2023 as a pass rusher based on having 12 more pressures. I just think its variation on the sacks.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Maybe but there is a lot of variability in turning pressures into sack I think a lot of its just random. Like Payne's 11.5 sack year was done off of 49 pressures (which is a very high number given the amount of pressures). The previous year he had like 47 pressures and 3.5 sacks (a low number). One way to look at is to try to figure out if he learned to finish better, but usually the pressure to sack ratio just seem to fluctuate randomly year to year. Same with Montez Sweat. In general pressures is just a much more sticky stat than sacks.

Bain has 57 pressures this year (a very solid number showign good production) and 4.5 sacks (a very average number). Two year ago in 2023 as a freshman Bain had a 7.5 sacks (a good number) off just 45 pressures (a good number but not as good as teh 57 this year). I don't think Bain got worse at finishing. I think Bain was probably better in 2025 than 2023 as a pass rusher based on having 12 more pressures. I just think its variation on the sacks.

His pressure numbers are excellent. Production numbers weren't my central point, I flat out said its coming on. It's his size-height. But to be more specific,

A. Want to see 32 inches arm length. That's on the smallish size but its not terrible.
B. If they are sub 32, I want to see a good RAS score -- good combine

Not many sub 32 inch killer pass rushers in recent years who aren't really good athletes.

If his arms are lets say 31 and tests meh as an athlete, it doesn't feel like a top 10 pick to me. Conversely if he surprises and tests 32 or above or tests really well athletically he will easily go top 10.

 

[prodigy]

He had more targets, receptions and yards than Kittle in the same number of games. He had a 1,342 yard season. Terry has come nowhere close to that

straight statistics, sure. but it's 1 year and I'm not going to throw out QB, surrounding weapons, and better coaching staff. 49ers are fine without him because he is not as integral to their offensive system. jauan jennings and Kendrick bourne are/were able to replace him. would I scoff at signing aiyuk on a discount? again, no. I just don't hold him at the type of high regard some do. difference in opinions. if people had issues with terry's "diva-ness" and injury problems...wait till you get a load of aiyuk and his gf. I have MASSIVE issues with George Pickens too,..but he's multiple levels better than aiyuk.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

His pressure numbers are excellent. Production numbers weren't my central point, I flat out said its coming on. It's his size-height. But to be more specific,

A. Want to see 32 inches arm length. That's on the smallish size but its not terrible.
B. If they are sub 32, I want to see a good RAS score -- good combine

Not many sub 32 inch killer pass rushers in recent years who aren't really good athletes.

If his arms are lets say 31 and tests meh as an athlete, it doesn't feel like a top 10 pick to me. Conversely if he surprises and tests 32 or above or tests really well athletically he will easily go top 10.

You are pretty generous with your arm length thresholds.

I'd say I'd want to add an inch to all of yours. Needs to be 33"+ minimum to be considered a somewhat normal-ish Edge prospect. Desired Edge length is 34"+, and to be a blue chip Edge you really need to check all the measurement boxes. Myles Garrett has 35.25" arm length. There are loads of successful Edge rushers in the 33"+ range, but those guys aren't getting drafted #1 overall. Aidan Hutchinson is a rare exception at 32.25", but he's also 6'7 275lbs and had a 3-cone of 6.73 seconds (that showed up routinely on tape). That 3-cone is something Bain could only ever dream of.

In general the successful Edge guys who are all 32"+ arm length are a small guys with plus explosion, bend, and change of direction. Ones that can get slippery, drop levels, and duck a shoulder to get around a blocker.

Sub 32" arm length, while being shorter than average, his RAS would have to be flirting with 10. If his hands come in at sub 9" too, that's a kiss of death. I don't think there's been a single successful 1st round Edge rusher with hands sub-9".

 

[skinsinparadise]

You are pretty generous with your arm length thresholds.

I'd say I'd want to add an inch to all of yours. Needs to be 33"+ minimum to be considered a somewhat normal-ish Edge prospect. Desired Edge length is 34"+, and to be a blue chip Edge you really need to check all the measurement boxes. Myles Garrett has 35.25" arm length. There are loads of successful Edge rushers in the 33"+ range, but those guys aren't getting drafted #1 overall. Aidan Hutchinson is a rare exception at 32.25", but he's also 6'7 275lbs and had a 3-cone of 6.73 seconds (that showed up routinely on tape). That 3-cone is something Bain could only ever dream of.

In general the successful Edge guys who are all 32"+ arm length are a small guys with plus explosion, bend, and change of direction. Ones that can get slippery, drop levels, and duck a shoulder to get around a blocker.

Sub 32" arm length, while being shorter than average, his RAS would have to be flirting with 10. If his hands come in at sub 9" too, that's a kiss of death. I don't think there's been a single successful 1st round Edge rusher with hands sub-9".

Parsons at 31 and change but he's a freak athlete. Hendrickson at 32.

So yeah i am being generous to an extent but my point is I have limits with Bain. I need to see at least minimal arm length or very good athleticsm - and he's a wild card on both points so the combine will be big with me as to him.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Parsons at 31 and change but he's a freak athlete. Hendrickson at 32.

So yeah i am being generous to an extent but my point is I have limits with Bain. I need to see at least minimal arm length or very good athleticsm - and he's a wild card on both points so the combine will be big with me as to him.

The thing about Parsons is he also as the opposite extreme with 11" hands. The success rate of Edge rushers drafted in rounds 1 & 2 with hand size of at least 11" is surprisingly large. They almost always become at least solid starters. Trent Murphy is an example as the floor. The lone bust recently is Lukas Van Ness in the 1st round.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Watched some of Denzel Boston. Could be a good mid-late Day 2 pick. Fantastic at tracking/adjusting to the ball in the air. Good against zones, good when the QB scrambles. But from what I saw, he struggles against Press and Press-Bail type physical coverages. His release off the line is a little slow and not fooling much. He's not an 'X'. Seems best for Slot (like Rashee Rice) and maybe some 'Z'. Against off-coverages he can win some routes. I don't like how he can get pinned against the sideline. Quite a few times I thought "oh he won on a quick slant, that's awesome"...but then replay showed it was a pick play out of a bunch.

Really want to see him at the Senior Bowl to help solidify my views on him vs Man. If he struggles releasing/separating in the 1-on-1 WR/DB drills. Then he's more of a scheme fit for specific offenses. Could still be a good player, just not a universal plug-and-play into any offense.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Drafting an edge where they are projecting to pick is scary for me, the miss rate would be higher I would think that had they taken a linebacker, wide receiver or safety. They need to hit on this pick, obviously.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Watched some of Denzel Boston. Could be a good mid-late Day 2 pick. Fantastic at tracking/adjusting to the ball in the air. Good against zones, good when the QB scrambles. But from what I saw, he struggles against Press and Press-Bail type physical coverages. His release off the line is a little slow and not fooling much. He's not an 'X'. Seems best for Slot (like Rashee Rice) and maybe some 'Z'. Against off-coverages he can win some routes. I don't like how he can get pinned against the sideline. Quite a few times I thought "oh he won on a quick slant, that's awesome"...but then replay showed it was a pick play out of a bunch.

Really want to see him at the Senior Bowl to help solidify my views on him vs Man. If he struggles releasing/separating in the 1-on-1 WR/DB drills. Then he's more of a scheme fit for specific offenses. Could still be a good player, just not a universal plug-and-play into any offense.

Talked about him a little while back. I think he goes higher than that. Late first-early 2nd.

I am doing quick looks at these guys initially and I'll dive deeper later on.

But from what I recall. Nice size - catch radius-contested catches-great hands, doesn't drop passes, nice red zone threat. Sort of Drake London type. London was a contested catch fiend-physical player in college and that translated to the NFL. London wasn't a big time seperator, I remember saying he's like a basketball player, makes plays with dudes draped on him. I recall that turned off some people on the ES draft thread but not me because he was so good at it. Boston to my eyes isn't quite Drake London on that front but not a mile off either.

He played a lot of X when I watched him, don't recall issues with his releases but I didn't pay a lot of attention to that. His drawbacks to me are seperation skills and YAC. He has really long legs so clunky when on the move. But his hands are so good, catch radius is so good, and is so physical at the catch point that I think he's going to be a good one. Looks like a good ruin blocker from what I saw.

I can see your point at X though even though that's where he played a lot in college in that he's not quick off the ball. Long legged guys like him often need a little space to build momentum. But, he's such a physical guy that I think he can work his way to beating press.

 

[RedWolf]

We need a sure fire blue chip pick in round one, even if we trade back. I don't care what position it is

 

[philibusters]

Arm length is definitely important for Bain — especially for what Washington will ask him to do early. It’s not just a pass-rush thing; length is huge for setting the edge and maintaining outside leverage in the run game. Having a longer reach lets him get hands on the tackle first, lock out, and avoid getting swallowed by bigger OT’s.

As a pass rusher, his two main styles are speed-to-power on the outside shoulder and technician work in tight quarters. Both benefit from length. Speed-to-power isn’t as dependent on long arms as a pure bull rush, but it still helps a ton when you’re trying to stab the tackle, create separation, and keep him from getting inside your chest. And as a technician where you operating in close quarters, timing, placement, and leverage matter more than raw length, it still helps him maintain distance so he can work his chops, swipes, and inside counters instead of getting hugged by bigger linemen.

So no — Bain doesn’t have to be a 34-inch guy to win. But good arm length definitely boosts his ceiling.

 

[method man]

straight statistics, sure. but it's 1 year and I'm not going to throw out QB, surrounding weapons, and better coaching staff. 49ers are fine without him because he is not as integral to their offensive system. jauan jennings and Kendrick bourne are/were able to replace him. would I scoff at signing aiyuk on a discount? again, no. I just don't hold him at the type of high regard some do. difference in opinions. if people had issues with terry's "diva-ness" and injury problems...wait till you get a load of aiyuk and his gf. I have MASSIVE issues with George Pickens too,..but he's multiple levels better than aiyuk.

Jennings and Bourne have not replaced him. They were the #1 offensive DVOA team by a wide margin in 2023 and that propelled them to the Super Bowl. They are still #7 this year but a shell of what they used to be. The guy finished a Second Team All Pro in 2023 - one of 7 guys

 

[method man]

A thought here is, if they do let Deebo go, you could, in theory, add both Aiyuk and Tyson/Tate. In 2023, while he played mainly on the outside, he also played some slot and was highly productive in that role. If there is worry about how explosive he is after the knee surgery, the slot would allow him to stay highly productive. He is known for excellent route running and he'd have a greater variety of releases and routes to use in his game.

 

[Riggo44]

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Stopped my Athletic subscription so won't know how his shakes out. Hopefully that's several QB's going in the Top 10...

 

[DWinzit]

Stopped my Athletic subscription so won't know how his shakes out. Hopefully that's several QB's going in the Top 10...

That's definitely the best case scenario regardless of what pick we end up with

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Drafting an edge where they are projecting to pick is scary for me, the miss rate would be higher I would think that had they taken a linebacker, wide receiver or safety. They need to hit on this pick, obviously.

After making this post, and reading it today, I'd like to talk about linebacker today. Other than noting Wagner entering the wash cycle and Luvu entering witness protection we rarely discuss just what a weakness this position is. Magee is obviously a maybe and that's just one spot. Imagine what a true stud LB against the run and the pass would do for this defense.

 

[bowhunter]

After making this post, and reading it today, I'd like to talk about linebacker today. Other than noting Wagner entering the wash cycle and Luvu entering witness protection we rarely discuss just what a weakness this position is. Magee is obviously a maybe and that's just one spot. Imagine what a true stud LB against the run and the pass would do for this defense.

That would be fun! I remember when a stud LB was the core of a Defense, but now that position seems to get less attention. Your post triggered my mind back to draft buzz ILBs over the past few years and I couldn't think of many. Maybe Patrick Queen or Dean? Lloyd. Heck I even had to do a little googling. Baltimore drafted Queen in the 1st round but opted not to extend him, and it looks like his time in Pittsburgh is only so-so. So this begs the question of when and where we should make that investment. LB was my position as a youth, so I have a weakness for the spot, but I'm not sure I would spend a 1st round pick on one either.