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Results are in: RG3 and Luck Rookie Numbers



Super Bowl MVP
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BGO Ownership Group
Apr 11, 2009
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Montclair, VA

Virginia Tech

Okay not really. But still....this ****'s fun. :)

NFL projection models love RG3, Luck, less enthusiastic about Tannehill

For all the scouting, interviews, workouts, analysis and, well, praying, the NFL Draft is still as much art as science. In the last 20 years, the list of first-round busts is as long and varied as the list of late-round afterthoughts and undrafted players who went on to have great careers. But every team is looking for an edge and following baseball's lead, statistical analysis is becoming a bigger part of the NFL scouting process.

(The most glaring problem: baseball is a series of discrete, easily quantifiable actions; football, meanwhile, is one interrelated play after another. While a pitcher strking out a batter is relatively straightforward, a running back gaining four yards is dependent on the skill of his offensive line, the skill of the defensive line, the offensive play call, the defensive play call, etc…)

To mitigate some of this uncertainty, statistics has taken on a more prominent role in both the game-planning and evaluation process. Find those players most likely to succeed, get them at a reasonable price, and build a roster. It's the holy grail of scouting and analysis and as it stands, football is light years behind baseball in that regard. But sites like PredictionMachine.com are doing their part to add to the research.

Using a complex mode, PredictionMachine.com has released their 2012 NFL Quarterback Pass Projections. The model was applied to last year's draft and, according to the site, "these projections have highlighted the likely success of Andy Dalton (#1 overall last year), A.J. Green, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, J.J. Watt, and DeMarco Murray … while suggesting that Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Delone Carter and Jonathan Baldwin … were overrated."

So what does the model say about the 2012 draft class?

Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck are ranked first and second, which isn't surprising (that comes momentarily), but the model also provides estimates of the numbers each player put up as rookies:

RG3: 305.3 of 510.8 (59.8 percent) for 3,951.5 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 25.2 TDs, 18.1 INTs;

Luck: 306.5 of 510.8 (60 percent) for 3,785.1 passing yards (7.4 YPA), 26.9 TDs, 20.7 INTs.

Now things get interesting: Ryan Tannehlill, widely considered the third-best quarterback in the draft, ranks ninth in the QB pass projections behind Brandon Weeden, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Kellen Moore, Nick Foles and Case Keenum...



If you read the description they used an 'Average NFL team' for all the players, since it's still up in the air which team everyone's going to (well, at least it's not 'official')

I'm curious how those numbers change with Luck specifically measured as being on the Colts, RG3 on the skins, and then the other way around.


The Owner's Favorite
Jun 30, 2009
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Raleigh, NC


Interesting, Om. I bookmarked the Prediction Machine site and after the 2012 season I'll run the numbers through some data mining software and see just how well their modeling does.

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