Redskins Recon: The Offseason-The First Five Teams In The Draft

[servumtuum]

The top five draft picks. The teams that pick ahead of the Redskins. The place where Luck, Griffin, Kalil, and Blackmon-the "super-hot" properties...

More...

 

[fansince62]

nice work there young man.

very interesting watching our discussions replayed elsewhere!!!!

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Great job - looking forward to the second part.

The reaction of Browns fans (or lack thereof) is really interesting. It all but confirms that they know Luck and RG3 are not targets. Flynn is going to Cleveland and they seem to be ok with it.

 

[Ax]

Nice work serv.

It's very comforting knowing that fans, of every team in the league, are not in charge of things.

With each passing day I'm more of the mind to sit tight, see if the player we covet most is there at #6, listen to any good/great offers from teams wanting to trade up, and then select either BPA, or BTA.

Which is what smart GM's, in our shoes, will do 99.9% of the time.

 

[servumtuum]

Nice work serv.

It's very comforting knowing that fans, of every team in the league, are not in charge of things.

With each passing day I'm more of the mind to sit tight, see if the player we covet most is there at #6, listen to any good/great offers from teams wanting to trade up, and then select either BPA, or BTA.

Which is what smart GM's, in our shoes, will do 99.9% of the time.

I agree, Ax. I was surprised to find, for example, so many Colts fans that would be interested in a trade-down from #1 to fill other needs the Colts have but who knows what Irsay or the Colts new GM Ryan Grigson actually have in mind? The next three months are just going to continue to get more interesting as time goes on.

 

[Goaldeje]

That's not that surprising, Serv. fans tend to be more short term in their thinking anyway. Combine that with the miserable season the Colts just had, and I am not surprised their fans want to return to their successful ways they are used to.

 

[servumtuum]

Maybe, G., if looked at from the perspective of Peyton returning healthy and able to play as some of the fans seem to believe. Others seemed to take a perspective that leaned toward using the #1 pick as bait to get extra picks to do a re-build of a team that showed just how many oles it needs to fill this past season.

Furthermore if, by chance, that's the sort of thing that their new GM Grigson has in mind just imagine the possibilities. If you think the draft-pick trading that's liable to develop over RG3 is going to be hectic imagine if Grigson were to announce that the #1 slot-along with Luck-were available to the highest bidder.

The draft would turn into a chaotic feeding frenzy of teams scrambling to put together a picks+player(s) combo that would suit Indy-who would then be liable to grab a draft pick haul that would make the Atlanta/Cleveland deal least year look like penny ante stuff.

 

[Goaldeje]

That's what I'm saying, Serv. If the fans think Peyton is going to be able to step back to his All-Pro ways right away, I can understand the thought process to drop down, pick up as many 1st and 2nds as possible to rebuild on the fly and surround Peyton with young talent to make a run.

So much depends on one man's health. To some degree, anyway.

 

[fansince62]

no doubt that's how Colts fans looked at things in 1998 when they had just finished 3-13 and had the first pick. pass on Manning....trade down for more picks!!!!

 

[Burgundy Burner]

no doubt that's how Colts fans looked at things in 1998 when they had just finished 3-13 and had the first pick. pass on Manning....trade down for more picks!!!!

A mod over at the other place had a good bump of his own thread from November, 2005 and presented some good thoughts on the subject. Here is what he posted...

"It's the QB, Stupid"

Fact is, if you still think building a modern day NFL winner starts with Oline, defense, coaching, or anything you learned from watching football in the 1980s, you're behind the times. Time for you to admit you're wrong if you haven't done so already. (I will freely admit these matter greatly in college and HS. Just not the pros.)

It's the QB dumb***.

"The two worst defenses in the NFL are the respective #1 seeds in their conferences.
The league leader in rushing yards is watching the playofffs on TV.
The league's best offensive line (sacks allowed) is watching the playoffs on TV.
The leagues top 5 regular season passers all made it to the playoffs and are still alive.
The truth has been revealed about Bellicheck. He's a tremendously average defensive coach with the greatest QB of all time on his roster. Pay attention folks, some of us have been saying this about BB since 2005".

Then he quoted himself from the 2005 post...

***Originally Posted by that mod***

"Does the QB make the line, or does the line make the QB?

A chicken and egg debate for sure. The QB's release, feet, and awareness factor into 50% of pressures.

I think a good QB makes an average Oline look stellar. But not vice versa".

He finishes with...

"Who is this guy from 2005 that was so wise in the ways of the NFL? And who are these idiots that continue to doubt this?

Aaron Rodgers pick up the white courtesy phone".

No need to add any other words to what was written.

 

[Elephant]

I don't think anyone is arguing against the need for a franchise QB. The argument is how to acquire a franchise QB. None of the teams he mentioned that have terrible defenses with all world QB's who are in the playoffs gave up 2 first round draft choices and more to acquire one.

New Orleans acquired Drew Brees in Free Agency

Green Bay acquired Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick in the 1st round

New England acquired Tom Brady in the 6th round of the draft.

How has giving up numerous draft picks worked out for the Jets and Sanchez? Maybe the Giants are an example, but they did win their Super Bowl with the defense!

 

[romberjo]

This may well be playing it too cute, but it just occurred to me that there's an argument for there being no need to trade up to #2. Assume Luck is gone at #1. Both we and the Browns know that the Rams aren't going to take RG3 at #2 (given Bradford, and the Rams' likely interest in Blackmon or Kalil). It's therefore rational for both us and the Browns (and, for that matter, the Seahawks or Dolphins) to not make any offers to trade into the #2 spot--even if it means we get into a bidding war for the #3 spot, the winning team for that spot would almost undoubtedly pay less than if it had traded up to #2.

And the move from #6 to #3 is a lot more manageable than the move up to #2 (the marginal difference b/w #3 and #2 is, roughly, pretty close to a 2d round pick, or the following year's 1st).

 

[Yusuf06]

That sort of makes sense Rom, except that it's not about the Lambs. The team that waits and then tries to trade up to #3 is running the risk that someone else will trade up to #2. Were we to do that one could just as easily argue that we should just stand pat and see if RG3 or Luck falls to us. I could be wrong but I just don't see whichever QB isn't taken first falling past #3. It is the NFL draft so you never can tell though.

 

[Ax]

This may well be playing it too cute, but it just occurred to me that there's an argument for there being no need to trade up to #2. Assume Luck is gone at #1. Both we and the Browns know that the Rams aren't going to take RG3 at #2 (given Bradford, and the Rams' likely interest in Blackmon or Kalil). It's therefore rational for both us and the Browns (and, for that matter, the Seahawks or Dolphins) to not make any offers to trade into the #2 spot--even if it means we get into a bidding war for the #3 spot, the winning team for that spot would almost undoubtedly pay less than if it had traded up to #2.

Of course, the Rams could always draft RGIII, and immediately put him up for sale, so they don't lose out on the extra picks, that will surely come.

Fischer is no fool.

 

[servumtuum]

Of course, the Rams could always draft RGIII, and immediately put him up for sale, so they don't lose out on the extra picks, that will surely come.

Fischer is no fool.

I, for one, would be very interested in what Fischer thinks of Sam Bradford.

 

[Neophyte]

Read an article today that suggested the Rams should take RGIII and keep Bradford, then pit the two of them against each other in training camp next year and trade the loser in the spring of '13 for draft picks.

 

[romberjo]

Read an article today that suggested the Rams should take RGIII and keep Bradford, then pit the two of them against each other in training camp next year and trade the loser in the spring of '13 for draft picks.

Interesting, but I doubt it would be worth it to them. First, they can obviously really use some other talented player(s) (either at #2, or after trading down). Second, the value of either Bradford or RG3 is probably higher now than after he lost the competition for starting qb next year. Plus, by overstocking on blue chip QB's that can't both play (notably more wasteful than Cooley + Davis), the Rams would lose a year's worth of play from the equivalent of the #1-2 pick (both in terms of actual playing time, and in terms of length of contract they could trade in '13), and conventional wisdom suggests the value of a pick a year later is one round lower. (I actually think that's far too much of a discount, but that seems to be the market value.)

 

[Neophyte]

The author cited Jimmy Johnson taking Aikman #1 in the regular draft followed by taking Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft which cost them their #1 the next year (would have been #1 over all, if you are wondering).

A little over a year later, 4 games into the '90 season, Johnson traded Walsh to the Saints for 3 draft picks (a 1, 2 and 3) but only after determining that Aikman was the better of the two QBs for the Dallas offense.

Doesn't sound like a losing proposition to me. I think folks forget this brilliant move as it is over shadowed by Johnson fleecing the Vikes in the Walker deal.

 

[romberjo]

I think this is the article you're referring to, which is an interesting take: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/12/daly-where-will-qb-carousel-stop-for-the-redskins/

See this for a different take: http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2005/07/07/supplemental-blunders-how-jimmy-almost-blew-a-dynasty/

(And it seems to me Johnson had a bad case of Spurrier Syndrome when it came to wanting Walsh , his winning QB in college, rather than being a thought-through move.)