hypothetical

[fansince62]

so...let's imagine the players' lawyers get their way and the draft is thrown away, draft is eliminated, free agency is whatever the market will bear. These are some of the objectives of one of the key players' lawyers....guy named Kessler.

well....the Skins would likely prosper in this environment. but my guess is the league would suffer a lot......smaller market teams might fail......just a few teams would dominate year in and year out......team identities would suffer as the player merry-go-round accelerated....

would you prefer an ascendent Skins even though the overall quality of the league and the NFL experience might suffer?

 

[Goaldeje]

I think your presupposition is incorrect. Yes, some smaller market teams would probably fail, but to assume we would succeed is not necessarily true. Look at the Yankees from 2001-2010. Every year with the highest payroll, but only won it all once.

Having said that, I think one of the things that makes the NFL great is the revenue sharing, and I would be disappointed to see it go away. I think from year to year you would have some small market teams bubble up (ala the A's and the Marlins in the 90's, or the Marlins, Devil Rays and Brewers in the 00's), but by and large baseball is fairly boring during the regular season and I would anticipate something similar happening in the NFL, which would be a shame.

 

[fansince62]

I think your presupposition is incorrect. Yes, some smaller market teams would probably fail, but to assume we would succeed is not necessarily true. Look at the Yankees from 2001-2010. Every year with the highest payroll, but only won it all once.

Having said that, I think one of the things that makes the NFL great is the revenue sharing, and I would be disappointed to see it go away. I think from year to year you would have some small market teams bubble up (ala the A's and the Marlins in the 90's, or the Marlins, Devil Rays and Brewers in the 00's), but by and large baseball is fairly boring during the regular season and I would anticipate something similar happening in the NFL, which would be a shame.

you make good points. agree on the Yankees....though they were able to buy dominance for many years also.

so...on a higher plane...do you think eliminating the draft and creating an unlimited FA market would be better/worse for the league? for the fan experience? for the Skins?

 

[Goaldeje]

you make good points. agree on the Yankees....though they were able to buy dominance for many years also.

so...on a higher plane...do you think eliminating the draft and creating an unlimited FA market would be better/worse for the league? for the fan experience? for the Skins?

Interestingly, the Yankee's dominance in the late 90's was largely due to their homegrown talent, NOT the result of big free agent splashes. In the 00's, they went for the big free agents to disappointing results.

For the Skins, the scenario you describe would enable us to win the offseason every year. But I still don't see us winning consistently. Seems to me there is no cap for the scouting department, yet that is the one area where Snyder seems to skimp, if memory serves. Until we get our scouting department in order, I don't see how it would benefit us but so much.

Your post in the other thread is cogent. We can not expect success until our system is identified and implemented and we stick to it; a souped up scouting department that could identify the correct players for that system would enable us to win consistently. Until that happens, I really don't see the team winning consistently no matter what the rules the NFL has in place.

 

[servumtuum]

so...on a higher plane...do you think eliminating the draft and creating an unlimited FA market would be better/worse for the league? for the fan experience? for the Skins?

Interestingly framed question,fansince, particularly since the "better/worse" classification may involve inverse relationships dependent upon which variable(s) you're trying to optimize. Actually, I'd include the players as a fourth variable since their input was included as a causative factor in your hypothesized scenario and the result of any attempt to estimate outcomes would necessarily include effects on them as well. I'll have to think about this one for awhile.

 

[Goaldeje]

Sigh. Serv is much more smarter than I am.

 

[servumtuum]

Sigh. Serv is much more smarter than I am.

No I'm not, G.

I've learned things from you I would never have thought of on my own.

My experience has given me a lot of practice in being analytical and almost mathematical in my approach to things but I've read your writings here in Cake or Death and have been flabbergasted and shake my head in wonder thinking "How does he come up with this stuff-it marvelous."

Smarter than you-or anybody else for that matter? Maybe in a few things but definitely a total novice in things you are amazingly adept at.

 

[fansince62]

No I'm not, G.

I've learned things from you I would never have thought of on my own.

My experience has given me a lot of practice in being analytical and almost mathematical in my approach to things but I've read your writings here in Cake or Death and have been flabbergasted and shake my head in wonder thinking "How does he come up with this stuff-it marvelous."

Smarter than you-or anybody else for that matter? Maybe in a few things but definitely a total novice in things you are amazingly adept at.

ok...are you guys gonna check out a room...or what?

just kidding! as long as we stay away from politics (finger pointing at me) we all hold our own. at the very least...the football side of BGO can and should live up to the highest expectations of our little community - that, at least, is one of my self-imposed obligations for this up-coming season.

 

[servumtuum]

Fansince, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the question you raised-that of the effects of no draft and unlimited FA on the Skins, the fans..etc. You may be able to help provide me with a perspective or two I may not have thought of as I try to narrow down the apparent myriad of directions this kind of thing could go.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

There's still one factor or question that dictates all variables in this scenario. How much are the fans willing to pay? There's still only 8 home games a year, only so much merchandise that people will buy and quite frankly the economy ceratinly has determined that some people no matter how big a fan forego these things in the sake of survival. The Redskins could in this scenario spend frivolously, buying themselves into a winning atmosphere. However, there are several other teams who are more adept at finding talent, one could argue 20 teams are better at scouting talent than we are. While the Redskins could spend into oblivion the improvement could be marginal causing further fan disconnect resulting in business losses large enough to bring payroll back down. So in the end the answer I chose is the number 7.

 

[fansince62]

There's still one factor or question that dictates all variables in this scenario. How much are the fans willing to pay? There's still only 8 home games a year, only so much merchandise that people will buy and quite frankly the economy ceratinly has determined that some people no matter how big a fan forego these things in the sake of survival. The Redskins could in this scenario spend frivolously, buying themselves into a winning atmosphere. However, there are several other teams who are more adept at finding talent, one could argue 20 teams are better at scouting talent than we are. While the Redskins could spend into oblivion the improvement could be marginal causing further fan disconnect resulting in business losses large enough to bring payroll back down. So in the end the answer I chose is the number 7.

excellent points.

so I can infer that you don't view Mr Snyder's willingness to spend money on the Skins as a positive or distinguishing quality for him as an owner? you're spot on about fan disposable income. and that's the argument being made by some - that eliminating the draft, unfettered FA, etc., will jack up prices to a level that the game is unaffordable for many. complicated financing question so I don't know the answer. too many are assumng that the contracting process will remain the same while players gain the advantage to negotiate with any team unfettered by a cap. were I an owner......I'd hire the best accountants, lawyers, CFOs, etc., and completely rewicker contracts. I'd place a lot more emphasis on payouts scaled to performance thesholds; I'd cut non-peformers a lot faster and simply hire someone else away from other teams; I'd implement behavioral standards in every contract; I'd eliminate league wide benefits plans (there's no Union..right?) and let each local market determine what set of enticements (e.g., long-term medical care)should be in that goody bag; I'd eliminate off-season and structure contracts with set numbers of annual sick and vacation time proximate to those in government or private industry; I'd price out all the funded benefits (e.g., meals) and include that assessment in the value of each contract; I'd start requiring every player to sit through various human factors/sensitivity training sessions every year........

new market....new world. hard to tell where this will go and how inventive both sides can become.