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Homer Mcfanboy: campbell haters beware

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photo by Brian Murphy This isn’t breaking news or anything, but Washington Redskins fans love a quarterback controversy. Always have. Always will. If you’ve been in the D.C. area for football season, you know this. That being said, if you’re convinced that Jason Campbell was the only reason the Redskins fell apart last season, you’re a sad cliché. We’ve [...]

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Neophyte

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There are some very telling numbers in there. Thanks Murf!

Here is hoping that Kelly, Thomas and Davis help reduce the number of drops...
 

Ax

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Excellent piece. But I doubt it will convince, some, that they didn't see, what they thought they saw.

Give'm hell Jason.
 

Sarge

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I'm the first one in line to hope CAmpbell has a breakout season and is the starter for the next ten years.

I'm just not convinced
 

Om

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All true, murf. As you know I've been a JC guy all along. No one has been on Jason's side as long or as loud as me. I have the links to prove it.

Thing is, having watched every play of his career--many of them multiple times, more than a few frame by frame (I have no life)--I also know the numbers don't tell the story.

Jason's numbers have never been the problem ... the way I see it, the problem has always been what he does and does not do in the biggest moments, with drives, games and seasons on the line.

And it's not always been what he has done, but what he hasn't; looking off safeties consistently, pulling the trigger on that tight seam pass and giving his receiver a chance to make a play on a key 3rd down, settling instead for the outlet that comes up 2 yards short ... visibly and forcefully rallying the troops both on the bench or on the field at the key moments of a game ...

And there's the stuff he does sometimes do that doesn't show up in the numbers ... losing track of time in the pocket once or twice a game and taking unnecessary sacks, ending drives, or even just having to throw it away to avoid the sack when a little more awareness might have yielded a running lane or hot receiver. Sometimes exposing the ball while doing so, leading to crucial, killer turnovers. Far too often being either a beat slow or a beat rushed in getting the ball out.

I understand that all the transition around him has played a factor. It's not about that. It's about watching the man play now over 4 seasons and forming an overall impression of his pace, demeanor, skill set, tendencies ... and (hoping I'm wrong) seemingly his capacity.

I just don't think the numbers, Football Outsiders or anyone's, tell Jason Campbell's story. The numbers have no category for "it," which to me is the one thing he's been missing.

Whether or not he finds "it" in 2009 will determine whether Washington is a legitimate contender to make noise in the playoffs or just another one of probably a dozen teams who will be 'in the mix' all year, maybe even grab a wildcard if things bounce right, but never really be a threat to the big boys.
 
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Elephant

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Call me a cynic but those numbers don't jibe w/ me.

The first 4 assertions were ambiguous.

Dropped passes: 1, 2, & 3

They talk about dropped passes, but are they flat out drops? Which we did see Santana make! Or were they balls that probably should have been caught but were not very well thrown? Too low for CP on the run for a short screen? A step behind Santana on a fly pattern? Leading the receiver over the middle? Which Jason did much more often.

Passes defended: 4

Does this include the unwise decisions JC made when throwing into triple coverage? Which we saw him do often; late in games when he was trying to drive us down the field for a late come from behind victory or simply when he felt too much pressure.

I will repeat this! I want Jason Campbell to have a Pro-Bowl year! I want him to lead us deep into playoffs!

But I just don't see it and I hate that I am saying that. It means I feel we are in for a long season since our next best bet is Todd Collins who probably could not go for more than half a season. I wish I did not have this feeling.

Please! Please! Please! Prove me wrong Jason Campbell!
 

Hog Fever

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The offensive line simply must play better. Time in the pocket, or lack thereof, will make an average QB great or make a good one look horrible. Look no further than to our friends that play in the swamps of New Jersey. Do you honestly think Eli Manning is a great QB? I don't. He is a guy who benefits from a great O-line and a solid running game. I hate the Giants but I think if we would have had their O-line for the past two seasons JC would already have his big contract.
 

Pravda

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The offensive line simply must play better. Time in the pocket, or lack thereof, will make an average QB great or make a good one look horrible. Look no further than to our friends that play in the swamps of New Jersey. Do you honestly think Eli Manning is a great QB? I don't. He is a guy who benefits from a great O-line and a solid running game. I hate the Giants but I think if we would have had their O-line for the past two seasons JC would already have his big contract.
Gotta agree strongly with this--

Not to be a broken record, but it still comes back to the offensive line--

If a metric were available, I wonder what statistical analysis would determine when looking at variables comparing the success of a QB when there was a "good" offensive line in place and factoring in all of the other variables like WRs, RBs, conference, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that the statistical analysis would show that many of the latter set of variable are somewhat important to success (in our case, a potentially late blooming Kelly or Thomas) but pale in comparison to the importance of the offensive line--i.e., "good" receivers and "good" RBs are somewhat correlated with "good" or "successful" quarterbacks, but "good" offensive lines are far more correlated with "good" or "succesful" quarterbacks.

If I had the statistics and a quant program, I'd run the regressional analysis myself. :)
 

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