Grossman Trendline Worrisome Coming Out of Bye

[Bulldog]

Grossman's history is that he is inconsistent. But after a strong preseason and opener against the Giants, Rex has actually been a bit less effective than I would have thought given that two of the three teams, Arizona and St.Louis, are among the worst teams in the league and regularly give up 30 plus points to other clubs.

So, while the fumbles and INTs have been there the corresponding big plays have been few and far between.

From 28 points against the Giants (7 from Kerrigan on D), Washington has produced 22, 16 and 17 points.

Well below the league average after a fast first month.

Again taking out the Giants game, the Redskins despite being 3-1 are back to the 17-18 point offense they have been for the past few years.

If you include the special teams miscues which has cost 3 points in 3 of the first 4 games, that's another 9 points lost.

The botched FG in Dallas likely cost the team the game as 3rd and 21 would not have been as critical with a touchdown needed for Dallas to win.

Overall, there are a lot of positives, on defense especially, but also with younger developing players like Young, Davis and Williams on offense.

But the same bad habits of not being able to score points on bad defenses and giving up more than you get on special teams seem to still be with us.

And at least against the Rams, perhaps it was not the second interception that has me as down on Rex as his 48 percent completion rate and lack of corresponding big play or two to offset some of the mistakes.
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[Om]

Yep.

Shanahan faces a classic dilemma...you don't mess with 3-1 by yanking your starting QB...while on the other hand you can't let your offense flounder and be unable to produce more than 2 TD's a game.

Had we lost to the Rams I'd not have been one bit surprised to see Beck start against the Eagles. As it stands, if Rex continues what appears to be a downslide, and we drop the Eagles game due to another substandard day in the passing game/red zone, I'm not so sure Mike won't pull the trigger.

With the Defense playing as well as it is, he might be hard pressed not to try to jump start the offense with an eye toward maybe competing for a playoff spot down the stretch...at which point, as we all know, anything can happen.

 

[Om]

I think a big part of it is mental, Mike. On Rex's part and Kyle's. The playcalling down in the red zone has been night and day from between the 20's....I think Kyle gets tight and conservative, and that it may be due to concern over Bad Rex showing up down there, Kyle's own nature, or maybe some combo of both.

One thing I do know is we aren't very sharp, creative or aggressive down there, and that's going to have to change if the team's going to continue it's overall growth.

 

[Neophyte]

While I agree with the premise here, one could also argue that Rex and offense have earned 9 more points than were put on the board which raises the average number of points by the offense to just over 21 points a game (this does NOT include Kerrigan's TD against the Giants) which IS better than any Skins offense in a number of years.

Given the way the defense is playing, 21 a game should have the Skins totally in nearly every game they play this year except maybe the matchup with the Pats who are just scary on the offensive side of the ball (of course, with that defense they have to be).

 

[SkinsOrlando]

Reminded me of the zorn days on that play mike
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[Lanky Livingston]

You can also point the finger at his receivers a bit also - Hightower dropping a wide-open 3rd down pass that would have extended a drive, Moss pulling his once-or-twice a season "tip the ball directly to the defender" act - its not ALL on Rex. The playcalling has been suspect at times also, the play Mike mentioned being probably the worst we've seen since "the swinging gate."

 

[Om]

I don't think anyone's putting it all on Grossman...but I do wonder if anyone here hasn't had the same "come on, Rex" feeling a few times watching the last couple of games. He doesn't consistently look like the same guy we saw earlier in the year to me. Part of that surely is defenses taking away his comfort zone over the intermediate middle as much as they can. The rest? Too many factors to list.

If he bounces back strong against Philly I'll be the first to say so---I'm just concerned with the direction it looks to me he's heading.

Neo, I like the thought on the missed FG's, but another way to look at this is every team misses field goals (except Dallas, against us, of course). Haven't ever done it, but my guess is if we went through every box score of every game this year, we'd find that on average teams miss at least one "makable" FG a game. Be an interesting exercise anyway.

 

[Sarge]

Beck by game 7

 

[ntotoro]

Rex worries me, period, bye or not. We've been won the Rams and Cardinals games despite him, not because of him. The team is getting the bounces now, but there will come stretches when this doesn't happen and everything will again fall to the Defense.

The league average in points-scored is higher than the last few years and we're just excited to see more than 16 per game. Don't judge our Offense against years past, but against other current Offenses and what they're doing. Rex will be benched by game 8, maybe earlier if we get a losing streak.

Nick

 

[fansince62]

Grossman's history is that he is inconsistent. But after a strong preseason and opener against the Giants, Rex has actually been a bit less effective than I would have thought given that two of the three teams, Arizona and St.Louis, are among the worst teams in the league and regularly give up 30 plus points to other clubs.

So, while the fumbles and INTs have been there the corresponding big plays have been few and far between.

From 28 points against the Giants (7 from Kerrigan on D), Washington has produced 22, 16 and 17 points.

Well below the league average after a fast first month.

Again taking out the Giants game, the Redskins despite being 3-1 are back to the 17-18 point offense they have been for the past few years.

If you include the special teams miscues which has cost 3 points in 3 of the first 4 games, that's another 9 points lost.

The botched FG in Dallas likely cost the team the game as 3rd and 21 would not have been as critical with a touchdown needed for Dallas to win.

Overall, there are a lot of positives, on defense especially, but also with younger developing players like Young, Davis and Williams on offense.

But the same bad habits of not being able to score points on bad defenses and giving up more than you get on special teams seem to still be with us.

And at least against the Rams, perhaps it was not the second interception that has me as down on Rex as his 48 percent completion rate and lack of corresponding big play or two to offset some of the mistakes.
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BT....question....and I'm working off impressions here not data....it's been my impression that with a couple exceptions wrt Fred Davis....we aren't seeing a lot of pass receptions with chunks of ACYs. Now..this could be more to receivers not running precise routes....just an observation beyond the obvious lack of a deep passing game.

 

[fansince62]

I haven't seen anything from Rex this season that makes me sit up, cuss and throw something at the TV. He's not prone to screw-ups like so many of the QBs we have suffered through these last many years. my problem is that I just think he is playing inside a box....his physical/athletic limits scope down what this offense can do. that's what I find frustrating. I don't know if Beck would be any better or not.

 

[Bulldog]

It is marked, though, how confident Rex was coming out of preseason - and that feeling extended through the Giants game to part of the Cardinals game.

But against Dallas and then the Rams Grossman has not looked liked he did before in making some plays while giving up some negative ones as well.

If Rex is back after only 4 weeks (and 3 of them wins!) to the quarterback he was in Chicago in 2007 we are in a lot of trouble.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

It is marked, though, how confident Rex was coming out of preseason - and that feeling extended through the Giants game to part of the Cardinals game.

But against Dallas and then the Rams Grossman has not looked liked he did before in making some plays while giving up some negative ones as well.

If Rex is back after only 4 weeks (and 3 of them wins!) to the quarterback he was in Chicago in 2007 we are in a lot of trouble.

I wonder, what if Kyle only gave Grossman part of the offense to run, and is slowly installing more and more of it? Maybe he's just not comfortable with what they've been running, and Kyle needs to pare it down a bit.

Sounds a little far-fetched to me, seeing as how Rex has been in the offense for 3-4 years now, but it was just a thought I had. Maybe Rex doesn't have as firm a grip on this offense as everyone has led us to believe?

EDIT: Or maybe he just isn't that good at analyzing film, and other teams are able to confuse him easily? A guy like Brady or Manning can instantly diagnose what a D is trying to do 19 times out of 20; maybe for Rex its more like 11 or 12 times out of 20?

 

[Elephant]

I gotta add something that I haven't seen mentioned that is most frustrating to me. I can point to 2 passes at least that would have been TD's had Rex hit the receivers in stride, Fred Davis on a 40 or so yard game against the Giants and one in the Crds game to Austin or Armstrong, I cannot remember.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Rex does worry me but you can't say that and not include Kyle with it either.

He should know what Rex's strengths and weaknesses are and should gameplan accordingly but sometimes, it appears that Rex and Kyle never met.

One example that comes readily to mind from the Rams game: Having Rex roll left when it's all he can do to roll right to begin with. Really? C'mon Kyle.

The other thing bothering me, sure Rex is prone to a bad mistake but his OC has to help him out too and save him from himself.

Throwing a 3 yard pass in traffic on 3 and 1 when you have one rb averaging 4.5 yds a pop and another one averaging 7.5?

Or refusing to grind clock and yards with a back that's on fire to play Fun N Gun in the second halves of games when we have a lead?

So for all of Rex's foibles, we're seeing Kyle's too.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

I think that is fair criticism of Kyle - I think that he is so used to having Matt Schaub & Andre Johnson that he thinks its a lot easier to score points than it really is.

 

[Boone]

I agree with the general assessment. But Grossman is getting pressured a lot and it's not because he's an immobile unathletic white guy (although he may be), it's because our O-line hasnt' protected him very well at times. I can't see the WR's streaking downfield on TV, but I also have to think beyond Moss, he's not seeing our receivers open as often as we'd like to believe.

As I said, I agree we're not getting as much solid play from Grossman as we could. But he's not playing in a vacuum either. And I'll take 3 wins with Rex vs. Cam Newton breaking passing records while losing.

 

[GSF]

I believe that Rex will bounce back and have a good game against philly.

The bye couldn't have come a a better time for Rex. He's taken a lot of hits thanks to inconsistent protection. Armstrong going out really hurt him too since he is really the only receiver on the roster who can stretch the field.

I still believe Rex can be very successful with the Redskins but a few things need to happen:

1. The oline needs to form a better pocket for Rex to step up into. In the first half of the Pukes game, TW was handling Ware nicely and Rex made some very nice plays. As the game went on Ryan starting moving Ware around, protection brokedown and Rex struggled. The oline doesn't have to be dominant for Rex to do well, they just have to be a little more consistent.

2. KS has to be a smarter play caller at critical times and protect Rex from himself as 44 mentioned in his post. Rex is a gunslinger, or at least thinks he is, and is going to make a few throws he shouldn't.

3. Armstrong has to get healthy, and then catch the ball when thrown to him. This is more important than I think many realize. Rex and this offense will not succeed with a legit deep threat.

 

[fansince62]

I agree with the general assessment. But Grossman is getting pressured a lot and it's not because he's an immobile unathletic white guy (although he may be), it's because our O-line hasnt' protected him very well at times. I can't see the WR's streaking downfield on TV, but I also have to think beyond Moss, he's not seeing our receivers open as often as we'd like to believe.

As I said, I agree we're not getting as much solid play from Grossman as we could. But he's not playing in a vacuum either. And I'll take 3 wins with Rex vs. Cam Newton breaking passing records while losing.

he was sacked once in the Rams game. he's getting time. for most of these short passes the ball should be out of his hand in three seconds or less. other defenses have great players who are going to apply pressure. Rex is going to deal with it just like every other QB. he has time for the short passes. not clear to me whether he has the 5 seconds needed for a deep pass. not sure whether blocking, receiver routes/separation, rex vision/holding the ball too long is the problem.

in terms of sacks (8 sacks) this o-line is doing fine...right in the middle of the pack. QB hits (24 hits), on the other hand, it is in the top 10...not a good thing. let's assume sacks are all on the o-line. who has done the analysis to assess the high number of QB hits?

btw...I'd take Cam Newton over RG in a half a little lamb's heartbeat.

 

[Boone]

Sacks and 'getting time' aren't the same thing (and he was sacked 7 times combined in the opener and Dallas games). He's getting beat up a lot, like a lot of QBs - we're already seeing missed time from NFL QBs and even season-ending injuries because most O-lines are playing like crap (probably because 'gelling' for O-lines takes time, and there wasn't much of it before this season started).

Grossman has made some boneheaded throws and bad throws, like most QBs do - but not as many as you'd have us believe. And he's completing most of the short passes - he's not tearing it up, but he's close to 60% completion rate which isn't terrible. Since Rex shows little hesitation in throwing risky passes, I doubt our inability to go downfield has much to do with him 'holding onto it too long'. I suspect that most of the time our WRs aren't able to separate on the longer routes and/or there's not good enough protection to give those plays time to develop.

Bottom line - Grossman can play well enough for us to win with the defense we have, but he needs better protection. I think the coaches have said as much.