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Expectations for Draft Picks

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Goaldeje

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James Madison


Just curious, I'd be interested in knowing what everyone's expectations are for draft picks by round. I'm not specifically referring to this year's class or any other, more along the lines of, what do you expect out of a fifth round pick? How different is that from your expectations of a 7th rounder?

And I know the expectations vary by position as well, but feel free to factor that in as well.
 

Jimbo

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I think a lot depends on the position and the guys in front of them on the depth chart. Generally speaking, and depending on your depth, you might expect anyone drafted in the first three rounds to be capable of starting immediately. If you are struggling at certain positions, you could possibly add 4th rounders to that list as well.

Anything beyond that, IMO, is drafted for depth/special teams. Occasionally, especially in Shanahan's case, a late round RB could end up starting a game or three due to injuries because the scheme is considered to be "plug & play".

TE is another position that could be drafted in later rounds and end up starting sooner rather than later.

QB's are a different story but I don't see hardly ANY QB starting off the bat unless they are drafted in the first two rounds.

As for THIS year's draft class, I don't see any of them starting right away other than RG3. McRibeus might have a shot if Lichtensteiger isn't ready to go.
 

Lanky Livingston

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There are exceptions to every rule, but here's a general outline of what I expect from draft picks:

1st round pick - I expect them to come in and start immediately (possible exception is QB, depends on how raw he is) and make an impact. Ryan Kerrigan taking a TD to the house in his first or second start, for example.

2nd-3rd round pick - I expect them to compete for a starting job (give the starter a run for his money or take it outright if the starter sucks), and eventually become a starter in his 2nd-3rd year, but get a lot of PT on the way. Should make a significant contribution even if in a depth/rotational role.

4th-5th round pick - I expect them to make the final 53, possibly play their rookie seasons but more for depth/backup purposes, being groomed to eventually start or be a primary backup/rotational player. Should start to make an impact by his 2nd-3rd season.

6th-7th round pick - I expect them to make the practice squad, possibly cracking the final 53 in their 2nd-3rd season. These guys are ST primarily, but should be given the chance to learn their positions at the NFL level and possibly play as a rotational guy.
 

Henry

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Lanky's got it about right.

1st and 2nd rounders I expect to start sooner rather than later, preferably before their rookie season is half over.

3rd rounders I expect to start by their second year, or at the very least be a solid depth player.

4th and 5th rounders I expect to be solid backups by the end of their rookie year. After a couple years if they can transition to the starting role that's a nice bonus.

6th and 7th rounders I hope can provide depth eventually. Maybe make the team as a special teamer. Anything beyond that is a bonus.

All that said, I do expect one or two players to exceed these guidelines. I also expect one or two players to wash out completely.
 

Elephant

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I think you guys are placing a lot of value on 6th and 7th picks. The past couple of drafts we appear to have gotten value, we'll see how it all works out over the next couple of years. But with such a talent depleted team, we had to depend on those guys more than we should have, Hurt, Smith, Paulsen, Banks, Austin, Golston, Nield.

I like many of those guys and enjoy rooting for the under dog, but that is a lot of 6th or 7th or UDFA players who would not have a chance on a team with moderately more talent than we've had over the last 5 years.

So, if we were a team like the Packers, Giants or Patriots, these guys would have little to no chance to make the squad.

Cardinals, Seahawks, Jaguars, Dolphins...these guys might have a chance with them so I think it depends on the team drafting as well.

If you want me to narrow it down to only the Redskins, I think Lanky is on track. I do think 4th and 5th rounder are more special teams guys/backups/perhaps developmental players. Unless of course it's a Shanahan RB.
 

Lanky Livingston

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El, Shanahan has made a career out of late-round linemen. :)
 

Elephant

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El, Shanahan has made a career out of late-round linemen. :)
Not 6th and 7th rounders who have had lengthy careers. Maybe filling in on spot duty, but his most successful teams have not been put together from 6th, 7th round or UDFA lineman.

In fact, the only 7th round choice Shanahan himself ever spent on an O-lineman that had anywhere near a lengthy career in the NFL was Tom Nalen...who was very solid over his career. He was the only 7th round pick Shanahan ever made that worked out for longer than spot duty.

I will even cede Chris Myers in Houston since Shanahan drafted him in the 6th round before he moved on to Houston.

Other than those two 6th or 7th round selections by Shanahan tell me who has worked out for longer than 2 or 3 years? That is over 14 years in Denver.

Edit: There are a number of 4th rounders who have been solid as well.

And I used pro football reference if you want to look it up.
 
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Lanky Livingston

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By late-round I meant 4-7; "Second Day Picks" as they used to be referred to.

Nalen is the obvious one - pro-bowl guy who played for a long time (7th).
Trey Teague - played in 94 games with 80 starts in 9 seasons, 7th round pick 1998
Cooper Carlisle - 174 games and 117 starts in 11 seasons, 4th round pick 2000
Ben Hamilton - 118 games and 110 starts in 10 seasons, 4th round pick in 2001
Chris Meyers - played 41 games with 16 starts for the Broncos, 6th round pick in 2005 - left for Houston with Gibbs I believe
Chris Kuper - 79 games and 73 starts in 6 seasons, 5th round pick in 2006
Kory Lichtensteiger - 4th round pick in 2008]

Not to mention - a lot of these guys probably would have been available later, but as we saw this year, Shanahan tends to reach on linemen he really likes.
 

Elephant

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Lanky, I really don't want this to get blown out of proportion.

Your reply to my assertion about 6th and 7th round picks was vague at best. I can't think you were replying to anything else because I was agreeing with you on most of the other stuff. So I clarified that the later rounds, 6th and 7th, have not been as highly successful as has been suggested. Those are the later rounds by your own definition in past discussions, the 4th and 5th rounds are actually middle rounds.

I know we are playing semantics here, we really agree more than we don't, but Shanahan has been more successful with Free agent and 1st or 2nd round O-lineman than any other rounds. He has had a little bit, 2 players from 6 and 7, succeed in his system but he has not been as successful in the "later" rounds many have suggested. And most of the players you mentioned from the 4th and 5th rounds played during the Shanahan lean years, his less successful teams so it comes back around to my assertion that those guys would not have played on better teams.
 

Lanky Livingston

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Why would you say you don't want to get something blown out of proportion and then write 2 more paragraphs on it? I said I was referring to 4-7th rounders, and listed the examples. I don't really know what you're trying to do here, so I'm just going to drop it.
 

Elephant

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Why would you say you don't want to get something blown out of proportion and then write 2 more paragraphs on it? I said I was referring to 4-7th rounders, and listed the examples. I don't really know what you're trying to do here, so I'm just going to drop it.
Lets take this through it's natural progression one more time so you are capable of seeing how wrong you are here and I will do it in this forum in a respectful manner.

1.) Goal starts a thread asking for opinions on the valuation of draft picks.

2.) You put forth an assertion I agreed with mostly.

3.) I suggest some of you place too much value on the 6th and 7th rounders, otherwise I agree mostly.

4.) You challenged my assertion in a very vague manner and attempt to pass it off as friendly by adding a smiley.

5.) Without knowing your "real" definition of the later round picks since your previous post was rather ambiguous, I assumed you were talking about the 6th and 7th round statement I made since that was our only real difference, as I stated.

6.) You come back saying that the 4th and 5th rounds are included in the later rounds, attempting to clarify your previous obscure statement.

7.) After your attempt at clarity, I tried to be gracious yet point out that in the past you have made claims that the 4th and 5th round picks are mid round picks and all of a sudden they are later rounds to fit your definition in this discourse, and that those players you quoted played on teams that were less successful. This makes your claim of their success, even though they started many games, less conceivable.

8.) Then you come back with the some aggression, trying to paint me as the bad guy here by suggesting I was not being anything but respectful by questioning my efforts to clarify this without it devolving into the same type of pissing match we've had in the past.

You sir are being discourteous, almost contemptuous! There is no need for your insolence to attempt to create animosity. We could have had a more respectful discourse had you been a little less vague in the first place.
 
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Bulldog

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Expectations for rookie picks is based largely on where the existing holes on the club are as most of us have not seen these players live in games prior to their being drafted.

So, LeRibeus and Gettis appear to me to have a very good chance of seeing time in 2012 due to the unsettled situation with Kory's recovery from the ACL, the uneven play of Maurice Hurt in 2011 at guard and Will Montgomery being an average center.

I don't expect much out of Cousins and Morris in 2012 largely due to who is ahead of them on the depth chart.

Compton has a chance to make the roster but having played at Dakota against questionable competition, you would have to think that even if Jammal Brown falters others will fill in at RT before Compton would get a chance. But you never know with Shanahan. His calls on the OL are often the right ones long-term but can be head scratchers at first.

Of the other picks, Robinson would seem to have a decent chance to make a mark on special teams in 2012. Whether he plays in 2012 in the regular defense appears to rest in part on how healthy the ex-Giant Goff is. If healthy he appears to be the first call off the bench at the ILB spots.
 

Ax

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Expectations? Zilch.

Hopes? That every one of them, regardless of round selected, is our franchises next Hall of Famer.
 

Lanky Livingston

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Expectations? Zilch.

Hopes? That every one of them, regardless of round selected, is our franchises next Hall of Famer.
You have to have at least some expectations, no? Even if its expecting them to report to Ashburn in time for camp? :D
 

Boone

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Marine Corps Virginia

There's nothing wrong with a single post in this thread, other than the last line in yours Elephant, which I think was unnecessary. Get back to the topic at hand.
 
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