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Economist: Republicans in Search of a Nominee

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Goaldeje

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James Madison


The Republicans in search of a nominee
A rival for the president
Bring forth a pragmatic Republican: he (or she) might win

Mar 3rd 2011 | from the print edition

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CAN Barack Obama be beaten in next year’s presidential election? That is the question that a squadron of nervous Republicans are asking themselves as they weigh up whether or not to jump into the fray, an undertaking that will cost them hundreds of millions of dollars and prove intrusive, exhausting and quite possibly humiliating. So far only two obscurities have declared themselves, a pizza mogul and a gay-rights activist. But the field is about to start filling out (see article).

In 2007 the race was already in full swing by now. The slow start, many reckon, is attributable to a severe case of cold feet. Incumbent presidents, on the whole, win re-election. The only three to be turfed out since the second world war have been the hapless Jimmy Carter; and Gerald Ford and George Bush senior, who were both running for re-election at the end of, respectively, two and three terms of Republican rule. Mr Obama’s approval ratings, at around 48%, are respectable, and the economy is clearly recovering, though still fitfully (see article). He has a huge war chest and the slickest electoral machine that America has ever seen. He will, certainly, be hard to beat.

But not impossible. Consider that Mr Obama, who ran a pretty good campaign in 2008, beat John McCain, who didn’t, by 192 electoral-college votes, a big number but not a landslide. The challenger needs therefore to switch states “worth” 97 votes to his (or her) column—a total that falls to 91 once you take into account the census which has helped the Republicans. Next, look at the 81 votes in five big swing states which plumped for Mr Obama in 2008: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana and Wisconsin.


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Sarge

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he can be beaten and he should be beaten..im just worried we dont have anyone who we can say "thats the guy/woman"

no way i vote for anyone with palin attached..mccain was too old anyways at the time. whos there?
If it's between Palin and Obama, who do you vote for?

Personally, I think the Repubs are keeping their powder dry. Who wants to take a 24/7 bashing from the Obama media for the next year and a half?
 

Goaldeje

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If it's between Palin and Obama, who do you vote for?

Personally, I think the Repubs are keeping their powder dry. Who wants to take a 24/7 bashing from the Obama media for the next year and a half?
You may be right. But the article makes a great point. Say what you will about Obama, but he has a slick campaign machine. You don't want to give him too much time to relaunch that machine and get momentum.
 

Elephant

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Newt has a better chance than Ron Paul does. In fact, at this point, I would not be a bit surprised if Newt ends up with the GOP nomination. He is a crafty politician and he would shred Obama in the campaign or any debate they would have. The only problem lies in whether he can overcome his character issues. I mean, he did exchange his wife for a younger, hotter model.
 

fansince62

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Newt has a better chance than Ron Paul does. In fact, at this point, I would not be a bit surprised if Newt ends up with the GOP nomination. He is a crafty politician and he would shred Obama in the campaign or any debate they would have. The only problem lies in whether he can overcome his character issues. I mean, he did exchange his wife for a younger, hotter model.

And Obama dabbled in drugs...does he really want that exchange?
 

Sarge

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Ron Paul..
That's like voting Obama.

Look, this isn't hard. Icould beat Obama right now. Kabillions in deficits for shovel ready jobs that he later admited didn't exist. The deer in the headlight look during the oil spill, then taking a vacation while the oil was still gushing. The lies of Obamacare. The completely un-American foreign policy. Cutting the military.

It goes on and on. Even liberal tards like Matt Damon are jumping ship.

It's too easy
 

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I never buy that. It seems to me like if enough of us vote 3rd party these guys will realize they need to get their act together. but it takes both sides to do that.
Precisely. The article mentions that if there is a legit Repub candidate (NOT Palin) who moves the needle, it will push Obama more to the center position he ran on as a response. That would be a start.
 

fansince62

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Precisely. The article mentions that if there is a legit Repub candidate (NOT Palin) who moves the needle, it will push Obama more to the center position he ran on as a response. That would be a start.

out of curiosity...why isn't Palin legit? The current occupant...by all appearances... is a disaster and has nothing over her when it comes to performance.
 

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Maybe this is coming out of left field (no pun intended) but I kinda like Huckabee. If he ran I'd consider voting for him.

There is no way in this or any other lifetime I'd vote for Palin. If you don't like Obama because he's an empty suit that's all style and no substance, I don't know how you could like Palin any better.
 

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out of curiosity...why isn't Palin legit? The current occupant...by all appearances... is a disaster and has nothing over her when it comes to performance.
And you think Palin would be better? Are you kidding me? I cringe every time she opens her mouth. You may disagree with Obama, and indeed, as I do, feel that he has done a poor job thus far. BUT, if the choice is Palin or Obama, I honestly don't know who I would vote for. She is a disaster waiting to happen. Fortunately, I really don't think the Repubs will let it come to that.
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And you think Palin would be better? Are you kidding me? I cringe every time she opens her mouth. You may disagree with Obama, and indeed, as I do, feel that he has done a poor job thus far. BUT, if the choice is Palin or Obama, I honestly don't know who I would vote for. She is a disaster waiting to happen. Fortunately, I really don't think the Repubs will let it come to that.
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Hey, if the GOP wants a woman heading the ticket there's always Olympia Snowe.
 

Sarge

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Maybe this is coming out of left field (no pun intended) but I kinda like Huckabee. If he ran I'd consider voting for him.

There is no way in this or any other lifetime I'd vote for Palin. If you don't like Obama because he's an empty suit that's all style and no substance, I don't know how you could like Palin any better.
Maybe because she was a governor of a state, which gives her far more experience than the street agitator we have now
 

fansince62

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Maybe because she was a governor of a state, which gives her far more experience than the street agitator we have now
I have some reservations about Palin, but she does have something Obama lacks: BALLs.
 

fansince62

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And you think Palin would be better? Are you kidding me? I cringe every time she opens her mouth. You may disagree with Obama, and indeed, as I do, feel that he has done a poor job thus far. BUT, if the choice is Palin or Obama, I honestly don't know who I would vote for. She is a disaster waiting to happen. Fortunately, I really don't think the Repubs will let it come to that.
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that's my point: Obama is a disaster HAPPENING. what...from your pov...would be the difference?
 

Henry

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Maybe because she was a governor of a state, which gives her far more experience than the street agitator we have now
She was governor for all of two and half years, including the time she spent running for VP.

I wouldn't call that 'far more' experience than someone who will have been President for four years.

that's my point: Obama is a disaster HAPPENING. what...from your pov...would be the difference?
Why would you want to replace a disaster with another disaster? I'd rather have a viable alternative to Obama in '12.

Palin ain't it.
 

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