The Republicans in search of a nominee
A rival for the president
Bring forth a pragmatic Republican: he (or she) might win
Mar 3rd 2011 | from the print edition
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CAN Barack Obama be beaten in next year’s presidential election? That is the question that a squadron of nervous Republicans are asking themselves as they weigh up whether or not to jump into the fray, an undertaking that will cost them hundreds of millions of dollars and prove intrusive, exhausting and quite possibly humiliating. So far only two obscurities have declared themselves, a pizza mogul and a gay-rights activist. But the field is about to start filling out (see article).
In 2007 the race was already in full swing by now. The slow start, many reckon, is attributable to a severe case of cold feet. Incumbent presidents, on the whole, win re-election. The only three to be turfed out since the second world war have been the hapless Jimmy Carter; and Gerald Ford and George Bush senior, who were both running for re-election at the end of, respectively, two and three terms of Republican rule. Mr Obama’s approval ratings, at around 48%, are respectable, and the economy is clearly recovering, though still fitfully (see article). He has a huge war chest and the slickest electoral machine that America has ever seen. He will, certainly, be hard to beat.
But not impossible. Consider that Mr Obama, who ran a pretty good campaign in 2008, beat John McCain, who didn’t, by 192 electoral-college votes, a big number but not a landslide. The challenger needs therefore to switch states “worth” 97 votes to his (or her) column—a total that falls to 91 once you take into account the census which has helped the Republicans. Next, look at the 81 votes in five big swing states which plumped for Mr Obama in 2008: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana and Wisconsin.
More at link
A rival for the president
Bring forth a pragmatic Republican: he (or she) might win
Mar 3rd 2011 | from the print edition
*
*
CAN Barack Obama be beaten in next year’s presidential election? That is the question that a squadron of nervous Republicans are asking themselves as they weigh up whether or not to jump into the fray, an undertaking that will cost them hundreds of millions of dollars and prove intrusive, exhausting and quite possibly humiliating. So far only two obscurities have declared themselves, a pizza mogul and a gay-rights activist. But the field is about to start filling out (see article).
In 2007 the race was already in full swing by now. The slow start, many reckon, is attributable to a severe case of cold feet. Incumbent presidents, on the whole, win re-election. The only three to be turfed out since the second world war have been the hapless Jimmy Carter; and Gerald Ford and George Bush senior, who were both running for re-election at the end of, respectively, two and three terms of Republican rule. Mr Obama’s approval ratings, at around 48%, are respectable, and the economy is clearly recovering, though still fitfully (see article). He has a huge war chest and the slickest electoral machine that America has ever seen. He will, certainly, be hard to beat.
But not impossible. Consider that Mr Obama, who ran a pretty good campaign in 2008, beat John McCain, who didn’t, by 192 electoral-college votes, a big number but not a landslide. The challenger needs therefore to switch states “worth” 97 votes to his (or her) column—a total that falls to 91 once you take into account the census which has helped the Republicans. Next, look at the 81 votes in five big swing states which plumped for Mr Obama in 2008: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana and Wisconsin.
More at link
Smart a$$edness appreciated!