How did New Orleans get their franchise QB? How about Green Bay? Seattle(Even though his reign is coming to an end)? Baltimore (if he is indeed one)? Arizona? New England? Carolina? Dallas?
These are teams that have been successful over the last few years (If you consider playoffs or a SB appearance successful). Dare I add the Texans with an outstanding QB in Schaub? The QB's on these teams were either drafted later or were not draft picks at all with 2 coming in the mid to late 1st round .
As far as QB's taken within the first 5 picks, San Diego, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, maybe the Giants and maybe the Jets have franchise QB's. That is 5 or 6 out of 32 teams taken within the first 5. There is also a long list of QB's within the first 5 picks that have bombed and a couple that are still on the fence.
I am not sure if this shows any correlation between top picks and their success as a franchise QB, but what it suggests to me is that a franchise QB can be had late in the first round, in the second, third, later, not drafted at all or picked up in a trade.
I believe the one thing we can't do is take the chance of wasting a high 1st round pick on a kid that may or may not heal from his injuries when there is so much that needs to be addressed now. Draft a question mark at #4, sit him for a year or two and when he comes in discover he was all hype? Is that worth such a high pick? I guess some believe it is worth the risk. I believe we need to get the most value from the #4 pick. I think trading down will give us the most value.