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Do you NEED fair value when trading down?


Camp Fodder
Dec 9, 2009
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Say at #4 that Okung is gone, Bradford is gone and these were the two players that the Redskins wanted at this pick (this is hypotheical).

Their next choice is either Clausen or Williams who project lower in the first round. They know certain teams want Suh or McCoy.

Trading down is hard... If you're trying to get "fair value".

But wouldn't just trading down for even just a crappy 7th round pick be worth it?

(Hypothetically) we don't want Suh or McCoy. We want Clausen or Williams. So even if we can't get "fair value", if a team is offering their 1st and 7th, shouldn't we just take it?
No way! There is much more value than that in the #4 pick. 1st and 2nd or maybe a 1st and high third would be worth it in my mind, but not a 1st and 7th. That would be giving away the farm.

I have thought about this as well and I think the supposed value is something much higher than my suggestion. If we could trade down with someone in the top 10 and gain a second I would be happy.
I'd even consider trading for one of the 49ers 1st rounders-if they threw in a second and fourth-or offer them Campbell and make it second and third.

If you're gonna dream-dream big. Besides, I was on three 49ers fan boards yesterday and on all three of 'em people we're posting questions about Campbell's availability. I know, it's the fans and not the FO-but the fans are thoroughly disgusted with Alex Smith-and mad with their FO for not going after McNabb...so, I figured, hey who knows?

Trade down the #4? Basically situation-dependent, I think, but I'd really only be willing to do it for another first and either a second or a third. Or a first and fourth this year and a second next season. A lot of possible combinations here to play with. The one thing that makes it attractive is the apparent depth of this draft.
It depends on what 1st round pick I am getting in return although even then just their 1st and 7th is a bit light.

The 6th pick is worth much more than the 12th pick so what is packaged with it wouldn't need to be as high.

Personally, I agree with the theory you have going here, Blackjack. If I could get the same guy I wanted while picking up more picks I would not be as worried about true market value for the pick. Especially since I am also going to be paying my guy less if I take him several spots lower.
of course it depends how far we trade down in the first. If it is still in good LT area, (top 10), i could go for a 3rd and a 5th. 10-15, I would hope to get a second. 15-20 a second and a 4th and so on as I am sure everyone gets the idea. If they are serious about Trent Williams being the best fit for us, I could see a good trade down scenerio for us. Along with getting a 1st anda 3rd for Haynesworth we would be in good shape.

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