Determining value (are the redskins capable of it?)

[Rymanofthenorth]

Some of the guys I argue with the most on here gave me this idea, and its a valid thing to argue.

Can this team realistically determine a players value? Can we?

at the start of the year I said that by going to a 3-4 on a strictly value based system we were losing before we even set foot on the field, By playing guys out of position, you lower their value both ways, very few players at this level get better when they change positions and very few increase their worth. So not only would we lose on the performance end, but several players who we found to be very valuable would decline in value as well as performance. (ie AC who was a prowbowl starter with 11 sacks which should be worth a first rounder performance wise would suddenly be worth no more than a 4th and now probably a 5-6th) this is a huge loss. basically you take 1st round worth and get a 4th for it.

also a Players value fluctuates according to several things, age, contract, fit within the system, character concerns etc etc.

Conversely we have had a couple guys who were low round draft picks or udfa step up at the end of the season and play better than our erstwhile starters, im hoping we dont stand pat on those guys because the ceiling for most udfa is not high and we need upgrades at a lot of spots.

Some people here are arguing that nobody should be safe, on a 7-9 team thats a valid argument, but if we simply start trading guys for far less than they are worth, the law of diminishing returns shows pretty clearly that we not only wont get better, but eventually we will have nothing of worth at all.

Last year we cut 10 guys right off the jump, some of them were still capable of playing at a journeyman level but had expensive contracts, we then signed players of comparable age or OLDER to replace those guys, instead of risking more on younger players with some potential. I call that recycling rather than rebuilding. when you do that you lock yourself in, there is no upside, just maintaining a certain level. We do not want this.

This offseason the FO MUST prove its good at finding talent, our dearth of picks combined with a massive free agency period could kill this team if we dont do it right. But I have to ask the guys who are talking about trading guys like Cooley and hall for 4th round picks, if we trade the little talent we have now, wtf will we do for the next 3 years when our talent base consists of 4th rounders?

Im hoping our braintrust can show some skill, but keep in mind no team has ever had 2 seasons in a row of the massive turnover that we have had and will need to have.

 

[Bulldog]

the strategy is really immaterial if the hand behind it is lacking

a number of strategies can be successful depending upon the GM.

some like moving back out of the first round and stockpiling #2 and #3 picks, figuring that these guys are a LOT cheaper but may not be that far behind if at all in raw ability.

others like to step up in a rebuild and get that franchise qb and dominant DL first and then work from there.

Still others combine effective drafting with SELECTIVE moves in free agency when a player that is really going to make a difference to that team becomes available.

the Redskins have tried all three approaches, albeit for indeterminate periods and with indifferent results.

but again that's because the front office talent has been poor.

the Redskins have had Top 10 picks in 2004, 2005, and 2007 and yet don't have a franchise quarterback or dominant defensive lineman. We chose to select secondary players only with those picks.

in 2008 the Redskins tried to use the 'trade back' strategy in garnering three #2 picks as well as retaining picks in rounds 3 and 4.

unfortunately, other than Davis ALL the picks were outright busts.

and we all know what became of the great free agent signings and trades that brought Dear Albert and Father Donovan to town in 2009 and 2010.

we did finally use a #1 draft choice in the top 10 on a premium lineman in 2010 and that offers some hope that sanity has returned.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

We can hope, but right now to me the jury is out. if we make another stupid trade I may lose my mind.

 

[Goaldeje]

Bulldog's Twin nailed it. The strategy is irrelevant if the talent evaluators suck. I am inclined to believe the talent evaluation could be better, to put it more politely. No planned changes, though:

john_keim John Keim
Shanahan said he has no changes planned for front office. Key word: planned

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

im hoping he isnt talking about the scouting dept we need an upgrade there.

yeah BT is correct, thats my point, our draft position wont matter, our trades wont matter nothing matters if we cannot adequately judge talent and more important how it fits with what we are doing as a team.

Im worried because so far its been some epic fails in that dept and thats gonna be the key to turning us around.

 

[Elephant]

Eric DeCosta! What would pry him from Ozzie? Money and title! VP in Charge of Personnel!

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

that would never happen, Shannahan has too large of an ego, as far as I know the main reason he came here was we were the only team dumb enough to give him carte blanche on the player/personnel side. but yeah El we can dream lol

 

[Elephant]

that would never happen, Shannahan has too large of an ego, as far as I know the main reason he came here was we were the only team dumb enough to give him carte blanche on the player/personnel side. but yeah El we can dream lol

See this is the one place I would step in if I were Danny Boy, a good owner would. I would go to Allen and tell him I wanted to ensure that we had all the resources we could to help this team win.

Then I would sit down with Allen and Shanahan and tell them as the owner of this team, you both have your authority over many of the aspects I once had my hand in and I like that, but I feel we need more help in player acquisitions and I am bringing in one of the NFL's best. Deal with it. Other than that I will remain on the sidelines.

There is a fine line in meddling and making the right choices. At this point I think Snyder is too scared to get involved with the on the field product.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

I completely agree but im pretty sure that when he brought shannahan here he told him he would have carte blanche on player aquisition/personnel, and I guarentee shanny wouldnt give any of that up.

what really chaps my ass about the whole thing is simple, no coach/gm has ever been very successful at the NFL level, not long term. the temptation to do everything possible to win now is far too great for someone whose ego demands total control.

The best way to have done this would have been to find someone who was solid at aquistion/scouting and match them with someone who was young enough to be willing to learn and experienced enough to want to win asap but still build for the future, instead we brought in a win now guy who simply refuses to admit his weaknesses.

I completely agree with you, what you said is exactly what he should do, he should also tell shannahan, "you are an OC, perhaps one of the all time greats, but your defences have been brutal and frankly you bring nothing to the table when it comes to defence, im bringing in a defencive coordinator who will have complete autonomy, and I have told him to run whatever defence he thinks will work."

but again that would be in a perfect world, instead we will get another year of Haslett, and probably another 2-3 because lets be honest as absolutely disgusting as we were this season, the D has to improve, and when it does I have no doubt people will say " well now we arent 32 we are 25th so next year we should be even better". LOL

 

[fansince62]

FA last year was very slim pickins. perhaps this off-season we will see a more methodical and productive combination of draft/FA roster management/restocking. draft impact players at 1 & 2, couple one significant FA signing, and use the rest for need/depth.

 

[Elephant]

FA last year was very slim pickins. perhaps this off-season we will see a more methodical and productive combination of draft/FA roster management/restocking. draft impact players at 1 & 2, couple one significant FA signing, and use the rest for need/depth.

We'll see how this pans out, but these fools have to get the CBA worked out. The NFL survived 2 strikes in the 80's but if they lose a whole season, they could pay dearly. It took baseball about 5 years to get going again and I am convinced they still haven't recovered. I don't believe the NHL has completely recovered from their strike season either, but they are coming on. These fools stand to lose a lot of money!

As for your post, I think you're spot on! 3 impact players, 1 FA and 1st and 2nd round draft picks. Maybe even get lucky enough to turn the #1 into a couple of picks in the first 2 rounds or if nothing else pick up a latter 1st and third this year and something next year.

Ryman, we agree on Haslett and the whole 3-4 thing, but I wouldn't go so far as to castrate Shanahan. I would definitely bring in someone like Decosta, but toward the end of the season the defense started playing better. I was listening to the radio after the game and they had interviewed London Fletcher. He said it wasn't until the 12th game of the season, but he said that is when players finally started to get it. Look at Carriker the last 3 games, solid play, Bryant came along as well. Look, I am not trying to defend Shanny here, I agree with the "3-4 switch was poor timing" crowd. I just wouldn't go that far at this point. We saw improvement from the defense in the last 2 and a half games so this 3-4 deserves at least one more year since we have committed. As much as I hate to say it and as much as I would like it to happen, Haslett should be the one at the helm. I'd love the idea of Wade Phillips in charge of the 3-4 if we are going to run it, but we're committed. We need to stay this course with the coaching staff right now.

As for Player Personnel, the more qualified minds the merrier. Bring in a whole team for player acquisitions, scouts and all with someone other than Shanahan to run it.

 

[Ax]

AC who was a prowbowl starter with 11 sacks which should be worth a first rounder performance wise would suddenly be worth no more than a 4th and now probably a 5-6th) this is a huge loss. basically you take 1st round worth and get a 4th for it.

Their can be no doubt that they greatly diminished the trade values of Haynesworth, McNabb, and Carter. Carter should have been traded before last years draft. But I don't think we would have gotten anything more than a 4th, then. Of course, that beats the hell out of the 7th we MIGHT get now.

My hope is, that whatever we can get for these guys, it is performance based.

i.e., get a 5th-6th for Haynesworth that becomes a 4th-5th if he makes the pro bowl. Or a 3rd if he makes defensive MVP. Something along those lines.

 

[fansince62]

We'll see how this pans out, but these fools have to get the CBA worked out. The NFL survived 2 strikes in the 80's but if they lose a whole season, they could pay dearly. It took baseball about 5 years to get going again and I am convinced they still haven't recovered. I don't believe the NHL has completely recovered from their strike season either, but they are coming on. These fools stand to lose a lot of money!

As for your post, I think you're spot on! 3 impact players, 1 FA and 1st and 2nd round draft picks. Maybe even get lucky enough to turn the #1 into a couple of picks in the first 2 rounds or if nothing else pick up a latter 1st and third this year and something next year.

Ryman, we agree on Haslett and the whole 3-4 thing, but I wouldn't go so far as to castrate Shanahan. I would definitely bring in someone like Decosta, but toward the end of the season the defense started playing better. I was listening to the radio after the game and they had interviewed London Fletcher. He said it wasn't until the 12th game of the season, but he said that is when players finally started to get it. Look at Carriker the last 3 games, solid play, Bryant came along as well. Look, I am not trying to defend Shanny here, I agree with the "3-4 switch was poor timing" crowd. I just wouldn't go that far at this point. We saw improvement from the defense in the last 2 and a half games so this 3-4 deserves at least one more year since we have committed. As much as I hate to say it and as much as I would like it to happen, Haslett should be the one at the helm. I'd love the idea of Wade Phillips in charge of the 3-4 if we are going to run it, but we're committed. We need to stay this course with the coaching staff right now.

As for Player Personnel, the more qualified minds the merrier. Bring in a whole team for player acquisitions, scouts and all with someone other than Shanahan to run it.

we had many issues with the 3-4 this past season. the most disappointing for me was the lack of a routinely effective pass rush. a 3-4 is conceived to create havoc by its unpredictability.

not sure if that is 1) learning curve; 2) no pass rush talent on the line; 3) lack of the right kind of athletes (except for Rak) at the LB position. I suspect the last......we'll see this off-season as the team makes its moves.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

we had no pass rush yet even after Cam wakes great season, we didnt even bring in Phillip hunt for a LOOK. and now the Eagles are going to sign him to play DE. we could have used him as a pass rush specialist at the least.

but hey we brought in Shaun Rogers, wtf is it with Shannahan and the browns dline?

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Unless all 31 other teams brought in Phillip Hunt for a look-see, you have no point. Oh wow, the Eagles brought in a CFL guy! They also drafted the mostly-useless Chris GoCong.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

perhaps you should do a little reading before beaking off, 9 teams brought Hunt in for a looksee, including the patsies. the last CFL sack leader who was brought over to the CFL is Cam wake, you know the guy who was leading the NFL in sacks until the final game of the season?

So yeah when our team has a massive hole at OLB and we could have gotten at the very least a pass rush specialist FOR ALMOST NOTHING. Its definately a sign that we arent doing evrything possible to find talent.

if we were set, then you might have a point, but we will be replacing at least 11 starters next season, are you saying we shouldnt be exploring every possible avenue to find talent?

Using Gocong as an example is pretty weak, I would stack the eagles player dept against ours right now.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

9 teams! So only 23 teams passed on the guy? I stand corrected - sounds like a can't-miss prospect to me!

One CFL sack-leader transitioning well into the NFL does not mean they are ALL going to transition well. More than likely they will become spot-replacement guys like Chris Wilson. The CFL, after all, is filled with guys who weren't quite talented enough to make the NFL in the first place; its very rare for someone to come BACK across the border and make an impact. I mean, the guy couldn't make the BROWNS. The Cleveland BROWNS.

I'm not really sure what you're even arguing at this point - that the Redskins should be bringing in every guy possible? Eagles don't even run a 3-4; so out of one side of your mouth you're praising the Eagles FO for bringing in talent to fit their system, and then out the other side you're criticizing the Redskins for not bringing that same guy in. I thought NFL players could only play one position?

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

what I am aruguing is rather simple, we cannot afford to pass on finding talent. and yet again we have been beaten to the punch.

several players have poor intial tryouts, Wake, was a bust in the NFL at a camp before refining his tools in the cfl, Hunt was an undersized DT in college, who needed a position change and some refinement.

The POINT Lanky is that when you are so hurting for talent you dont pass up any chance to get better. yes we should be bringing in every guy possible, thats what teams as bad as us do. unfortunately Shannahan is stuck in his " I know better" mode, lol @ bringing in cleveland Dlinemen.

Hunt is a guy with no position not an NFL dmvp candidate, guys like hunt are tweeners, and perfect for transitioning, dont be surprised when he does well. I won't.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

what I am aruguing is rather simple, we cannot afford to pass on finding talent. and yet again we have been beaten to the punch.

Not yet...if he comes out and has a big season, then I'll say you were right. He hasn't done anything yet, so saying we've (or any of the other 22 teams that didn't bring him in for a try out, or the other 8 teams that didn't sign him to a contract) missed out on anything is ludicrous.

several players have poor intial tryouts, Wake, was a bust in the NFL at a camp before refining his tools in the cfl, Hunt was an undersized DT in college, who needed a position change and some refinement.

So?

The POINT Lanky is that when you are so hurting for talent you dont pass up any chance to get better. yes we should be bringing in every guy possible, thats what teams as bad as us do. unfortunately Shannahan is stuck in his " I know better" mode, lol @ bringing in cleveland Dlinemen.

Well, he does know better - he's a two-time superbowl winning coach. And Shaun Rogers came in for a visit, he doesn't have a contract. Nothing wrong with kicking the tires on a guy - especially one as talented as Shaun Rogers.

Hunt is a guy with no position not an NFL dmvp candidate, guys like hunt are tweeners, and perfect for transitioning, dont be surprised when he does well. I won't.

LOL. A guy with no position, not an NFL DMVP candidate. SIGN HIM UP!! LOL.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

LOL ffs Lanky, the point is that rather than being proactive and taking some risks, we are standing pat, thats fine if you are the patsies, not so much when you are a team overhauling EVERYTHING.

so? really? your point was that Hunt did nothing intially so its no big deal, my point is that many players have poor starts and then become better, LIKE SAY Cameron Wake who also played poorly in his first chance, went on to lead the CFL in sacks, then almost lead the nfl in sacks. Hunt ius undersized for a dt but should fit as an OLB or DE he is prototype size for an olb actually.

But I guess we could just stand pat, seems to have worked really well, our I know better coach did a great job improving our defence.