Crucial Decision?

[Boone]

How often is the battle for the 3rd string QB position important? Hell, how often does it even register on an NFL team's radar?

Not very often.

I'm going to argue that in the case of the Washington Redskins, it's not just on the 'radar', it may well be crucial.

Jason Campbell's got a narrowing window to prove he can take it up more than a notch or two and be 'that guy' or lose his chance to be a franchise QB in DC, or perhaps anywhere in the NFL.

So lets envision that thing most of us would rather not. Campbell doesn't just fail to demonstrate he's 'that guy' - but takes a step back, suffers a season-ending injury, or otherwise implodes. It's not an unlikely scenario. In fact, the 'realist' in me (whom I almost never give the microphone to) says it's a 50-50 proposition.

What then prognosticators? If, as is nearly a certainty, the Redskins release not the aging steady backup Todd Collins, but either Chase Daniels or Colt Brennan, where does THAT setup leave us?

In a ****ty position if you ask me.

Hear me out. If Campbell doesn't have a grandly successful year (for whatever reason), he's almost certainly done in burgundy and gold. That leaves us with an aging overachiever (think Brunell II here guys) and a hope and a prayer in either Colt or Chase (whoever draws the lucky straw). Factor in whatever panic move we make during next year's offseason to fill the void left by Campbell, and we're back to square one.

So what, exactly, is Mr. Boone arguing here?

I'm saying it might not be insane, if Daniels and Brennan both show as much promise as I think they're capable of this year, to part ways NOT with one of them, but with Todd Collins. If Campbell goes down in flames (statistically or physically) is Collins capable of managing us to more than a few wins? Yes - I believe he is. But beyond this year, seriously, are we going to pin our hopes on him? I can't imagine it. So why mortgage our future to fight to a respectable .500 record for pride's sake if Campbell goes down? I think it's possible that one of our youngsters may well prove they're an NFL QB one day here soon. I have little faith we'll correctly identify which one of them it will be. I'd argue the smart call, for the long-term good of the franchise, might be to let Collins go on his way and hedge our long-term bets by keeping the two kids.

Go ahead. Let me have it. But I think there's a lot of logic in what I'm saying. The QB position is a crapshoot - you never really know what you've got until a player really has the chance to perform for a significant period in the regular season. It's a crapshoot. We know what Collins is - and he's not the future. But I fear we'll send the next Joe Theismann packing before we ever recognize him, all in the name of having a 'steady backup'. When Daniels or Brennan is lighting it up for another NFL team in the playoffs 3 years from now, I'll have the satisfaction of saying I told you so.

 

[Om]

Very nice. BG Overdrive nominated.

I can't wait to see Daniels play. Been following him since his HS days at Southlake Carroll outside Dallas (my brother's neighborhood school). Then watching him at Missouri, I remember telling my son that Chase might have been the smartest, most comfortable looking college QB I've ever seen. The man just plain "got" the game---we talk a lot about the game "slowing down" for QB's ... well, it looked like Chase was seeing the game unfold in slow motion.

I have real doubts about his being able to cut it physically in the NFL---I think his arm arm strength is going to be a problem for him, and I'm not sure he's tall/quick enough to go from 5 yards deep in the shotgun to under center and dropping back with all the behemoths right in his face. But I have zero doubts that if given the chance, and his arm proves NFL-quality, he could surprise one hell of a lot of people.

If the Skins see a realistic chance that could happen, I'd not be too shocked to see them make the move you're talking about. Particularly (and ONLY) if Colt has a strong preseason and looks capable of managing the offense.

 

[Elephant]

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[Boone]

Short of a totally hapless pre-season (and I don't think we'll see that from JC), I think he'll get the benefit of the doubt until the games count. Unfortunately, Collins is steady and he'll likely look like the best of the lot in pre-season, which'll only cement the decision to keep him.

The other big factor is the likelihood that Zorn is playing for his job. So in that environment, having a backup who gives you the best chance to continue to be competitive THIS year (with little focus on what benefit there is in holding onto him relative to the 'big picture') has a lot higher premium than it might if Zorn knew he had 3-4 years to get things going. Collins will be the #2. I just question whether it's the right decision to hold onto him if you are looking beyond the immediate future.

 

[Neophyte]

Any chance they keep a QB on the practice squad, you think?

 

[Boone]

I imagine, but I think both Brennan and Daniels have enough potential they'd be at high risk to be snagged by another NFL team.

 

[Jimbo]

My concern is, if Campbell tanks, both he and Zorn will be gone. A new HC will assuredly prefer choosing his own QB and possibly his backups. Are Brennan and Daniel what he's looking for? They'll both have to learn a new offense.

On the other hand, if Campbell actually plays better than expected but gets hurt and misses, for the sake of argument, two games, do you want Collins starting those two games or Brennan/Daniel? My money is on Collins.

John, you make a lot of sense if Campbell goes down early and is out for the year. I just don't think it would make short-term sense....unless Jason is playing poorly from the get-go.

 

[Boone]

I guess the core of my point is, we're always looking and playing our cards for the short-term. Seriously - who gives a guy with no head coaching experience the job over an experienced in-house DC with head coaching experience, then gives him 2 years to win? That's insanity. Maybe all of the speculation that Zorn has to win this year or he's out is just that. But if it's not it really shows how stupid our front office is. We should be looking at how to win for the next 5-10 years, not just this year.

I'm not saying Brennan or Daniels either one definitively has what it takes. They may both be busts. But I think they both have more long-term potential than Collins. And I don't think we're a Super Bowl-bound team this year that, if JC goes down or stinks it up, will only need a game manager to get us there.

 

[Sarge]

I guess the core of my point is, we're always looking and playing our cards for the short-term. Seriously - who gives a guy with no head coaching experience the job over an experienced in-house DC with head coaching experience, then gives him 2 years to win? That's insanity. Maybe all of the speculation that Zorn has to win this year or he's out is just that. But if it's not it really shows how stupid our front office is. We should be looking at how to win for the next 5-10 years, not just this year.

I'm not saying Brennan or Daniels either one definitively has what it takes. They may both be busts. But I think they both have more long-term potential than Collins. And I don't think we're a Super Bowl-bound team this year that, if JC goes down or stinks it up, will only need a game manager to get us there.

We are a sorry assed state of affairs, and it's not the teams fault, it's the front office. Or what passes for a front office on this team. You're right in that we don't plan for the long run, nor do we have any kind of identity. Are we a run team? Run and shoot? Fun and gun? I mean, just what the hell does the danny want this team to be?

The scary part is, he either doesn't know or doesn't care. Personally, I thnk after 10 years he's learned very damned little as a hands on owner, which is what he's wanted to be from day 1.

As for the QB situation I, like everyone else, havehad hopes for years that we could have the frnachise QB that we haven't had since Theismann 25 years ago. But our latest hope, Jason Campbell, looks more and more like a long line of potetial heirs that stayed a few years and then crapped out

 

[Hog Fever]

In Collins I think the team has a serviceable QB but clearly he is what he is at this point in his career. I don't think that's a bad thing though. He proved a couple of seasons ago that he was able to manage the game and help get this team into the playoffs. Some people like to downplay his role in that run to the playoffs but I'm not going to do that. He completed nearly 63% of his pass attempts in those 4 games. That's better than JC last season, McNabb, Romo or Cutler. He threw 5 TDs with 0 INTs. I'm not saying his numbers would project over a complete season, but that's not too shabby.

If we cut Collins loose and JC falters for whatever reason early in the season we have exactly zero game experience with either other guy, season over. Not a position I'd want the team to be in. You just can't work without a net here. With so much work (and money) put into the season by coaches and players we can't just throw caution to the wind and go with a maybe, or two maybes, over something we know will be at least good.

The team will likely have to take their chance and put Daniels on the practice squad. If another team signs him away then he becomes another team's project. They'd have to put him on the 53 man active roster for the rest of the season and that is not something a lot of teams want to do with a guy who isn't going to help right away. So I think the chance of someone signing him away would be low. I looked for the stats on how many players were signed from other team's practice squads last season but I couldn't find the data. I can't remember the last time the Skins picked up a player from another team's practice squad.

Best scenario we have obviously is for JC to come through. Barring that, Collins will be the best chance this team has to be respectable. Then we go into next off-season looking for the next Montana, because I'm not sure if that guy is on the roster.

 

[PennSkinsfan]

Nice post and I agree. Collins is at the point in his career where he is serviceable, just as a backup, which fits our needs. Brennan struggled last night and looked like hell. he has three games to show a bit more.

In Collins I think the team has a serviceable QB but clearly he is what he is at this point in his career. I don't think that's a bad thing though. He proved a couple of seasons ago that he was able to manage the game and help get this team into the playoffs. Some people like to downplay his role in that run to the playoffs but I'm not going to do that. He completed nearly 63% of his pass attempts in those 4 games. That's better than JC last season, McNabb, Romo or Cutler. He threw 5 TDs with 0 INTs. I'm not saying his numbers would project over a complete season, but that's not too shabby.

If we cut Collins loose and JC falters for whatever reason early in the season we have exactly zero game experience with either other guy, season over. Not a position I'd want the team to be in. You just can't work without a net here. With so much work (and money) put into the season by coaches and players we can't just throw caution to the wind and go with a maybe, or two maybes, over something we know will be at least good.

The team will likely have to take their chance and put Daniels on the practice squad. If another team signs him away then he becomes another team's project. They'd have to put him on the 53 man active roster for the rest of the season and that is not something a lot of teams want to do with a guy who isn't going to help right away. So I think the chance of someone signing him away would be low. I looked for the stats on how many players were signed from other team's practice squads last season but I couldn't find the data. I can't remember the last time the Skins picked up a player from another team's practice squad.

Best scenario we have obviously is for JC to come through. Barring that, Collins will be the best chance this team has to be respectable. Then we go into next off-season looking for the next Montana, because I'm not sure if that guy is on the roster.

 

[Jimbo]

Nice post and I agree. Collins is at the point in his career where he is serviceable, just as a backup, which fits our needs. Brennan struggled last night and looked like hell. he has three games to show a bit more.

In order for Brennan to show a bit more, he'll need the starting O-Line. The backups were horrible and he had little time to throw and was constantly running. Part of that was his fault but he needs time. The problem is that he's not getting it.

If the word isn't out now, it will be soon. If you want to stop the Skins' offense, blitz the heck out of the QB and keep doing it until they learn to pick it up.

 

[Neophyte]

If we cut Collins loose and JC falters for whatever reason early in the season we have exactly zero game experience with either other guy, season over. Not a position I'd want the team to be in. You just can't work without a net here. With so much work (and money) put into the season by coaches and players we can't just throw caution to the wind and go with a maybe, or two maybes, over something we know will be at least good.

With all due respect, I think that is just not true. In 2006 Tony Romo replaced Drew Bledsoe with absolutely no more game experience than Colt Brennan has now and he hasn't looked back. In 2001 when Tom Brady stepped out on the field he had thrown exactly three regular season passes, completing only one of those for a total of 6 yards. He had all of one regular season game more on an NFL roster than Colt Brennan has right now and no where near the college resume.

No one could know for certain how either of these guys were going to respond to the big chair. Neither had shown fans much in preseason appearances and there were concerns over both being the 2nd QB on their teams at the time.

What is the difference between those situations and ours? A coach willing to take risks based on having the team they want in the future and not being scared of the present. In short, a coach who is unafraid of failure in the pursuit of greatness. It sure paid off in New England and I don't think it has worked out so bad in Dallas so far either.

I like Todd Collins. I respect Todd Collins. But as long as he is here, he is stealing practice and preseason game reps from Brennan (or Daniels) and retarding their development.

 

[Hog Fever]

Point taken. Nobody knows a player can or can't do something till they do.

The difference here is that Tony Romo had the confidence of the coaching staff prior to taking over that he would eventually be the starter there. There was rumbling before that season that Romo was pushing Bledsoe and was the heir apparent. I remember, I was spending a lot of time in Dallas at the time and couldn't get away from it on their sports talk stations. They simply had to move the time table up. I don't think that's the situation with either of our back-up QBs. The Brady deal was more lucky than anything. A team finding a QB who rises up from a back-up role to lead his team to 3 Super Bowls has happened exactly once.

What your suggesting we do would make a lot more sense if the team didn't have so many other pieces in place. Most of us agree that the defense should be exceptional this season. Many also agree that although we have question marks at WR and on the O-line he offense is not without talent as well. Holding the line at QB might be enough to get the team into the playoffs. If we had to insert a rookie QB history tells us that even the most talented first year guys struggle. Season over, and then we go into next season hoping a project develops or looking to the draft.

What happens if the rest of the league (they could have drafted them) and our current coaching staff is right and neither of these guys is ready or might not ever be ready? I guess you could just say we'll never know till we try and you'd be right, but I don't think it's the right way to go.

Campbell has the most measurable talent of any QB on this team, this is a fact. If he can't get it done or gets hurt you might put Colt in to see how he does and see if you have a diamond in the rough, but if he fails you had better have another option than another rookie. Otherwise you have the Detroit Lions Mark II and we all know how that worked out.

 

[LizKauai]

I'll look at the game tonight- but I already have feelings based on what I heard on the audio game and what I've read.

The only one I am nervous about is Coach Zorn.
Players can play and they can be taught. They need rock-steady leadership from their coaches. They need to believe in what they are doing and have confidence that the plays they are being asked to make are the right ones and success depends primarily on their execution.

I like what happened to Flacco last year.
I hoped Colt was getting a similar a chance to learn and grow into the Redskins system without the added pressure of being a starter.
BUT- I can't overlook what I perceive to be an growing cloud of desperation from only one preseason game.

This is the time for Coach Zorn to stand up and be STRONG, not medium or low.
C'mon Coach... HTTR!

 

[Boone]

If we cut Collins loose and JC falters for whatever reason early in the season we have exactly zero game experience with either other guy, season over. Not a position I'd want the team to be in. You just can't work without a net here. With so much work (and money) put into the season by coaches and players we can't just throw caution to the wind and go with a maybe, or two maybes, over something we know will be at least good.

Great, great thoughtful post. But I'd argue, exactly wrong This encompasses the franchise mentality to a 'T'. You're correct, given our current focus on this year, and nothing but this year, Collins is the perfect #2. That's the rub. I LOVE Collins. Despite being THE. WORST. INTERVIEW. EVER. (trust me), he's solid as a rock. He's a good QB, and rarely does the wrong thing. I like the guy more than just a little bit. But seriously - how many teams, when their starting QB goes down, have a truly successful NFL season?

Not many.

And that's as it should be. So does it make sense to send young talent packing before we ever know what potential they really have, in order to have that 'steady backup'? In essence, at least in the long view, backup QBs are overrated. Finding a franchise QB? That's way underrated. Franchise QBs make everybody look smart, sexy, just a whole helluva lot better.

I know many will disagree. You can argue, in the current environment, you've got to 'win now'. I get that. My point is, the 'win now' philosophy is an approach doomed to failure. We should build, build, build for a decade of success. Screw 'this year'. Ultimately, we're going to have plenty of disappointing years trying to 'win now' anyway. I'd rather suffer in the name of building from within any day.

 

[Henry]

You're only looking at one scenerio Boone.

What if Campbell is having a GREAT year, but 10 weeks in pulls a hammy and has to go out for a month?

You want some third-string-quality nobody trying to keep us afloat until Campbell comes back? No thanks.

2nd string QBs are not on the roster to be The Future at the QB position. Their job is to hold down the fort if the 1st stringer goes down. Simply put Collins is light years more qualified to do that than the other guys. I'm not willing to toss that on the scrap heap on the off chance that one of two guys who have a 5% chance of making it in this league proves he can make it.

I know. We all LOOOOVE third string QBs in the off season. In reality, they are third stringers for a reason. And it's not because they are likely to be starting someday.

 

[Boone]

Again Henry - if the correct focus is only THIS year, you're 100% correct.

If.

I think your point about 3rd string QBs is a red herring. It's almost always true, except when the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana is your 3rd string QB. Then...not so much

 

[Hog Fever]

Funny Collins interview comment

Honestly, I agree with you. The Caps are my favorite model of how to do it right. As for the Skins I don't think the front office has gone about building the team the right way. Dan is able to pay for enough talent, even if the parts don't fit together well, that the team never tanks completely. We are never in position to take advantage of other teams by trading dead weight for draft picks because the owner, GM (or whatever he calls himself) fans and coaches buy into the idea that we're “close”.

For the team to have real sustained success it would take a shift in philosophy like what Marty brought in when he arrived. I'm sure his plan was to use Tony Banks until Sage was ready. You remember how people were calling for Jimmy Raye to be fired after one season? Marty was right not to fire him if he felt there was a plan and Jimmy was doing his best to carry it out. Sage has been all over the league but he's poised to start for the Vikes this season. I doubt it would have taken that long if he stayed here under Marty. The Skins on the other have given out a 100 million dollar contract to a DT and 55 million to a DB just this off season. We as fans cheer these moves for the most part and buy into the hype year after year. All teams are contenders before the season starts.

While I don't agree with the way Vinny and Dan build a team you can't take the “free agent” way of building a team half way. If our philosophy is to use free agency and veteran players more than we use the draft we have to keep Collins as the #2 and any other step we have to take to win now. In for a penny, in for a pound.

You'd have to admit that if we kept both of those guys and one or the other was pressed into service, and failed, sending the team to a 4-12 season, Zorn would be fired. Most fans would cheer the news. Right or wrong that's just the way it is. No way Zorn takes that chance. So in principal I might agree with you if we're talking philosophy of building a team, but it's not going to happen.

If we put Daniels on the practice squad I'd be stunned if anyone was willing to sign him away from us, put him under contract and keep him on the 53 man active roster just based on what he was able to show anyone in pre-season. He was undrafted for a reason. I think we'll be safe for at least one season.

 

[Henry]

Again Henry - if the correct focus is only THIS year, you're 100% correct.

If.

I think your point about 3rd string QBs is a red herring. It's almost always true, except when the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana is your 3rd string QB. Then...not so much

Boone, if the correct focus is ONLY the future, you're 100% correct.

Are you writing off this year? If you are, then I see where you are coming from.

But we're not coming off a 3-13 year. We don't have a brand new head coach and a new roster full of fresh faces. That's the type of team that blows up a position as crucial as QB and staffs the roster with a bunch of hopefuls.

Most other teams have to maintain a balance between the present and the future. Again, you seem to be totally writing off the posibility that we could be good this year. If we are 8-2 and Campbell with 25 TDs goes down for a few weeks, you REALLY want a guy who's never taken a snap in the pros to step in, on the off chance that he might miraculously turn out to be our franchise QB in '10?

Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. You simply can't base a strategy for success on exceptions. That's a recipe for failure.

I think I've made it clear that I have seriously lost faith in the front office of this team. But that's not based on the fact that they haven't completely thrown away convention and staked our future on a couple lottery tickets. It's because they are doing a lousy job. Keeping two fan-favorite nobodies on the team over a proven vet at QB won't make them look less lousy. It will just make them look desperate.