Amazing Similarities : Grossman's Super Bowl Year vs. 2011 Stats with Skins

[Fear The Spear]

Not sure if anyone noticed this, but Grossman's stats this year, almost completely mirror his stats from the year he took the Bears to the SB.
In some ways, his stats were better this year, some of them identical, and almost all of them were extremely close. He even bettered his stats in several areas, despite playing 3 fewer games this year than 2006.

Here's a few :

Comp. Pct (better in 2011 than SB year)
2011 - 57.9 %
SBY - 54.6 %

Avg YPC (better)
2011 - 6.9
SBY - 6.7

Avg Yards Per Game (better)
2011 - 242.4
SBY - 199.6

20+ Gains (Better)
2011 - 48
SBY - 47

Interceptions (IDENTICAL)
2011 - 20
SBY - 20

Fumbles AND Fumbles Lost (BOTH IDENTICAL)
2011 - 8 Fumbles, 5 Lost
SBY - 8 Fumbles, 5 Lost


Att/Comp
2011 - 265/458
SBY - 262/480

QB Rating
2011 - 72.4
SBY - 73.9

Total Yards
2011 - 3151
SBY - 3193

INT Pct
2011 - 4.4 %
SBY - 4.2 %

One thing you can say about Rex - He is DAMN consistent !!!

 

[China]

I guess that says a lot about the teams that were around him those years.

I wonder how many times he was sacked in each of those years.

 

[fansince62]

says he consistently sucks. when teams win...they win despite his performance...not because of.

 

[Boone]

says he consistently sucks. when teams win...they win despite his performance...not because of.

No - that's not it at all. The thing that drives anyone with Rex on their team crazy is that for stretches he can play at an impressive level, then turn around and look like the worst rookie in the league. He's the most inconsistent QB in NFL history.

There's not a guy I can think of that's equally capable of looking a Pro Bowler on quarter, a replacement scrub the next. He's never been consistent and I don't think he can be. There's something genetically wired in the guy that says 'throw it' when no other QB in the league would attempt it. And he's utterly incapable of silencing that self-defeating voice.

And yeah - those stats are amazingly alike. Wild. Not in a good way, but wild.

 

[Fear The Spear]

Though it may be hard to fathom or swallow, the stats also indicate that the Redskins could have been successful this year with Rex at the helm. If he was performing equal or better in all areas this year, than his Super Bowl run, then obviously it means if he had a different supporting cast, we could have been successful. A tougher defense, receivers that got better separation so he would not have even had most of those opportunities to force the ball into tight coverage.......

 

[servumtuum]

Though it may be hard to fathom or swallow, the stats also indicate that the Redskins could have been successful this year with Rex at the helm. If he was performing equal or better in all areas this year, than his Super Bowl run, then obviously it means if he had a different supporting cast, we could have been successful. A tougher defense, receivers that got better separation so he would not have even had most of those opportunities to force the ball into tight coverage.......

Fear, the overall season stats aren't giving you a picture of the true Grossman. He is inconsistent as hell even with a better support system.

Here are screenshots of his game-to-game performance in 2006 and 2011 taken from Pro Football Reference.

First, 2006.

Here's 2011.

As you will notice especially in the Cmp%, Rate (QBR), AYPA (Adjusted Yards per Attempt), and INT columns-his numbers varied even more widely in 2006 than they did in 2011. If anything he was more consistent this past season than he was in 2006.

A couple of things to note: He had several superlative games with QBRs over 100 but also several horrible games with QBRs under 50 in 2006. He also had 8 games in 2006 without any INTs as opposed to only one such game in 2011-if anything he has become more consistent by reducing the number of fantastic games as well as reducing the number of absolutely horrible games-he's regressing toward a mean that would place him in the "mediocre to sort of acceptable" category-but he's still having a lot of variation in his performances. His variation, while decreasing, is still too much to put the blame on coaching, system, OL, receivers or anything else but his inability to maintain consistency in QB play from one game to the next

 

[Boone]

It's also not just about stats. There are critical moments, probably 10-20 of them every game, where what you do has a huge impact on the game's outcome. You can light it up through the air for example, but if you can't convert on 3rd down, score in the red zone, avoid turnovers inside your own 20, etc.. you may not win games. Grossman is only consistent in his inability to make positive plays at those key points in a game.

 

[servumtuum]

It's also not just about stats. There are critical moments, probably 10-20 of them every game, where what you do has a huge impact on the game's outcome. You can light it up through the air for example, but if you can't convert on 3rd down, score in the red zone, avoid turnovers inside your own 20, etc.. you may not win games. Grossman is only consistent in his inability to make positive plays at those key points in a game.

Boone, the stats covering the things you mention are there they just take some data mining to find, but I'm pretty sure your estimation is correct about Grossman and if somebody were to drill-down looking for variations in red-zone performance, 3rd down conversions, turnovers related to field position and the like the numbers would most likely back you up.

 

[GSF]

Actually the 2 seasons were very different. The stat totals for the year were similar, but that's about it.

In '06, Rex had some tremendous games in which he played at a very high level. He would have a great game or 2, and then a horrendous game or 2. He wouldn't turn it over for a couple games, then he'd turn it over 4 or 5 times in a game. He had several games in which he played at pro-bowl level.

In 2011, Rex played pretty good most of the time, but then would have those classic, bonehead game losing turnovers almost every game. He never really got red hot for a whole game like he did several times in '06. Instead he got hot for maybe a half, or a quarter.

in '06 Rex was inconsistent from game to game, in '11 he was inconistent from quarter to quarter.

I really expected better from rex this past year. I knew he would have some terrible games, but I thought he would have some huge games as well which he never really had. i thought he would be smarter with the football and he was worse with it than ever in numerous games.

The Skins could have won games with Rex if he got the turnovers under control. Hard to understand how he didn't do more to accomplish that.

 

[fansince62]

No - that's not it at all. The thing that drives anyone with Rex on their team crazy is that for stretches he can play at an impressive level, then turn around and look like the worst rookie in the league. He's the most inconsistent QB in NFL history.

There's not a guy I can think of that's equally capable of looking a Pro Bowler on quarter, a replacement scrub the next. He's never been consistent and I don't think he can be. There's something genetically wired in the guy that says 'throw it' when no other QB in the league would attempt it. And he's utterly incapable of silencing that self-defeating voice.

And yeah - those stats are amazingly alike. Wild. Not in a good way, but wild.

and that's where we fundamentally disagree Boone. RG will never, ever look like a pro bowler to me. the mechanics themselves push him out of consideration far as I am concerned. it's not a consistency issue...IMO. he has fundamental technique flaws coupled to obvious physical limitations. I won't even get to the decision-making, since...in theory...that is correctable.

 

[servumtuum]

and that's where we fundamentally disagree Boone. RG will never, ever look like a pro bowler to me. the mechanics themselves push him out of consideration far as I am concerned. it's not a consistency issue...IMO. he has fundamental technique flaws coupled to obvious physical limitations. I won't even get to the decision-making, since...in theory...that is correctable.

Fansince, I agree with you on RG's technique and mechanics issue. His motions after the snap are, to me, not those of a skilled, competent, decisive QB and I find watching him uncomfortable. It's a bit like watching a mechanism that looks like it's liable to fly into pieces at any moment. I think what the numbers are revealing is that even within the constraints of a flawed QB "style" it is possible to occasionally still possible to have a good game now and again-just as it is to have a horrid one.

He seems, however based on the lessening of the variation shown this season, to be regressing toward a mean that is less than desirable and as GSF pointed out is now varying wildly during each game making snaps from center more "entertaining" if you like suspense.

 

[fansince62]

Fansince, I agree with you on RG's technique and mechanics issue. His motions after the snap are, to me, not those of a skilled, competent, decisive QB and I find watching him uncomfortable. It's a bit like watching a mechanism that looks like it's liable to fly into pieces at any moment. I think what the numbers are revealing is that even within the constraints of a flawed QB "style" it is possible to occasionally still possible to have a good game now and again-just as it is to have a horrid one.

He seems, however based on the lessening of the variation shown this season, to be regressing toward a mean that is less than desirable and as GSF pointed out is now varying wildly during each game making snaps from center more "entertaining" if you like suspense.

can't argue with that! and you hit pretty near center: the uncorrectable limitations will always lead to a "mean" that is closer to the origin than those who succeed consistently.

 

[Califan007]

Number of TDs thrown and TD percentage are the huge differentiators, stats-wise. Especially TD%.

If the 2011 version of Rex had thrown 7 more TDs and had a TD% of 4.8 (2010) instead of 3.5 (2011) the Redskins may not have ended up in the bottom of the NFC East.

To put it in perspective, Rex would have had to throw 7 more TDs in only 22 more pass attempts.

 

[Henry]

Same numbers in three fewer games?

Says to me we passed too much.

In 2006 the Bears ran the ball 503 times.
In 2011 we ran the ball 400 times.

With a QB that inconsistent you shouldn't be leaning on the passing game like that.

 

[fansince62]

Actually the 2 seasons were very different. The stat totals for the year were similar, but that's about it.

In '06, Rex had some tremendous games in which he played at a very high level. He would have a great game or 2, and then a horrendous game or 2. He wouldn't turn it over for a couple games, then he'd turn it over 4 or 5 times in a game. He had several games in which he played at pro-bowl level.

In 2011, Rex played pretty good most of the time, but then would have those classic, bonehead game losing turnovers almost every game. He never really got red hot for a whole game like he did several times in '06. Instead he got hot for maybe a half, or a quarter.

in '06 Rex was inconsistent from game to game, in '11 he was inconistent from quarter to quarter.

I really expected better from rex this past year. I knew he would have some terrible games, but I thought he would have some huge games as well which he never really had. i thought he would be smarter with the football and he was worse with it than ever in numerous games.

The Skins could have won games with Rex if he got the turnovers under control. Hard to understand how he didn't do more to accomplish that.

interesting. so...a statistican would say the means are the same but the variation worsened.

 

[GSF]

interesting. so...a statistican would say the means are the same but the variation worsened.

I guess...I don't really think about it like that. in '06 he had some awesome games. In '11 he had some awesome moments.

 

[servumtuum]

Same numbers in three fewer games?

Says to me we passed too much.

In 2006 the Bears ran the ball 503 times.
In 2011 we ran the ball 400 times.

With a QB that inconsistent you shouldn't be leaning on the passing game like that.

And therein, I think, lies the origin of the majority of the complaints against Kyle Shanahan. The "Rex Grossman ain't Matt Schaub" syndrome.

interesting. so...a statistican would say the means are the same but the variation worsened.

I guess...I don't really think about it like that. in '06 he had some awesome games. In '11 he had some awesome moments.

GSF phrased it well. In answer to your question, fansince, the magnitude of the variation decreased but the frequency of occurrence increased. As GSF stated earlier, Grossman's inconsistency in 2006 was from game-to-game, in 2011 his inconsistency was from quarter-to-quarter or, at times, from drive-to-drive or even from snap-to-snap. That's what made it so maddening-you never knew when it might happen during a game and he had few games without such "lapses".