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2012 Kentucky Derby......Got Streak?

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Nobody

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Army


So here we are, awaiting another year in my Kentucky Derby winning streak. With 12 consecutive wins, I was excited and fearful for this day. You see, I'm a superstitious man, and this is year 13 of the streak. Not that it means anything, but I would be lying if I said it wasn't in the back of my mind.

This year, the Derby will field perhaps the greatest lineup ever assembled. There are easily 5 or 6 horses I could see taking this, and that's scary. One thing that means for certain though, there will absolutely be no triple crown winner this year. I am seeing 3 races, 3 winners. But, I have narrowed down my pick to two possibilities, and it will all depend on post position, which won't be announced until Wednesday.

The two horses I'd put money on are Hansen and Dullahan. I have a very long and boring process I go through to come to this conclusion, but it's been dead on 12 straight years, and I even made quite a few of you quite a bit of money last year. As I mentioned last year, I never bet on the races myself, just out of fear of jinxing it, so I have nothing to gain or lose by making my pick.

All that being said, post is everything. Hansen needs to mount up toward the inside/middle of the pack to take it. If posted between the 4th and 8th, Hansen will be the victor in a runaway. I am certain that if the post is anything outside of that cluster, then Dullahan will take the win, followed by Went The Day Well and Gemologist. Post does make that much of a difference. Hansen will finish with the victory or 4th place, and it all depends on the spot. I will update Wednesday when the post positions are listed.
 

Nobody

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Because my process hasn't failed me in 12 straight attempts, I will be calling Dullahan the winner this year, but it is strictly due to post position. However, I can't shake this nagging feeling I have about Hansen. I don't like the post, being so far out, but I have never seen a more perfect horse in my lifetime. If I was betting, I'd put my money on both of them.

As it stands now, Dullahan is 8-1 and Hansen is 10-1, so there is more money to be had with Hansen at this stage in the game. But that will all change. Once betting gets going heavy, dump money on the first of these two horses to become a betting longshot.
 

China

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Thanks for your insight. You did win me some money last year. Hopefully you will again this year.
 

China

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Well, it didn't work out this year. Looks like your streak is over. Unlucky 13 I guess.
 

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