As posted on my FB page a short time ago.
Mid Day Tropical Update
As payment for my services, I would like a pizza. Or a barbeque sammich. You know where to reach me.
The computer models continue an eastward trend and that's great. However, this is how the models handled Sandy a few days prior to striking land. They were all over the place and it wasn't until thirty-six hours before it hit the Jersey Shore that we knew where it was going. Even then, we had a few doubts.
With all of that being said, many models now have it heading to somewhere between Manhattan to Cape Cod. It would be great if this eastward trend continues and I hope that scenario plays out, but we need to continue to keep a cautious eye on Joaquin. Tomorrow's models could be completely different and have it totally out to sea or it starts to bring it back to the west. There are several systems in the northern, middle, and southern Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf and U.S. mainland that are having an effect on Joaquin.
If I had to give out odds of where this system is heading, I would say twenty percent strike in North Carolina, twenty percent mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, twenty percent Jersey Shore, and the rest divided up between Long Island, Cape Cod, and out to sea. In other words, computer models are all over the place and still very divided on a solution.
We'll continue this vigil and try to pinpoint what happens in the next couple of days. We do know that all of SC, NC, VA, DE, most of NJ, and parts of FL, GA, NY, MD, WV have flood watches posted. Stayed tuned to your local services for updates and posted watches/warnings. Again, heed the advice of local media, NHC, and your favorite sources. Updates will be posted here periodically.
See you as we go along. Oh, and I repeat, pizza and barbeque sammiches.
 }})
