Blognostications: 2015 Week 1: Redskins vs. Dolphins

Week 1 Blognosticator: Boone

Every year as NFL games loom, pundits and experts seem to hone in on a handful of teams as this year’s Cinderella story, teams that have proven nothing but are chock full of tantalizing promise and potential. This year, one of those teams is the Miami Dolphins.

One has to wonder WHY?

Sure – the Dolphins have a solid QB starter in Ryan Tannehill, one of those 2012 draft picks that didn’t turn out to be a disaster. And of course, the Dolphins broke the bank in acquiring DT Ndamukong Suh in the off season. But all of the supposed talent on this Dolphins team hasn’t resulted in anything better than a .500 record since 2008 when they went 11-5. Over the past 10 years, the Miami Dolphins have looked a lot like, well, the Washington Redskins. And that’s not really anything to hang one’s hat on.

This is a big season for the Dolphins. A year ago, their franchise was under intense scrutiny due to the Jonathan Martin – Richie Incognito 'bullying’ scandal. Joe Philbin somehow managed to keep his job during that embarrassing episode, but he won’t keep it much longer if the Dolphins don’t post a winning record and make the playoffs. But wanting and needing it so, don’t make it so.

The Dolphins have added talent and they have a likely franchise QB in Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill’s done what the Redskins Griffin could not – he’s improved every single season since being drafted 6 picks after RG3 in 2012. Tannehill has thrown over 3,000 yards in each of his first 3 seasons, throwing for over 4,000 last year. His completion % has improved from a low of 58.3% in his rookie season to a solid 66.4% in 2014, including 27 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. It’s Tannehill that our Redskins will have to worry about most on Sunday when the Redskins take on the Dolphins in their 2015 home opener, not Suh, the vaunted Miami defense, or anyone else.

And that’s why the outcome of this game will turn on how much pressure the Redskins defense can put on him.

The 2015 Redskins? Let’s be honest. None of us know what to expect from this team on Sunday or beyond. What we do know is that the Jim Haslett era mercifully ended in the offseason, and the Joe Barry era has begun. We know that, on defense, the coaching staff and roster has seen major overhaul. What we don’t know is how well that defense will perform. We also know that the Redskins have gotten bigger, tougher, and meaner, adding talent at a number of positions. The Redskins went lunch pail on us in the NFL draft, selecting working man’s favorite Brandon Scherff to bolster an underperforming and undersized OL, and adding a physical brawler in Matt Jones at running back. They’ve also promoted 2nd year man, Morgan Moses, to right tackle. Whomever might be under center this season, they’re going to get better protection than they did in 2014. The Skins added some heft to the DL, adding to some already serious talent there by bringing in Terrance Knighton.

There’s no debating it – the 2015 rendition of the Redskins is bigger, tougher, and more talented than the one we cheered on in 2014. But how much better will they be?

A lot of that is going to depend on how well newly-named starter Kirk Cousins performs.

No one questions Cousins talent level. He’s a smart, accurate, natural passer who has all the physical tools necessary. But given the chance in 2014 to seize the starter reins for good in DC, he floundered, collapsing under the pressure of expectations that he could be DC’s savior. So far, in 2015, Cousins looks solid and confident. Only time will tell if Cousins will hold up under real game pressure, and be able to rebound effectively after the inevitable misstep.

We’ll start to answer some of our questions about Cousins on Sunday.

So what of Sunday? What’s going to happen and who will prevail?

It’s hard to make positive predictions when you’ve survived the past twenty years of Redskins fandom But it’s opening day on Sunday, at home. That ought to generate some positive energy. In fact, and perhaps surprisingly, the Redskins have won 11 of their opening games over the past 20 years. In home openers, the Redskins have been even better, going 8-5 at Fed Ex Field to start the season during that 20 year stretch. When it comes to winning home openers, the odds are with us.

But I believe the outcome is going to hinge on three key challenges. If the Redskins are to pull off an 'upset’ of the visiting Dolphins (and yes, sadly, when you’re coming off a 4-12 season, any win is an 'upset’) they’ll have to win in these three areas:

1) Stay committed to the run game. It will be tempting to abandon the run game if the Redskins get down early. We saw a lot of this in 2014. But Jay Gruden and company need to stick to the game plan and run, run, run. The Skins are loaded at running back. Matt Jones will be the breakout player for this team in 2015, and giving both Alfred Morris and Jones plenty of opportunities is crucial.

2) Kirk Cousins needs to get rid of the ball on time. Suh is overrated as is the Miami defense in general, but the Dolphins DL is talented. I believe the Redskins OL will be much improved this year, but it will take time for the revamped line to find its way. That means pressure will be coming at Cousins early and often. Cousins needs to fire the ball on cue, getting rid of it to live for another play when necessary. The Redskins are loaded at WR as well, and there will be open receivers to hit. The key for Cousins is to pick and choose his opportunities and not wait for WRs to come open.

3) The Redskins DL needs to tee off on Ryan Tannehill. The Skins DL is much, much better than most realize. Ryan Kerrigan is a perennial Pro Bowl talent just coming into his own. He enters this game coming off a knee scope, but he will have a major impact. Add to that a healthy Jason Hatcher, underrated 2nd year man Trent Murphy, and newcomers Knighton, Jackson Jeffcoat, Ricky Jean Francois, and Preston Smith, and the Redskins should be able to put significant pressure on Tannehill. If they do, he becomes an average QB. If they don’t, the Redskins will be in trouble.

The trump card on Sunday is how aggressively Joe Barry attacks the Dolphins offense. Shrink back, play conservatively, and the Dolphins have a major advantage. The Redskins secondary isn’t in shambles, but with Baushad Breeland suspended for the game, Deangelo Hall coming off major surgery, no proven starters behind them, and serious questions at safety, pressure on Tannehill is critical. Whether Barry has the guts to send major pressure at Tannehill will be a huge factor.

I see the Redskins running a lot on Sunday. But I also believe Jay Gruden will give Kirk Cousins lots of first down passing opportunities. Cousins will target a healthy Jordan Reed frequently and the Redskins will take the opening kickoff all the way down the field for a rare opening touchdown. This will be a back and forth, tit-for-tat game with no less than 5 lead changes, but it will be the Redskins who prevail, by a nose hair, on a game-ending Kai Forbath 45 yard FG. Ryan Kerrigan will have 3 sacks, Chris Culliver will have an INT with a long return, and Matt Jones will score his first NFL touchdown run on a 25 yard screen pass play.

Ndamukong will curse and spit, and even sack Kirk Cousins once. But he won’t be a major factor.

Redskins 30-27.

One of my good friends is a die hard fins fan, he has less confidence going into this game than I. For the reason you stated if we can't achieve pressure were going to get eaten up like a one legged prostitute in a zombie apocalypse. My brain says fins 24 and us 17 because we abondoned the run and cousins gets the yips again. My heart says skins 27, fins 21, great read Boone and HTTR!!

Great write up, bro. You really hit every aspect of the game I'm excited and worried about.

Thanks Mike! Truth? I remembered at about 3pm today that Neo had asked me to do the first Blognostications of the year and rushed home from the grocery and did the best I could...

Very nice job Boone.

I'd emphasize a few things that you've already mentioned. My gf has two rabid Miami sons, so I've been exposed to the team over the years due to that and because of proximity.

In short, Tannehill is what we hope Cousins can become. He had one of the best, but quietest seasons of any QB last year. He threw for over 4,000 yards and had only 12 Ints on 590 attempts. And with no WRs on the roster. He made a ton out of very little on that offense.

This season they have better WRs. Not hall of fame receivers, but some improvements. Kenny Stills is one, who was the deep burner for Drew Brees in New Orleans. They also drafted Davante Parker at number 14, and signed 65 year old Greg Jennings to be their vet. The good news is that we are facing these guys early in the season--presumably before they've built up a lot of rapport.

Cameron Wake is basically Ryan Kerrigan--but he's now 33 years old, and they also have a top 5 CB in Brent Grimes. Both of these names would be much more popular players if they were on better teams.

That's a solid team. This would be a very big win for us if we can pull it off.

It would be a big win, because most expect us to have very few of them, so it's a serious confidence booster. It would NOT be a big win because the Dolphins are a juggernaut. They haven't done **** in recent history and until they DO they are nothing more than a lot of talk with a good QB and the league's dirtiest player.

Boone said:

It would be a big win, because most expect us to have very few of them, so it's a serious confidence booster. It would NOT be a big win because the Dolphins are a juggernaut. They haven't done **** in recent history and until they DO they are nothing more than a lot of talk with a good QB and the league's dirtiest player.

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Miami has been bad. Bad FO, bad coaching and with a few exceptions, bad players. Just a poor organization overall.

They do have a few great players though. Even in our down years, we had London Fletcher. Brent Grimes is a problem, and Cameron Wake is an absolute beast--but an aging beast.

We just need to come out and be sharp. As you mentioned, this isn't a juggernaut. But they aren't the Browns either. They fall into the middle of the pack of seemingly improving teams like Minnesota who hope to grab a wildcard spot.

Nice job. HTTR

tr1 said:

I'd love to say we're going to win this game, but I have no freakin' idea of how anyone is going to perform.

O-line is going up against a tough group. Defense? I haven't seen enough to really make any judgement.

I'm guessing we're all not sure what will happen tomorrow.

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Agreed tr1. Here's my thing... asked to write the first one of these for the 2015 season, I'll be damned if I'm going to predict a loss! This is our home opener, we have a ton of new players and coaches, we need to start this season off right with a win.


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Boone said:

Agreed tr1. Here's my thing... asked to write the first one of these for the 2015 season, I'll be damned if I'm going to predict a loss! This is our home opener, we have a ton of new players and coaches, we need to start this season off right with a win.


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You did an excellent job. I wouldn't even want to try to follow this.

Honest question, is Grimes good enough to cancel out Djax?

As others mentioned we need to run atleast 35 times and play Hazmat free defense. If we do that we win semi comfortably.

Win4us said:

Honest question, is Grimes good enough to cancel out Djax?

As others mentioned we need to run atleast 35 times and play Hazmat free defense. If we do that we win semi comfortably.

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Yes. Depending on whose opinion you are reading, he's ranked between 4 and 6. Now that's if anyone can stop Desean.

It's time for Garcon and Reed to step up.

Let's not forget Crowder in this game. I know he's a rookie but Gruden has had very good things to say about him and maybe he eventually becomes our version of Julian Edleman.

He could be an X factor in the slot today.

Gotta run the ball and get the screen game going to help the line out today.

On defense...boy it would be nice to see constant pressure applied to Tannehill. Can we do it?

On opening day 2012, I wasn't excited at all because I had no idea of what kind of team we were going to have.

Have that same feeling today. Just no expectations, wait and see mode.

Me and my two kids (8 & 5 ) will be suited up in burgundy and gold and ready to cheer at 1pm est. , so we will be doing our part.

That's all I can guarantee today! :indian_chief:

1) Agree with DP's state of mind. somewhere along the line, before preseason even ended, the wind emptied from the sails.

2) Based on common sense:

- o-line. akes a while for an o-line to gel. two rookies on the right side? eh. it's gonna take a while. media/experts keep reporting Scherff's main problem at this point is getting high in his pass pro posture. I'll be looking for progress. not much reported on Moses during preseason, so not sure what to look for in terms of indicators.

- d-line. didn't see the pressure I hoped for in preseason. but, kerrigan didn't play and the blitz schemes were tame. will looking for that. will be looking to see run defense set in preseason is sustained. secondary? ugly. it would be nice to see some safety play actually defend a pass...maybe even a pick! my guess is most teams are gonna go right our secondary and lbs in the passing game game after game until we contain it.

- receivers. obviously a strength. the interesting part will be seeing who emerges.

- QB. we know Cousins likes to go to DJax. how well will he spread the ball around? can he reduce his pick to TD ratio? how will he perform when behind and the defense is teeing off?

- RBs. can ALF return to 2012 numbers w/o Griffin in the game?

- red zone. can we score more? sure would be nice. can we stop more? sure would be nice.

- kicking game. can we get more touchbacks? sure would be nice.

- coaching. can Barry demonstrate the ability to adjust on the fly? can Gruden actually conduct himself as an NFL HC as opposed to a High School level coach?

3 year rebuild. per McL, I see the Skins improving and being competitive. too many uncertainties at this point.

Preseason Performance: Miami 23 Skins 17

Surprise Factor: Skins 21 Miami 16 (pass defense better than expected)

I echo the sentiments of fan. It's like i have already prepared myself for the worst this year. Maybe that's a good thing. I thought the last 2 years we would be pretty good.

3 things worry me...

-D Hall: I fear he is going to be a shell of his former self and get beat badly. I really wish Breeland was playing.
-B Scherrf: It bothers me seeing him get blown up the way he has. That's usually not a good sign and indicates that he doesn't have the girth for the position.
-K Cousins: No explanation necessary.

If these 3 can play well today i think we have more than a good chance of winning.

It is tough for me to pick the Skins in this game only because we have 1 known reliable Offensive Lineman. I like the progress of Scherff and Moses in the preseason. Scherff did not allow a sack in the Baltimore game. That was big. Moses has surprised me with his improvement.

As Diesel said we do need to protect the Oline with our play calling. Hopefully by midseason the right side will have enough experience to not "have" to call the game to in such a way.

I want to see some of the young guys show real promise, and no injuries.

HTTR!

The Dolphins haven't won in Washington in 31 years.

Enough said.

Redskins 23, Dolphins 21 with a two minute drill ran to perfection by Cousins and a last second 41 yard field goal by Forbath.

Boone said:

Thanks Mike! Truth? I remembered at about 3pm today that Neo had asked me to do the first Blognostications of the year and rushed home from the grocery and did the best I could...

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Guess I should have sent a reminder.

Great job, brother.

I wasn't too far off on the keys to the game. I think we covered the first two well. We pounded the ball early and often and I don't believe we gave up on the run, although one could argue we should have gone more run heavy in the 2nd half. Cousins generally got rid of the ball on time as well. It was in the 3rd key that we fell short - getting consistent pressure on Tannehill. Kerrigan and company played well enough, but didn't put nearly enough heat on Tannehill, who gained confidence and really got going in the 2nd half. Coupled with injuries to our starting safety and DHall, and that lack of pressure killed us in the first half.

What I didn't anticipate were missing a gimme FG, numerous penalties, dropping gift INTs, and giving up a kick return for a TD. I take solace in that I was largely right - the Dolphins were not only not a juggernaut, they may not have been the best team on the field on Sunday. And Ndamukong Suh - overrated. He was a non-factor, just like I said he would be. Bottom line - I got the score and winner wrong. Next up!