• Welcome to BGO! We know you will have questions as you become familiar with the software. Please take a moment to read our New BGO User Guide which will give you a great start. If you have questions, post them in the Feedback and Tech Support Forum, or feel free to message any available Staff Member.

The Gruden Files - Year Two

Om

Burgundy & Gold Jacket
Staff member
BGO Ownership Group
Joined
Apr 11, 2009
Messages
10,106
Reaction score
1,348
Points
544
Location
Montclair, VA
Heading into 2015, one of the hottest storylines surrounding the Redskins has been about Head Coach Jay Gruden, both in terms of his performance as a rookie in 2014, and the expectations for how his team will fare going forward.

It got me to thinking about how other coaches have done in their second seasons. I chose the names to research unscientifically, starting with NFL Mt. Rushmore names I suspect would come to just about any pro football (Lombardi, Noll, Shula, Gibbs, Parcells...) and moving on to a quick mental inventory of today's most successful coaches (Belichick, Carroll, Reid, Tomlin...).

We can use this thread during the 2015 season to discuss the ups and downs of Gruden's performance, gauge what if any progress he and his team are making, and try to get a feel for the direction the Washington Redskins might be heading into 2016 and beyond.

Notes:

Because Pete Carroll and Mike Shanahan had more than one stint as NFL head coaches (and because in Shanahan's case he got fired four games into his second season as head coach of the Raiders) I've put them at the bottom simply because the formatting looks a little goofy.

I did cherry-pick, add or delete any names--I simply pulled names from under my hat until I figured I had enough to throw out there as a meaningful data base. I really do intend for this to be a representative sample, however, so if anyone wants to add other names please feel free to do so.


nfl_coaches.jpg

Here is a sampling of how several prominent head coaches, both historical and current, fared in the transition from their rookie to second seasons. For purposes of this thread, I have listed them in descending order of the best win differential between their rookie and second years.

- Listed first, in italics, are the records of the teams each coach took over the year prior to their arrival.

- Listed second are the records of each coach in their rookie years, noting the win differential over the team they inherited (+, - or =).

- Listed third, bolded, are the records of each coach in their second years, noting the win differential from their rookie years.

- Listed fourth are the records of each coach their third yeasr.


Bill Parcells
1982 4-5 (Giants)
1983 3-12-1 (-1)
1984 9-7 (+6)
1985 10-6


Jimmy Johnson
1988 3-13 (Cowboys)
1989 1-15 (-2)
1990 7-9 (+6)
1991 11-5


Andy Reid
1998 3-13 (Eagles)
1999 5-11 (+2)
2000 11-5 (+6)
2001 11-5


Chuck Noll
1968 2-11-1 (Steelers)
1969 1-13 (-1)
1970 5-9 (+4)
1971 6-8


Bill Walsh
1978 2-14 (49ers)
1979 2-14 (=)
1980 6-10 (+4)
1981 13-3


Mike Tomlin
2006 8-8 (Steelers)
2007 10-6 (+2)
2008 12-4 (+2)
2009 9-7


Vince Lombardi
1958 1-10 (Packers)
1959 7-5 (+6)
1960 8-4 (+1)
1961 11-3


Tom Landry
1960 0-11-1 (expansion)
1961 4-9-1 (+4)
1962 5-8-1 (+1)


Bill Belichick
1990 3-13 (Browns)
1991 6-10 (+3)
1992 7-9 (+1)
1993 7-9

1999 8-8 (Patriots)
2000 5-11 (-3)
2001 11-5 (+6)
2002 9-7


Joe Gibbs
1980 6-10 (Redskins)
1981 8-8 (+2)
1982 8-1 (=, strike-shortened season)
1983 14-2


Jon Harbaugh
2007 5-11 (Ravens)
2008 11-5 (+6)
2009 9-7 (-2)
2010 12-4


Sean Payton
2005 3-13 (Saints)
2006 10-6 (+7)
2007 7-9 (-3)
2008 8-8


Mike Shanahan
1987 5-10 (Raiders)
1988 7-9 (+2)
1989 1-3 (fired)

1994 7-9 (Broncos)
1995 8-8 (+1)
1996 13-3 (+5)
1997 12-4


Pete Carroll
1993 8-8 (Jets)
1994 6-10 (-2)

1996 11-5 (Patriots)
1997 10-6 (-1)
1998 9-7 (-1)
1999 8-8

2009 5-11 (Seahawks)

2010 7-9 (+2)
2011 7-9 (=)
2012 11-5


As with any statistical breakdown, it is possible to analyze/assess these in any number of ways, so please feel free to do some observation/analysis of your own. I am going to draw no conclusions from the raw data at this point, but as I do have some thoughts about them, I'll weigh in as appropriate as we go in context of discussion.


jay-gruden.jpg

Jay Gruden

2013 3-13 (Redskins)
2014 4-12 (+1)
2015 0-0

 
Last edited:
The win/loss records, while interesting, don't really tell the tale. We really didn't watch the others as closely as we do our own team. Winning/losing happens to every coach. The main quality necessary, IMHO, is leadership. It is in that category, that I believe Gruden failed most miserably last season. I realize we have to judge that from afar, but it sure did seem glaring. He often looked lost. Unable to answer any adversity that popped up. No adjustments to effectively counter the moves of the opposition. We'll find out soon enough if it was simply 1st year jitters/uncertainty/inexperience, or not.

I believe he has the smarts, and the "want to", to get the job done. I am more than willing to accept him stumbling out of the blocks. Providing he shows signs of "getting it", early this season.

And "getting it", is kind of like pornography. I'll know it when I see it.
 
This statistical breakdown is neither statistics nor a breakdown.

Discuss.
 
The win/loss records, while interesting, don't really tell the tale. We really didn't watch the others as closely as we do our own team. Winning/losing happens to every coach.
Absolutely true. We'd have to go in and parse each guy/team on that list to get a sense of the context the new coaches operated in, and probably do a lot of reading on what the buzz was around each of them as they entered their second seasons.

I guess maybe the larger point is that even the best head coaches have uneven starts. For me, anyway, the real assessment of what a coach is likely to become comes in year two--year one.

As to Jay's leadership or lack thereof, I know many here think he's no Mensa candidate (just based on memory, I've seen BGO members call him a moron, a doofus, an idiot, and alter his name to suggest excrement). Some alleged "media" guy called him a fat ass. Personally, I'm less inclined to pay attention to that than I am what little we hear out of the locker room, and to date all I can recall hearing are positives.

Anyway, not here to defend the man at this point--he may or may not turn out to be a decent head coach in the NFL. I just keep coming back to how difficult it is for a rookie head coach to turn a moribund franchise around in a year or even two. Many of the best coaches in NFL history have struggled at least as much as Jay has. I'm going to give him at least two years, maybe three, before starting to come to the kinds of conclusions many have so quickly drawn.

Here's a piece I read this morning that seems appropriate ...

FOOTBALL 2015: After hiccups, Jay Gruden believes he has Redskins on right path - Washington Times
 
This statistical breakdown is neither statistics nor a breakdown.

Discuss.

you're right. it's also a biased sample set (from a technical pov). the general idea is clear: here are some successful coaches. it took 2-3 years before they turned things around.

to me...aside from what we all know (i.e., a successful GM, owner, etc., was also involved).....a big part of the answer (since all coaches don't succeed)....lies in the qualities of the coach himself.

everyone has their own measuring rod. I want him gone soonest possible. I have seen enough.
 
Indeed--a big part of the answer lies in the qualities of the coach himself. Glad that's been pointed out.

To me another "general idea" should be evident too: it is inconsistent with logic--not to mention history--to draw conclusions on how
a coach will fare based on his rookie year.

Which is the reason for the thread. We have all year to track what if any progress seems evident from the product on the field.
 
The best head coaches sometimes struggle. And so do the worst.

I'm glad we've established this.

I think the fundamental problem I have with Chubs Gruden is that in his interviews he sounds like my impression of Jon Gruden (which is awesome, I should add). I feel like our coach may be Ozzie Canseco.

I don't think we want our coach to be Ozzie Canseco.

Anyway, none of this matters. Assuming that Scot is not arrested at some kind of weird Eyes Wide Shut orgy in the next year, he's going to want to hire his own coach. Barring an 11-5 type miracle season, Gruden is gone.
 
Indeed--a big part of the answer lies in the qualities of the coach himself. Glad that's been pointed out.

To me another "general idea" should be evident too: it is inconsistent with logic--not to mention history--to draw conclusions on how
a coach will fare based on his rookie year.

Which is the reason for the thread. We have all year to track what if any progress seems evident from the product on the field.

You need a specific thread designated to tracking the team's progress? Isn't that, like, why the board exists?

Or is this going to be 25 pages of you repeating, "It's hard to tell" over and over again?
 
The proverbial "Yes...but".....LKB was likely noting that there are stats that show FOR ALL COACHES that 2-3 years made no difference or, rather, the probability of failure was high. that's what I meant by a biased sample set. the best one MIGHT draw from this is that coaches destined for success need 2-3 years to overcome the mess they inherited. the source of the success; however, is not determined by time on scene. it lies in other root causes.
 
Two troll posts in one thread, LKB? Pace yourself.
 
The proverbial "Yes...but".....LKB was likely noting that there are stats that show FOR ALL COACHES that 2-3 years made no difference or, rather, the probability of failure was high. that's what I meant by a biased sample set. the best one MIGHT draw from this is that coaches destined for success need 2-3 years to overcome the mess they inherited. the source of the success; however, is not determined by time on scene. it lies in other root causes.
Do some research, brother. Let's see if you're right.

On the red stuff ... I've been suggesting for some time that Gruden may have inherited as big a mess as any coach in NFL history. Do you disagree?
 
Ax' comment about a dearth in leadership is spot on, for me. I saw precious little leadership, and little to no improvement in any aspect of the team that I remain unconvinced Gruden is the answer. But we have him for another year, at least.

Prove me wrong, Jay!
 
Two troll posts in one thread, LKB? Pace yourself.

You post Lombardi's record from Fonzie times and then say, "Eh...probably not helpful."

What am I supposed to do with any of this information?

This is simply a "Gruden: Does he suck or not" thread except you spent two hours on Pro Football Reference first.
 
Ax' comment about a dearth in leadership is spot on, for me. I saw precious little leadership, and little to no improvement in any aspect of the team that I remain unconvinced Gruden is the answer. But we have him for another year, at least.

Prove me wrong, Jay!
Respect due. I saw you say it before I first saw it for myself.

I was looking at the girl in the red dress. :)
 
Irrelevant, but thanks.

I like the guy, he seems genuine and nice. I just don't think he has "it". But I've been wrong before, and certainly will again. Prove it, Jay!
 
By the way, there is an assumption here that good coaches always win and bad coaches always lose - that W/L record is actually any kind of indicator of a coach's skill.

If Butch Davis had been hit by a bus after his second season in Cleveland, Cleveland fans would be talking about how many Super Bowls he would have won them and how Derrick Anderson's career never recovered from the loss.

George Seifert and Tom Flores have multiple Super Bowl rings.

I think there are two or three coaches at the top of the food chain and two or three at the bottom and the rest are all about the same. Gruden would probably be an up and comer if he had been hired in Baltimore. Frankly, Jay is probably about as good as Jon which is to say, "Adequate."

If I'm a GM, I'd rather have the adequate coach I hired than some other adequate coach.
 
You post Lombardi's record from Fonzie times and then say, "Eh...probably not helpful."

What am I supposed to do with any of this information?

This is simply a "Gruden: Does he suck or not" thread except you spent two hours on Pro Football Reference first.
Maybe, just maybe, the posting of the win loss records are to give examples of successful coaches that didn't hit their stride right out of the gate..... Just spitballin here.....
 
You need a specific thread designated to tracking the team's progress? Isn't that, like, why the board exists?

Or is this going to be 25 pages of you repeating, "It's hard to tell" over and over again?

I have a burning question - who the **** do you think YOU are? :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I have a burning question - who the **** do you think YOU are? :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just an average man...except smarter than most and with a larger penis.
 
It's obvious you're no dummy. But a) no one has done anything but welcome you here, and b) there's no reason to be crapping all over someone who took the time to create a thread with some actual #'s (whether you think they mean anything or not). If there is baggage here from former internet excursions elsewhere leave it at the door as you come in please.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)

Help Users
As we enjoy today's conversations, let's remember our dear friends 'Docsandy', Sandy Zier-Teitler, and 'Posse Lover', Michael Huffman, who would dearly love to be here with us today! We love and miss you guys ❤

You haven't joined any rooms.

    You haven't joined any rooms.
    Top