Heading into 2015, one of the hottest storylines surrounding the Redskins has been about Head Coach Jay Gruden, both in terms of his performance as a rookie in 2014, and the expectations for how his team will fare going forward.
It got me to thinking about how other coaches have done in their second seasons. I chose the names to research unscientifically, starting with NFL Mt. Rushmore names I suspect would come to just about any pro football (Lombardi, Noll, Shula, Gibbs, Parcells...) and moving on to a quick mental inventory of today's most successful coaches (Belichick, Carroll, Reid, Tomlin...).
We can use this thread during the 2015 season to discuss the ups and downs of Gruden's performance, gauge what if any progress he and his team are making, and try to get a feel for the direction the Washington Redskins might be heading into 2016 and beyond.
Notes:
Because Pete Carroll and Mike Shanahan had more than one stint as NFL head coaches (and because in Shanahan's case he got fired four games into his second season as head coach of the Raiders) I've put them at the bottom simply because the formatting looks a little goofy.
I did cherry-pick, add or delete any names--I simply pulled names from under my hat until I figured I had enough to throw out there as a meaningful data base. I really do intend for this to be a representative sample, however, so if anyone wants to add other names please feel free to do so.
Here is a sampling of how several prominent head coaches, both historical and current, fared in the transition from their rookie to second seasons. For purposes of this thread, I have listed them in descending order of the best win differential between their rookie and second years.
- Listed first, in italics, are the records of the teams each coach took over the year prior to their arrival.
- Listed second are the records of each coach in their rookie years, noting the win differential over the team they inherited (+, - or =).
- Listed third, bolded, are the records of each coach in their second years, noting the win differential from their rookie years.
- Listed fourth are the records of each coach their third yeasr.
Bill Parcells
1982 4-5 (Giants)
1983 3-12-1 (-1)
1984 9-7 (+6)
1985 10-6
Jimmy Johnson
1988 3-13 (Cowboys)
1989 1-15 (-2)
1990 7-9 (+6)
1991 11-5
Andy Reid
1998 3-13 (Eagles)
1999 5-11 (+2)
2000 11-5 (+6)
2001 11-5
Chuck Noll
1968 2-11-1 (Steelers)
1969 1-13 (-1)
1970 5-9 (+4)
1971 6-8
Bill Walsh
1978 2-14 (49ers)
1979 2-14 (=)
1980 6-10 (+4)
1981 13-3
Mike Tomlin
2006 8-8 (Steelers)
2007 10-6 (+2)
2008 12-4 (+2)
2009 9-7
Vince Lombardi
1958 1-10 (Packers)
1959 7-5 (+6)
1960 8-4 (+1)
1961 11-3
Tom Landry
1960 0-11-1 (expansion)
1961 4-9-1 (+4)
1962 5-8-1 (+1)
Bill Belichick
1990 3-13 (Browns)
1991 6-10 (+3)
1992 7-9 (+1)
1993 7-9
1999 8-8 (Patriots)
2000 5-11 (-3)
2001 11-5 (+6)
2002 9-7
Joe Gibbs
1980 6-10 (Redskins)
1981 8-8 (+2)
1982 8-1 (=, strike-shortened season)
1983 14-2
Jon Harbaugh
2007 5-11 (Ravens)
2008 11-5 (+6)
2009 9-7 (-2)
2010 12-4
Sean Payton
2005 3-13 (Saints)
2006 10-6 (+7)
2007 7-9 (-3)
2008 8-8
Mike Shanahan
1987 5-10 (Raiders)
1988 7-9 (+2)
1989 1-3 (fired)
1994 7-9 (Broncos)
1995 8-8 (+1)
1996 13-3 (+5)
1997 12-4
Pete Carroll
1993 8-8 (Jets)
1994 6-10 (-2)
1996 11-5 (Patriots)
1997 10-6 (-1)
1998 9-7 (-1)
1999 8-8
2009 5-11 (Seahawks)
2010 7-9 (+2)
2011 7-9 (=)
2012 11-5
As with any statistical breakdown, it is possible to analyze/assess these in any number of ways, so please feel free to do some observation/analysis of your own. I am going to draw no conclusions from the raw data at this point, but as I do have some thoughts about them, I'll weigh in as appropriate as we go in context of discussion.
Jay Gruden
2013 3-13 (Redskins)
2014 4-12 (+1)
2015 0-0
It got me to thinking about how other coaches have done in their second seasons. I chose the names to research unscientifically, starting with NFL Mt. Rushmore names I suspect would come to just about any pro football (Lombardi, Noll, Shula, Gibbs, Parcells...) and moving on to a quick mental inventory of today's most successful coaches (Belichick, Carroll, Reid, Tomlin...).
We can use this thread during the 2015 season to discuss the ups and downs of Gruden's performance, gauge what if any progress he and his team are making, and try to get a feel for the direction the Washington Redskins might be heading into 2016 and beyond.
Notes:
Because Pete Carroll and Mike Shanahan had more than one stint as NFL head coaches (and because in Shanahan's case he got fired four games into his second season as head coach of the Raiders) I've put them at the bottom simply because the formatting looks a little goofy.
I did cherry-pick, add or delete any names--I simply pulled names from under my hat until I figured I had enough to throw out there as a meaningful data base. I really do intend for this to be a representative sample, however, so if anyone wants to add other names please feel free to do so.
Here is a sampling of how several prominent head coaches, both historical and current, fared in the transition from their rookie to second seasons. For purposes of this thread, I have listed them in descending order of the best win differential between their rookie and second years.
- Listed first, in italics, are the records of the teams each coach took over the year prior to their arrival.
- Listed second are the records of each coach in their rookie years, noting the win differential over the team they inherited (+, - or =).
- Listed third, bolded, are the records of each coach in their second years, noting the win differential from their rookie years.
- Listed fourth are the records of each coach their third yeasr.
Bill Parcells
1982 4-5 (Giants)
1983 3-12-1 (-1)
1984 9-7 (+6)
1985 10-6
Jimmy Johnson
1988 3-13 (Cowboys)
1989 1-15 (-2)
1990 7-9 (+6)
1991 11-5
Andy Reid
1998 3-13 (Eagles)
1999 5-11 (+2)
2000 11-5 (+6)
2001 11-5
Chuck Noll
1968 2-11-1 (Steelers)
1969 1-13 (-1)
1970 5-9 (+4)
1971 6-8
Bill Walsh
1978 2-14 (49ers)
1979 2-14 (=)
1980 6-10 (+4)
1981 13-3
Mike Tomlin
2006 8-8 (Steelers)
2007 10-6 (+2)
2008 12-4 (+2)
2009 9-7
Vince Lombardi
1958 1-10 (Packers)
1959 7-5 (+6)
1960 8-4 (+1)
1961 11-3
Tom Landry
1960 0-11-1 (expansion)
1961 4-9-1 (+4)
1962 5-8-1 (+1)
Bill Belichick
1990 3-13 (Browns)
1991 6-10 (+3)
1992 7-9 (+1)
1993 7-9
1999 8-8 (Patriots)
2000 5-11 (-3)
2001 11-5 (+6)
2002 9-7
Joe Gibbs
1980 6-10 (Redskins)
1981 8-8 (+2)
1982 8-1 (=, strike-shortened season)
1983 14-2
Jon Harbaugh
2007 5-11 (Ravens)
2008 11-5 (+6)
2009 9-7 (-2)
2010 12-4
Sean Payton
2005 3-13 (Saints)
2006 10-6 (+7)
2007 7-9 (-3)
2008 8-8
Mike Shanahan
1987 5-10 (Raiders)
1988 7-9 (+2)
1989 1-3 (fired)
1994 7-9 (Broncos)
1995 8-8 (+1)
1996 13-3 (+5)
1997 12-4
Pete Carroll
1993 8-8 (Jets)
1994 6-10 (-2)
1996 11-5 (Patriots)
1997 10-6 (-1)
1998 9-7 (-1)
1999 8-8
2009 5-11 (Seahawks)
2010 7-9 (+2)
2011 7-9 (=)
2012 11-5
As with any statistical breakdown, it is possible to analyze/assess these in any number of ways, so please feel free to do some observation/analysis of your own. I am going to draw no conclusions from the raw data at this point, but as I do have some thoughts about them, I'll weigh in as appropriate as we go in context of discussion.
Jay Gruden
2013 3-13 (Redskins)
2014 4-12 (+1)
2015 0-0
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