Last year, we had an easy schedule and I thought 10 wins was in our reach and we only won 4. Here are the reasons being cautiously pessimistic in 2015 is warranted:
Pessimism is a choice, 100% of the time. But, it's everybody's right to do so.
1) We were out-coached in every game except 1... Mostly because Dallas was pretty incompetent and had a poor game plan, not because our coaching staff was great. We improved that coaching staff by adding Callahan, but I'm not certain that adding a Defensive Coordinator whose previous resume includes back-to-back 32nd ranked defenses and 2 of the worst 10 defensive performances in NFL history qualifies as an upgrade (yet).
No argument on being out-coached, last year. Choosing to believe it's not gonna be any better THIS year, is your prerogative.
Just as choosing to believe it was a 1st year coach's growing pains, with certain improvement to come, is mine.
2) We have a tough schedule
100% speculation. Nobody, as in, nobody, can definitively predict which teams will be good, bad, or injury riddled, on any given week. We can guess, but that's all it is, is a guess. Calling it "easy" is a setup for further ridicule, after the fact, should the team lose.
3) Less certainty at QB... There was hope last year with Gruden being the QB guru and Robert being the franchise QB
Again, your choice to believe there's "less certainty". It could be argued that there is more certainty. It could be argued that it's the same. We choose what we want to believe, based on our own opinions of the way things are.
4) The one guy (McCloughan) who makes me optimistic for the future says we're still 2-3 years away... Why? Because if you think about this team's areas of weakness: QB, Pass Rusher, OL & DB... those areas are still a concern.
The team is better, but I do believe we're 2-3 years of McCloughan moves away still and we need a better coaching staff.
Being 2-3 years away from what he ultimately wants the team do be, does not prevent success from happening in the meantime. Choosing to believe we can have success, while continuing to improve the roster, coaches, etc..., is just as easy, and possible, as choosing the opposite.