Post Article: Redskins & RGIII 5th year option

To my mind, this team is in too much flux to make any predictions about what kind of scoring average either side of the ball will need to achieve in order for the team to win. Or even what they could or should end up with. It's a new defense, under new command, with a ton of new key personnel. It's an offense hugely dependent on the play of a quarterback position that remains a complete question mark at this point. It's a coaching staff with new key personnel, and a head coach heading into Year Two, when one can realistically expect to start seeing indications whether his brand is "taking" with the team or not.

Not trying to be argumentative. Just thinking that this team, given the changes noted already AND the dramatic turn taken by addition of a legit general manager, this team is as big a question mark top to bottom heading into a season as any I can remember in a while. It's always hard to be patient once the games start---losses hurt even when they come as no surprise. But my only real expectation heading into 2015 is to head out of it feeling like we're better than we were in 2014, and that the key elements show promise of being on the right path.

Agreed there was a lot of factors that went into our record last year like injuries and musical QB's. You can't get anything going with a rookie head coach for those factors alone. I expect this year will be different. Different in that we'll get a much better read on Robert and Jay's offense this year, if we have some stability at quarterback.

But I lean heavily on points and production as being the key places to look for success. Production doesn't mean points, but we can improve the scoring average by performing and producing in the redzone. There are ways to increase the average and its going to have to come from better play calling, game planning and player execution. Again, that's Jay and Robert. Back in the Jason Campbell days, I won several Redskins record pickem contests, including two at Warpath Mag. How I basically did it was estimate the scoring average and if true, it will give you the won/loss record. In other words, 16-18 points is giving you a record of 4-6 wins. Higher average will yield higher wins. not rocket science here. The Campbell days revealed this to me. So if you want to improve your record, you improve your scoring average by focusing on those things that are holding it back, redzone, 3rd down conversions, turnover ratio, etc. And I haven't even mentioned anything about adding new offensive players, which we haven't. So you see where I'm coming from. I'm counting on Jay and Robert to make it happen and the sooner they learn to like each other the better. I'm all in.

I know much of what I say is repetitive, but I think statements in the thread need to be readdressed...

The reason that Robert says he isn't bothered about the 5th year option and that it's all about this year is because the 5th year option is worth "potentially" only $16M, but the Franchise Tag in 2016 will be worth around $22M... He gains about $6M if plays well. If he doesn't play well, he most likely becomes a free agent under any scenario, and THEN his value is only determined by his perceived value to other teams. Right now, his value is mostly determined by the 5th year option and the 2016 Franchise tag.

Robert and his agents do not have the leverage to ask for anything over $16M guaranteed in 2016 (bonus + salary) under the 5th year option... If the Redskins do not exercise the 5th year option & he plays well, Robert and his agents will have the leverage to ask for $22M (or whatever the FT for QB is in 2016). Let's say they just FT him and he plays out the contract as an FT, the following year they will be in a similar situation, but the leverage jumps another 20% (or the value of the FT for QB, whichever is higher) to $26.4M. The contract that is worked between Robert's agents and the Redskins will be multiple years, but how those years are structured and when the Redskins can get out of the agreement is important. IF Robert plays well in 2015, his agent could argue playing 2 years under the franchise tag would mean $48.4M in the first 2 years and therefore the contract should reflect close to that. The team would have leverage in that a new contract would provide some security for the oft-injured QB, but the agents could argue the deal would provide additional salary cap relief over 2 years & $48.4M tied up in one player. It's all very complex... and it's important to have all the leverage you possibly can going into 2016, and that's why I argue the 5th year option for RGIII is the way to go...

What do you all think about this scenario? You are GM & do not exercise the 5th year option... Robert does a really good job & stays healthy, are you going to want to tell the owner of the team that you have to FT him at $22M, risk losing him, or risk losing another valuable player because you can only FT 1 guy? Regardless, I think Scot is going to need a drink after this decision in 10 days or so...

So, you say that if we pick up the option, we could cut him before next March, barring injury, and the contract isn't guaranteed. But would it include a cap hit, and how much would it be?

Also, even if we do pick up the option, a repeat of his rookie year will bring on another contract, before next season, to try and bring the cap number down. And it won't be any bigger than if we don't pick up the option.

If he simply shows enough progress to warrant keeping him for further development, he won't approach franchise tag numbers. And if he tries to demand top dollar, for middle of the road performance, then you show him the door, and keep moving forward.

Ax said:

So, you say that if we pick up the option, we could cut him before next March, barring injury, and the contract isn't guaranteed. But would it include a cap hit, and how much would it be?

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As I understand it, the 2016 salary would become fully guaranteed "for injury" at the start of the league year in March 2016... It becomes fully guaranteed "for skill" if he's on the opening day roster at the start of the season. So there would be no dead money if he is released prior to that date even if we do exercise the 5th year option next week. He still would have to earn it in 2015 if we pick up the option or not...

Ax said:

Also, even if we do pick up the option, a repeat of his rookie year will bring on another contract, before next season, to try and bring the cap number down. And it won't be any bigger than if we don't pick up the option.

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I believe that if we don't pick up the option his contract would be much larger than if we do (at least in the 1st few years). The team loses leverage and the contract value would be based on next year's franchise QB number (potentially a few million over $20M) and not this current year's transition QB number ($16M). You have to think, if he stays with the Redskins, he is due this money. It's not debatable, so one way or another (bonus/salary in a reworked deal, franchise tag, or 5th year option) he will receive this money. The only way he receives less is if he becomes a FA and the market determines his value to be less.

Ax said:

If he simply shows enough progress to warrant keeping him for further development, he won't approach franchise tag numbers. And if he tries to demand top dollar, for middle of the road performance, then you show him the door, and keep moving forward.

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Yep... Either way, if he sucks we can cut him. Only possible "benefit" to not signing 5th year option is you "might" get a 3rd round compensatory pick in the scenario where he walks as a FA... assuming we don't sign a FA of equivalent value.

Anyway, Scot M is on record as saying we don't give up on a young developing QB... we'll see if he considers RGIII to be young and developing next week. I agree that you don't give him the 5th year option if he won't be part of your plans going forward, but if there is a chance you need to exercise that right after the draft.

What I don't like about the whole scenario is that we sign the option, then its cut or $16M. I don't want to be forced into that either or decision with cut or $16m being the either or choice. I think I understand even if we don't cut him we can renegotiate? is that right, am I missing something? As a GM I would want to negotiate his value during 2015, i.e. sign him to long term if he proves himself. That's old school, but is that not an option?

I guess I am reluctant to signing something that leaves us with two bad choices, cut him or overpay him. (assuming he remains status quo).

Same opportunity to renegotiate with 5th year option as you have without it... To me, it's either:
1) trade now
2) cut in 2016
3) 5th year option & either renegotiate or cut in 2016. I don't see him counting as $16M on cap in 2016, so if they like him they work a deal before March 2016.
4) no 5th year option and most likely let him walk in FA (because it's less likely you're going to negotiate with someone you would owe $21M)... Might get a compensatory pick in this scenario.

Robert would have to exceed all expectations & be worth $21M for it to work out without 5th year option, IMO.

I don't want to see the team exercise the option both because it is a risk but also because I want to see how Robert treats an 'all or nothing' season and the adversity/potential opportunity that brings with it.

Ever since he got drafted the team and owner have been trying to soften the blows of watching Griffin grow up and mature as an NFL player.

But everyone has to go through their own crucible of fire to a better future. You can't do it for them.

We need to be supporters, but not enablers.

Bulldog's Twin said:

I don't want to see the team exercise the option both because it is a risk but also because I want to see how Robert treats an 'all or nothing' season and the adversity/potential opportunity that brings with it.

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You realize it will be an "all or nothing" season for RGIII with or without the 5th year option? If he doesn't perform, he doesn't make a cent of the $16M in 2016 even if the team does pick up the 5th year option. If he performs well enough, you can still negotiate a long term deal that spreads the cap-hit out over many years & you don't have the franchise tag looming over the horizon to impact contract negotiations. Really, you want the Redskins to give up all their leverage with Robert? That's how you want it?

This pretty much throws out drafting a qb here, IMO. At least this year.

If Vinnie was still running the show, I'd agree. But if Scot gets good value, I have a feeling he will take it, regardless of position.

My feeling is that if Robert does "OK" at least half of this year, then I say we should keep him. But not at the $16M mark. If he can earn more that what Redskis would be willing to pay, then he moves on. Otherwise we keep him for what he's worth to us.

It's all a "SmootPoint" now, since the team has announced it will exercise the option. Only issue is injury, but that's a risk with any starting QB... He'd have to have another catastrophic injury that would wipe out the end of 2015 & not be able to recover prior to March 2016 in order for this to be a bad move. Anyway, the Redskins control his rights for 2016 and they have leverage for contract negotiations going forward. Leverage at $16M is better than leverage at $22M...

gotta hand it to McL....he's a professional. it'll be interesting to see how he and Gruden work together over the next couple years. hopefully...as a team.

Definitely the first big red flag I've seen from him. I don't see the reward being anywhere near the risk to make such a move.

But....we'll see how it plays out.

If RG3 goes down hard again this season, and we're on the hook for $16 million next year (about the same as what the Mara penalties did to us) you'll know exactly why we'll suck next year. Because of this decision.

Very risky. Hoping this isn't a crucial mistake.

It's gonna look even better when he doesn't pick up a qb and those of us who said Griffin would start get to make our own threads saying "I told you so", right?

I think they pick up the option.

Henry said:

I think they pick up the option.

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Are you basing that on anything, or just pulling it out of your ass?

Please not the ass. Please not the ass.

All McLoughan said was we were picking up Griffin's 5th year option. I have a feeling McLoughan is pulling a "read option" on Griffin. He probably has couple plans in place depending on how Griffin does this year. It is very possible that if right offer came a long...he would ship Griffin off.

Right now you can't take anyone's words verbatim.