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    Default Severe/Interesting/Unique Weather Thread

    The winter threads are fun, but a broader thread is needed. Weather happens every single day and some of it is pretty wild. Feel free to give your input and updates when warranted.
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    We've had about five to ten inches of rain in the mid south since last night. Flood watches/warnings are about to finally expire. Lots of road closures (most are re-opened by now) and a few accidents.
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    Many of the computer models are showing a new tropical system developing just offshore of Florida in a couple of days. It could head up the east coast and pass over or near the OBX and Virginia Beach. Inland NC, Virginia, and the Delmarva could receive heavy rains from this system later in the week.
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    how much later? I'm drivin up to DC for my 40 year HS reunion at the end of the week.

    man...theres a lot of PI in just those two sentences. see how easy it can be?!!!!
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    40?!!!! My gosh..what was Lincoln like as president? Lol
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    Ha, I was just teasing a coworker about having his appraisal written on stone tablet.
    Last edited by Win4us; 06-30-14 at 02:13 AM.
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    “A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.” - George Patton

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    Invest 91 will have a name very soon - perhaps by later this morning. As it reaches tropical storm status, it will move up the east coast and should become a minimal hurricane by later in the day on Thursday.

    It should pass over the OBX on early Friday morning and just off the coast of Virginia Beach by mid day. Heavy rains will come with "Arthur" and will spread inland over NC, VA, and the Delmarva on Thursday and the first half of Friday. The storm will continue out to sea at that juncture and should have no effect on the northeast - other than dangerous surf/riptides.

    More info to come as we go along.
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    Mike Wise HATE'r

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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgundy Burner View Post
    Invest 91 will have a name very soon - perhaps by later this morning. As it reaches tropical storm status, it will move up the east coast and should become a minimal hurricane by later in the day on Thursday.

    It should pass over the OBX on early Friday morning and just off the coast of Virginia Beach by mid day. Heavy rains will come with "Arthur" and will spread inland over NC, VA, and the Delmarva on Thursday and the first half of Friday. The storm will continue out to sea at that juncture and should have no effect on the northeast - other than dangerous surf/riptides.

    More info to come as we go along.

    I got up at 530 to washdown the boat today and it was cold in Fort Lauderdale! Usually need to get that done before 11am! Love that this one has brought us some cool weather!!! Nice break from the heat lately. Hope she stays just off the coast and pumps waves to my friends up the east coast!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boone View Post
    It'll be progress and success on the field that gets me excited.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeSr619 View Post
    40?!!!! My gosh..what was Lincoln like as president? Lol
    better than present alternatives!
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    Arthur is now a minimal hurricane and should pass over the lower OBX by late tonight and early Friday. Hurricane warnings are posted for most of coastal North Carolina. South Carolina should have all watches and warnings lifted by mid day or late afternoon. Coastal Virginia from Virginia Beach to Cape Charles (including the lower Chesapeake Bay) is under a tropical storm warning.

    By late Friday, Arthur will be exiting the mid Atlantic coastline and head for Nova Scotia and coastal Newfoundland. By then, it will be a strong extra-tropical system.
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    Arthur is trudging along and the winds are clocking in at about 90 mph. The press has dropped just three MB in the last six hours, so this could indicate that it has reached a maximum strength. That is not set in stone, but this is just an observation over the last several hours.

    No real changes in the direction is anticipated. Arthur is behaving pretty much as expected when we started to look at it a few days ago.

    For those in the northeast and portions of the mid Atlantic where flood watches are posted, please heed these warnings. A stalled frontal system will interact with Arthur to a certain degree and could bring very heavy rain bands in localized areas.
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    You guys in the southeast be careful with those named storms, damn things are powerful & dangerous.

    On another note we're visiting outlaws in MN and sweet baby Jeebus it's humid. AK has spoiled us with its 50ish% humidity. Yesterday was 3rd ring of hell kind of hot here.
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    “A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.” - George Patton

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    More bad news for Japan.....hope this misses the leaky plants

    Super Typhoon Neoguri: Okinawa, Japan in Path of Strongest Typhoon So Far in 2014
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    The eastern two-thirds of the nation has been getting a strong taste of fall the last few days. Here in the Memphis area, Friday and Saturday had highs only in the 60s - unheard of for this time of year. It reminds me of July when this area had temps in the 70s for many days that month - it was simply wonderful.

    Temps will return to just below normal or near normal for most areas east of the Rockies this coming week. A hurricane out in the Atlantic will stay well out to sea and will only be a threat to shipping interests.

    And now some good news - potentially for California and the desert southwest. Hurricane Odile is a powerful Cat 4 in the Pacific. It will lose tropical characteristics by later in the week, but it could send heavier rains to southern California, Las Vegas, and the four corners region. I'm not saying this will happen with 100% certainty, but the chances are better than average for now. Southern California badly needs the rain and places like Lake Mead could get needed moisture too. Pray that it happens.

    I'll try to have the winter forecast posted by mid November. For now, there is a lot of uncertainty about the winter season. Last year, El Nino was expected to arrive by early spring and it didn't happen. In May, the prediction was switched to September and we still have no El Nino. It's baffling, but now it may not arrive at all or in a very weakened condition by January. Talk about frustrating! However, the forecast will still be posted before we carve the turkey dinner and to be honest, confidence in the forecast this year remains low.
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    Cabo is about to go underwater in the next few hours, with a Katrina-like storm
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    You damned Northerners left some of your Arctic air on my doorstep this morning.
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    victrix causa deis placuit sed victa Catoni.

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    Winter Weather Outlook, 2014-2015

    Welcome to the winter season (well, it is almost here) and it is that time again when a forecast is put forth. How did we do last year? In the eastern two-thirds of the nation it was quite accurate. Snow totals came in close to predictions for many areas and others had a bit more/less than forecasted. The weather patterns were pretty much as predicted and while that is good for a little chest thumping, it means nothing now with a new season upon us. Your positive comments were certainly appreciated and the suggestions you put forth were taken into serious consideration. To be honest, we missed horribly on the forecast for California and missed somewhat on the Northwest. That is a record to improve on in the future.

    Unlike forecasts of yesteryear, there will be no maps or major explanations of how the various oscillations and jet streams will affect your region. Ill keep it simple and try to give an easy to understand forecast. Keep in mind that trying to proffer a prognostication for an entire season across all regions is tricky, but the technology continues to improve each year. When looking to last year, the confidence in our forecast was at 80%. This year, the forecast confidence ranges at no more than 30%. An expected weak to moderate El Nino has not developed (expected by last March, then May, then September now expected in January) as we had forecasted, but the weather always teaches us a lesson. It will do as it prefers and we can only predict with a measured degree of certainty. With that in mind, lets get to the forecasts for each region, including yours.

    New England:
    New England winters can be harsh and very snowy. That was obviously the case last year, but this winter will see better conditions. Snowfalls will be slightly above average and there is a potential for one larger storm in mid to late January. Temperatures will be normal for the most part, but two three colder spells could envelope the region in the second half of winter, but not as harsh as last season.

    Mid Atlantic - Northeast (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New York):
    The Mid Atlantic-Northeast region will see slightly above snowfall and near normal temps this winter. A late January or early February snowstorm is possible - eighteen inches or more cant be ruled out, but confidence in such a system is only 50%. One or two colder spells are possible in January and February, but will be short in duration.

    Mid Atlantic Southeast (Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, East Tennessee, Great Smoky Mountains, Blue Ridge):
    Normal temperatures will be the standard this winter for coastal sections and slightly lower than normal snowfall is predicted. One ice storm in mid to late January is possible, but confidence in such a forecast is only 30%. For inland areas, temps will be near normal and snowfalls will be slightly above the norm. A heavier snowfall event is possible in early to mid February.

    Southeast, Florida Peninsula, Gulf Coast:
    If you want to escape the cold and snow this winter, Florida is the place for you, but that is generally true for most years. Temperatures in this region will be above average for the entire winter. The potential for any tornadic activity is minimal to just under the average and a couple of potent systems in the second half of winter cant be rule out. Precipitation will be near normal for the entire winter with one chance for an ice/snow event for inland South Carolina, central Georgia, and central Alabama. A small chance exists for a minor ice event along the Gulf Coast region by late January to mid February.

    Lower Mississippi Valley (North Georgia, North Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Central Kentucky):
    The lower Mississippi Valley will be something of a battle ground for winter storms to the north and southern systems along the Gulf. Three or four snowfalls are possible in the second half of winter with one ice storm looming as a possibility. Temps will be at or close to normal, but two colder spells in January and February may occur, albeit in short duration. Colder rains are likely at times, but some will come with a mixture of snow or sleet. Precipitation will be near normal or slightly above average. A late winter tornadic system is possible.

    Mid South (West Tennessee, Northern Mississippi, Eastern Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, Northeast Louisiana):
    The mid south will have near normal temperatures this winter, but two cold periods in January and February are possible. Precipitation will be near normal with a few chilly rains and a chance for around four ice storms/events. One possible snowfall comes in mid to late January. Tornadic activity will be below average, but two systems are possible later in the season, especially in the central and southern sections of this forecast region.

    Heartland (Missouri, Southern Iowa, Eastern Kansas, Northwest Arkansas, Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Northeast Oklahoma):
    Normality rules the forecast for this winter season in the nations heartland. Near normal temps and near normal precipitation is the forecast. One colder spell in the first half of the season is possible and an additional two for the second half. Three snowfalls are predicted for the more northern and central sections with one ice storm late in the season. Southern sections of this forecast region could see two snowfalls and one ice event. A tornadic system is a possibility late in the season.

    Great Lakes, Midwest, Upper Mississippi Valley:
    Winter for this region will be a welcomed sight after last years bitter coldness. Temps will range from normal to slightly above for most of the winter, but a few cold spells will mix in at various intervals. Snowfalls will be slightly below the seasonal averages, but a larger lake effect or two cant be ruled out for most areas. In the more southern portions of this forecast area, we cant rule out a larger snowstorm in late January or early February.

    Southern Plains, Southwest:
    This region will see temperatures a bit below average for much of the season. However, there can be two or three brief warm periods of a few days during the second half of winter. Precipitation will be slightly above average for the entire forecast area. As many as five ice storms could plague the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and places like Austin and Waco may see three or four ice storms this season. In the more northern sections like OKC, Amarillo, Tulsa, and Wichita Falls, two or three snowfalls with one or two ice storms could occur - same story for El Paso and areas nearby. The mountains of Arizona and New Mexico could see abundant snowfalls and a stellar ski season. Phoenix, Tucson, and Albuquerque could see a light snowfall or a minor ice event.

    Northern Plains:
    For those living in the Northern Plains, you will get a reprieve this winter. It may seem silly to say as this region was socked by a late fall storm earlier this week. Temps will be a bit above normal this season, but a couple of brief polar breakouts cant be ruled out. Snowfalls will be below average, but one larger storm in late January is possible.

    Northern Rockies, Central Rockies, Southern Rockies, Front Range, Ski Resorts:
    Temperatures will be about average and the snowfalls will be plentiful. Denver, Colorado Springs, Cheyenne, and Casper could be in the crosshairs several sizable snowstorms this season. The potential for a great skiing season in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho is forecasted. Ski season could extend well into April and the possibility for an early May snowstorm exists in the aforementioned cities.

    West Coast (California, Lake Tahoe Region, Las Vegas Region):
    Normal temps and above normal precipitation is expected for the northern two-thirds of California this winter. It will not be a drought buster, but it could put a major dent in it. Fire hazards will be minimal to non-existent. The ski resorts will have a very good season, especially the Tahoe area. Southern California will see the drought continueif. The if is predicated on the lack of an El Nino. If El Nino appears as expected in January, then the second half of winter could be slightly above average with much needed moisture. A Pineapple Express is not expected, but it cant be ruled out entirely. Santa Ana winds could make a couple of appearances for the second half of winter with fire possibilities remaining at just above average.

    Pacific Northwest:
    Temperatures will be above average for most of the winter and precipitation will be a bit below average. The ski resorts will have a decent season, but nothing like their counterparts in the Rockies. Lower elevations in Oregon and Washington should see the rainy season peaking more in the first two-thirds of winter. The latter part of winter will be a bit drier, but a couple of bigger storms coming out of the Gulf of Alaska cant be ruled out. Further inland toward Spokane, Pullman, Walla Walla, and Pendleton, it will be slightly warmer than average with snowfalls close to normal.

    There is your winter weather forecast for 2014-2015. Stay up to date with your local weather office and local broadcasters for upcoming storms and weather systems in your area. When warranted, I will post messages here and on Facebook as needed. See you as we go along.
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    we all know were screwed down here in So Cal....I'm over the constant 70 degree weather and no rain at all. It sounds like I am complaining but there is rarely any fluctuation to it (unless warmer), you get barely any rain, no thunder and lightning, no snow, no real wind...its just "weather"
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  19. #19

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    I keep hoping that the El Nino will kick in and bring some rains to the region in the second half of winter. I really want to predict such a forecast, but we won't know until it actually develops. On its heels, it would be great to see a Pineapple Express. Just hoping is the best for now.
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    The simplicity in me is complicated.
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  20. #20
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    You guys are being awfully stingy with the snow this year. My snow blower is sad at the moment. It's literally only snowed like 1-1/2" so far....in freakin Alaska!
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    “A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.” - George Patton

 

 

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