A Burgundy and Gold Obsession
'Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.' - Groucho Marx

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  1. #21

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    And still, if QE3, otherwise known as, flooding the market with monopoly money, ended today, we'd be in the crapper inside of 90 days.

    But, as long as the printer don't break,
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  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by burgold View Post
    Everyone is so locked into their own self interest right now that real progress is impossible. It's more pleasant to avoid or point fingers.
    value laden editorializing.

    real message: "folks don't agree with what I consider important"

    next.
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    cool! care to bet the farm against substantive progress?

    nothing is being done to fix uncontrolled spending.

    Ax is correct about the looming time bomb of an inflated currency.

    Obamacare's real tax impacts start in 2014.

    Watch what happens in the Middle East. the trends are not good. same for north Korea.

    Europe is stagnant (one reason for temporary growth in domestic businesses).

    Asia is not growing as projected.

    Analysis of job growth is superficial: what jobs, in which markets, at what salaries.

    What about other leading indicators? for example, commodity prices.

    No consequences from the scandalous behaviors of this administration?

    there are other factors to consider. for example, if this amnesty bill passes.
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  4. #24

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    George Mason

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    Commodity prices are leading indicators?
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    George Mason

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ax View Post
    And still, if QE3, otherwise known as, flooding the market with monopoly money, ended today, we'd be in the crapper inside of 90 days.

    But, as long as the printer don't break,
    Well, it sounds like it is ending. So i guess we'll get to see.

    Edit: I guess it's not ending until December, so we'll have to wait a few more months.
    Last edited by tshile; 06-19-13 at 07:13 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by tshile View Post
    Commodity prices are leading indicators?
    yes...certain core products like copper and other materials with uses in industries like housing, automobile manufacturing, etc.
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  7. #27

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    George Mason

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    right but aren't commodities subject to intense speculation and manipulated by that speculation?

    it seems to me the only thing they track well with is irrational investing behaviors.

    why is gold falling then? the articles i read suggest it's because the economy is improving and fears are finally going away. i assume you have a different theory? i seem to recall you saying investors flee to gold when they are worried, so if they're dumping gold is the opposite true?

    i don't usual pay much attention to it i just read the articles, but I thought I'd ask since you're saying commodities are indicators.
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  8. #28

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    The home building business is not the best indicator of economic progress. How many of those "new" homes have been sitting there for the last five years or so? How many were sitting there in an unfinished state for the last five years?

    Better indicator? Try the lumber industry. That will give you the best indication of how the building business is going. So, how is the lumber business doing? Eh, can you say "in the crapper"?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgundy Burner View Post
    The home building business is not the best indicator of economic progress. How many of those "new" homes have been sitting there for the last five years or so? How many were sitting there in an unfinished state for the last five years?

    Better indicator? Try the lumber industry. That will give you the best indication of how the building business is going. So, how is the lumber business doing? Eh, can you say "in the crapper"?
    you got the idea I was trying to get across!
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  10. #30
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    this is why you dont celebrate until a few months later. They typically revise down and rarely ever revise up. They play the "Animal Spirits" game quite well

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100845284

    U.S. economic growth was more tepid than previously estimated in the first quarter, held back by a moderate pace of consumer spending, weak business investment and declining exports.
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  11. #31

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    George Mason

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    Eh. Consumer spending is up, consumer debt is down, local/state debt is down, construction is up, investors are increasingly leaving 'safe havens' used during times of fear/uncertainty, there's more.

    It just depends on what indicators you're looking for, or for some people (on both sides, as always) what narrative you're trying to support.

    That report doesn't concern me in the slightest. Like I said in the OP, none of this is to say things are super awesome right now, just that we're finally on the uptick. Things will probably not be significantly better until 2014, maybe even early 2015 (i hope not :\) Until then I expect many reports like the one you cite, and plenty of ammo for the naysayers.
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  12. #32

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    Business will always figure out how to work within the constraints of government.

    Even Obama can't keep the economy down forever. Without his administrations fumbling and bumbling policies, we'd be rockin' by now. As it is, it's a slow crawl, on thin ice.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ax View Post
    Business will always figure out how to work within the constraints of government.

    Even Obama can't keep the economy down forever. Without his administrations fumbling and bumbling policies, we'd be rockin' by now. As it is, it's a slow crawl, on thin ice.
    we will be staring Brazillian like riots in the fcae with-in a few years.

    the fundamental problems are not being fixed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    we will be staring Brazillian like riots in the fcae with-in a few years.

    the fundamental problems are not being fixed.
    Yeah, but at least the oceans will start to stop rising.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ax View Post
    Yeah, but at least the oceans will start to stop rising.
    yea! and the coal we are burning less of - while exports increase? well...we're gonna solve that problem! cuz we're really good people and we have the best science going!!! too bad for the developing nations over-seas - we'll send more money to em...cuz we're just really, really good people. we just wanna be loved. and we just wanna spend our lives working for the village!
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  16. #36

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    George Mason

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    jobs report today indicated 195k jobs were added, also revised previous month's figures up by 70k.
    analysts were expecting 160k jobs, the extra 35k came unexpectedly from hospitality, leisure, professional and business services, and retail trade.

    manufacturing and federal government employment are down.

    unemployment sitting flat at 7.557%
    employment-to-population ratio is up 1/10 of a point to 58.7%
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    anyone notice the BILLIONS in bond sell offs when bernanke hinted at a pullback in Fed QE actions? the FOMC had to clean up his slip in truth-telling.

    it will be ugly.
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    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/...ntcmp=HPBucket
    .........
    The economy is as sick today as it was prior to the financial crisis and Great Recession. Those were caused by fundamental dysfunctions that remain unfixed.
    .........
    During the Bush prosperity, China printed yuan to purchase dollars and U.S. securities. Those drove down interest rates on bank loans and mortgages, helping bankers trade in derivatives, inflate housing prices and keep consumers piling up debt until the house of cards collapsed.

    Nowadays, the Fed helps Beijing pass out the drugs. It buys $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage backed securities each month. Those finance Wall Street speculators in the housing marketing and another epidemic of derivatives trading.

    Sooner or later the new housing and derivatives bubbles will pop, and America will be back in the soup—but it will be a lot hotter this time.
    .........
    The Fed’s printing press is propping up an already anemic economy. Since October, GDP growth has barely averaged 1 percent.
    .........
    In 2016, voters in economic crisis will be much more receptive to Hilary Clinton than a Republican preaching personal responsibility and limited government.

    Democrats will scapegoat Wall Street, and the left’s long-awaited socialist paradise will be at hand

    Remember socialism—the system that makes everyone equally miserable.
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  20. #40

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    So is the opinion section on FOX so biased THEY don't even post it on their regular news sections?
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