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Random Commanders Thoughts

While there have certainly been plenty of great examples of the adage 'Defense wins championships', what makes a winning franchise is the culmination of so many factors, I doubt that the background of the head coach himself is even in the top 100. One can not even assume that because a head coach has a background as a defensive coordinator, that his team will heavily reflect that background in terms of talent acquisition, focus, and success. How many would argue that the key to the Patriots success over the years has been their defense? One might even argue that it's the teams who hire super capable coordinators, and who stay out of their way, have the greatest chance for success.

It's an interesting topic though. I looked around to see if anyone keeps stats on winning %'s or playoff records of head coaches based on offensive or defensive background, but haven't found anything definitive.

In terms of this year's 4 finalists, here's where they ranked in terms of offense and defense this season:

Patriots:
Yards Offense: 1st
Points Scored Offense: 2nd
Yards Defense: 29th
Points Against Defense: 5th

Vikings:
Yards Offense: 11th
Points Scored Offense: 10th
Yards Defense: 1st
Points Against Defense: 1st

Jaguars:
Yards Offense: 6th
Points Scored Offense: 5th
Yards Defense: 2nd
Points Against Defense: 2nd

Eagles:
Yards Offense: 7th
Points Scored Offense: 3rd
Yards Defense: 4th
Points Against Defense: 4th
 
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I think it's also worthy of note, to distinguish the technical difference between the argument of hiring a "defensive-minded head coach", and "building a defense that wins championships".

The former is strictly in regards to who you choose to hire as a HC, and their background, and nothing more.
The latter involves so much more, such as who you hire as DC, the system, the defensive priority of players you draft and sign, the scouting, the management and including the end result of defensive statistics.
 
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Here's an idea for Offensive Coordinator : Kevin Stefanski, QB coach of the Vikings.
Guy must be an offensive genius, to be behind the total transformation of Keenum.
But with Shurmur likely leaving for a HC gig, I bet you the Vikings promote Stefanski.
 
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If he's stuck with Colt McCoy as his starting QB next year, then it's a guaranteed, stone cold lead pipe lock we miss the playoffs and Gruden's fired.

I disagree it's a given if Colt's at the helm with a good prospect sitting behind. It may force Jay to run more as well.

Schottenheimer?

(who we should have kept)

Wow, completely forgot about Marty. Had the team playing pretty good in the 2nd half of the season!
 
Thing is - Colt's only had 1 season with the Browns where he got extensive playing time (12 or 13 games?). He was like 4-9 or something, completed less than 60% of his passes, and threw nearly as many INTs as TDs. But he was a 2nd year QB - a rookie starter really.

In his live action with the Skins, he's looked pretty good. He's got a limited arm - so I'd never argue he's a long-term starter. But I think he can play, and he sure as hell knows Gruden's system. Not sure I agree going with Colt for a year or two while we groom a long-term guy would be a complete disaster? The logic there is, well - Kirk is pretty good, and that only got us to mediocre. If Colt is a lesser QB (and he is), then disaster is a certainty. Problem I have with that logic is that Kirk may be pretty good - but 'great Kirk' hasn't shown up often enough to get us consistently past .500. The lack of playoff appearances is as much on Kirk's not showing up consistently as the being somewhat more competitive is due to his occasional great games.

McCoy does not have Cousins talent. But he may prove to be a lot more consistent.

It doesn't matter what we think. McCoy may be the guy for awhile if we decide not to enter the QB draft sweepstakes. Everyone assumes we'll bring in a QB one way or another. But who knows. Maybe we don't.
 
Another way to look at it is would Colt or even Kirk for that matter could excel in a more balanced offense? There's games the last few seasons where the opposing side KNOWS it's gonna be little to no rushes.

The qb drives the offense no doubt, but a solid ground game and mixing in play action will do wonders for even meh qb's.

BTW, Colt's got plenty of arm. Not ‘dragon' strong but good enough.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JaeK2ggATv4
 
<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Do you need a superstar at QB to win it all? <a href="https://twitter.com/PatKirwanRFN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PatKirwanRFN</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/JimMiller_NFL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JimMiller_NFL</a> discuss the 4 remaining QB's in the playoffs and what people in the league are saying about it:<br><br>** Audio ** <a href="https://t.co/YQJmCX7h5v">pic.twitter.com/YQJmCX7h5v</a></p>— SiriusXM NFL Radio (@SiriusXMNFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/SiriusXMNFL/status/953751107246985216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Question is- can a team get by with an upper mid-tier qb paying him top of the position money?
 
I don't know how many holes the Skins have to fill personnel wise on offense. If Long comes back, maybe he goes to LG & leave Chase @ Center. The Skins ran most effectively outside the tackles, a little better OLine, that helps getting through the gut more often. They still don't have a 3-down back but NO did pretty well using 2 backs. A lot of 'ifs'. A big hole they have to figure out - the NFC East owned the Redskin passing game and other teams will take notice.

6 division games, roughly a 3rd of the season. Against the East and on the year plus the other 10 games.
9 int's against the East. 13 on the season. 4 in 10 other games.
5 fumbles against the division. 10 on the season. 5 in 10 other games.
25 sacks against the NFC East, 41 on the season. 16 in the other 10 games.

They also were only 1-5 in the East, leaving 6-4 against the rest of the league. 1 & 5 against all playoff teams so room for improvement.

Those other 10 games look pretty good on offense even with the injury issues. Division games are tougher but shouldn't Washington get some benefit there also, at least a bit? Jay is getting out coached by Filty, Dallast & the Gnats. Maybe you want to hang some of that on the defense (after all, the team did give up 30+ points in 4 of those 6 games but not all of that scoring given up by the D either) and maybe some on injuries - whatever but the offense didn't match up with 30 points in any of those 6 games. In fact they only scored 20 or more points twice. Can only come up with so many excuses as to why your division can sus out your offense/passing game compared to the rest of the league.

Put _______ @ QB. I don't see an improvement. Throwing out the dumpster fire Jay inherited his 1st year against the East, the last 3; 1-5 (2017), 3-3 (2016) & 4-2 (2015). Obviously, Jay could admit to needing help in the play calling. OK, leaving Oz in the rear view mirror, don't see it happening...
 
Whatever we do, we need to keep a laser focus on the lines.

To me, we need to either draft Vita Vea (who's being described as a faster,more athletic Haloti Ngata)and set him beside Allen and Ioannidis

OR

Draft Quentin Nelson(if he's there at 13) and put him at LG and watch our run game grow.

Need to get back to being able to push other teams around instead of being a finesse team and that starts up front.
 
What if Brady retires after winning this year's SB, and then the Pats sign Cousins.
Then the trade with Jimmy G doesn't look so sad for the Pats after all.
Maybe Brady actually whispered those plans to Pats FO, and they had a wink and nod to Cousins, and that was their plan after all, when they traded Jimmy G, and the reason they felt comfortable doing it.
Imagine Cousins under Bellichek.
And imagine how little money it would take to convince him to take that job.
 
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So if you were GM for a day, who do you like brother? I am on record as decrying Sean McVay's aptitude in another forum last season, but he has done an incredible job with the Lambs. Do you see any OC's/DC's with the same potential, or should we look to the college ranks for our next HC?

To be quite honest, I'm not sure. My interest in the NFL has waned and I no longer follow close enough to know of candidates out there. I can only state what I wanted, and clamored for 4 years ago when Gruden was hired, Zimmer.

I only know that Jay Gruden is an over hyped OC who lacks the ability to coach a "team"...he's just good at scheming a game plan, with an offense that works, he lacks game time management of the variables involved in winning, i.e, clock management. And that one example has Not changed over the 4 years he's been here. With Gruden at the helm, we're looking at another wasted season of mediocrity, likely 8-8.
 
To be quite honest, I'm not sure. My interest in the NFL has waned and I no longer follow close enough to know of candidates out there. I can only state what I wanted, and clamored for 4 years ago when Gruden was hired, Zimmer.

I only know that Jay Gruden is an over hyped OC who lacks the ability to coach a "team"...he's just good at scheming a game plan, with an offense that works, he lacks game time management of the variables involved in winning, i.e, clock management. And that one example has Not changed over the 4 years he's been here. With Gruden at the helm, we're looking at another wasted season of mediocrity, likely 8-8.

I agree. Initially I thought his pedigree might make a difference, but the results say otherwise. At this point I think we might have to go back to the proverbial drawing board to find another candidate. I myself am no expert on coaching hires or potentials, so I can only do the same as you, that is, hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
 
McCloughan said it all on Denver radio - Cousins is a good player, but he doesn't see 'special'.

So, paying him $30M is in the long-run vs. the cap not a value move. You don't pay 'Kobe' beef money for strip-steak :)

Kirwan may be right that you can't build a championship team over time with just a defense and a $5-8M a year quarterback.

But what IS possible to do is to go into the draft and take a quarterback who you can grow with and hopefully start to win big with BEFORE they get to that 5th year option and you THEN have to pay them a top salary to match their top production.

We missed the boat on Cousins because he was drafted as an afterthought.

With the draft picks given up for Griffin, Cousins was never going to get on the field as a bona fide starter until Griffin fell flat on his face, which in fact happened but it took almost 3 years for the club to finally give up on him.

So, the history with Kirk was very brief before he and his agent after 9 starts in 2015 were already beginning to hold out their hands for 'top' money or at least more than what teams are likely to pay a guy whose first few starts in the NFL included one against the Giants where he threw 2 or 3 interceptions and then seemed to slump on the bench down on himself and his prospects back in 2014.

Perhaps Cousins was justified in thinking at the end of 2015 that since the Redskins didn't give him an early shot in 2012 or 2013 that he deserved to be paid more for those first 9-10 starts where he showed he could play.

But the fact is we are where we are now.

The smart move is to cut ties with Cousins, try to trade him and get compensation on his way out the door and grow with a new qb who doesn't have any baggage and is happy to be in Washington.

Then Snyder, Allen, Williams and Gruden have the responsibility for managing his development and salary requirements down the road.

The Vikings are facing a somewhat similar situation after 2017 with Case Keenum.

Nobody expected Keenum to be starting in a conference championship game. Just like no one in 2012 expected Kirk Cousins to throw for 4,000 yards in a season as a fourth round draft pick.

If people knew these players were productive starters Keenum would have been drafted and Cousins would have been drafted higher.

But I don't expect the Vikings to give Keenum a $120M deal with $90 million in guarantees in the offseason.

My personal feeling was after the Saints came back in that game against the Vikings, and Keenum was looking ineffective for several drives in the second half that Zimmer was close to pulling him for Sam Bradford.
 
What if Brady retires after winning this year's SB, and then the Pats sign Cousins.
Then the trade with Jimmy G doesn't look so sad for the Pats after all.
Maybe Brady actually whispered those plans to Pats FO, and they had a wink and nod to Cousins, and that was their plan after all, when they traded Jimmy G, and the reason they felt comfortable doing it.
Imagine Cousins under Bellichek.
And imagine how little money it would take to convince him to take that job.

All the noise I've heard regarding Garrapolo said one thing - Brady plans to play for 2 or 3 more years and they saw a chance to get picks for him. Haven't heard a single whisper that Brady is thinking anything else, or that Cousins is a possibility in NE. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but that's a pretty wild 'what if' :)
 
My guess is when Brady does decide to retire it'll be alongside Belicheck. Can't see Bill winning a Super Bowl without Tom as qb, imho.
 

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