Random Commanders Thoughts

Let's look at the risk reward of the onside kick:

Reward: You get the ball and have all the momentum. You have taken control of the game and have everything going for you. You score, which is highly likely, you take the lead and put all the pressure on Dallas. You just flipped the game and put yourself in a position to win.

Risk: You give Dallas a short field. But you can't stop their offense so they are going to score. But instead of going 75 yards, they go 50 yards and save you about 2 or 3 minutes in time of possession.

The reward was so much greater than the risk. If the Redskins could stop Dallas, you absolutely kick deep. But they couldn't, so take the shot at flipping the game and if you don't, then you will get the ball back with more time on the clock.


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I'll disagree. I believe we were down 5 with 9 minutes and change left. What is the conversion rate on onside kicks? 10%? And I never think that scoring a TD is highly likely. But that's just me.

If you are kicking onside because you have no confidence in your defense then that says volumes right there.

Who has confidence in this defense? When have they stopped anyone in the 2nd half? Especially yesterday when Dallas was doing what they wanted at that point in the game. You do what it takes to try and win the game. You don't just throw your Defense back on the field when you know they will fail because it's their turn. You have to work with what you have and take chances when you see fit. That was a great chance to take even though it didn't work out.


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I think the % chance of the defense making a stop was higher than the chance to recover the kick. Albeit not by much.

After seeing the WT and PFT pieces about Reeds injury, if what Gruden is saying (grade 3 AC sprain) is accurate, I doubt we'll see him again this season, short of a playoff run. Grade 3 is a complete tare, or as close to completely torn depending who you ask. No way he could have played with a complete tare, as the arm drops, and clavicle moves up.... you really can't move your arm. Been there done that. I'm hoping there's some confusion on Grudens part, and we see him back in 3 or 4 weeks.

Oh ya ...thank you Scott !

Davis is a hell of a back up plan...

stevenaa said:

Hopkins has some critical misses. the 55 yarder was stacked against him, but still, he's a kicker and that's what he gets paid for. They don't run him out there if they don't think he can make it. He must make it fairly routine at that distance in practice.

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For sure, but to say he hasn't helped this season is going overboard. He's missed 6 FGs this season with half of them over 50 yards. The only miss I've been real disappointed with was the Bengals OT one.

Kel Varnsen said:

Who has confidence in this defense? When have they stopped anyone in the 2nd half? Especially yesterday when Dallas was doing what they wanted at that point in the game. You do what it takes to try and win the game. You don't just throw your Defense back on the field when you know they will fail because it's their turn. You have to work with what you have and take chances when you see fit. That was a great chance to take even though it didn't work out.


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They've held what, 2 of the last 3 opponents SCORELESS in the 2nd half? Chris is 100% right - that reeked of a panic move that robbed us of all momentum, and wasn't necessary with that much time remaining.


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micks113 said:

we will probably be 8-8

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We're much better than that.
The only thing that yesterday proved, is that we're not the best team in the league.
We played against arguably the best team in the NFL (twice), and both times we hung close with them all the way until the end - even in spite of making multiple crucial mistakes.
8-8 teams typically don't do that.
Neither do teams with a tie on their record end up 8-8

Fear The Spear said:

We're much better than that.
The only thing that yesterday proved, is that we're not the best team in the league.
We played against arguably the best team in the NFL (twice), and both times we hung close with them all the way until the end - even in spite of making multiple crucial mistakes.
8-8 teams typically don't do that.
Neither do teams with a tie on their record end up 8-8

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Bwahahaha.....got my dumb arse Fear.

Deep down, I know we are better than 8-8 too. And I believe we are better than Dallas, period. First game was an easy win but Kirk missed wide open long balls. The difference is Dallas has the horseshoe up their ass and we don't. We don't get the bounces, don't get the ref calls, don't get the lucky turnover. We have to dominate to win but never do.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't remember a single game in Gruden's tenure, when we won because we outcoached our opponent.

Conversely, we've clearly been outcoached, let's be nice and say, more than once.

I still don't see Gruden possessing the "it" factor.

Average at best.

This offseason is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing that I can recall. (Yes, I realize this is a bit early.)

Signing or tagging Cousins is a no-brainer at this point. What happens with Garçon and Jackson? What do we do to strengthen the interior offensive line? How does our glut of good tackles play into that? Could Scherff move to center? Is that a possibility? Is Moses athletic enough to move to guard?

There is clearly a dearth of talent along the interior of the d-line, lack of athleticism at inside linebacker, and safety always seems to be a need. Will Galette ever see the field?

We have to build to compete against and beat Dallas. Their offense is only going to get better. They are mostly pups and are only going to improve. That is the mission.

Better than Dallas? No, we are not. You have to win against another team more than once in a while to be better.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda is not a factor in determining playoff criteria.

To finish the season we got :

Arizona (with a week and a half break)
Philly
Carolina
Chicago
NY

I can definitely realistically see us runnin the table and end up 11-4-1.
Guaranteed wild card.
In fact, even with the loss to Dallas, we are still currently holding onto the 6th seed, NO MATTER WHAT ANY of the other teams do on Sunday.

Ax said:

Maybe it's just me, but I don't remember a single game in Gruden's tenure, when we won because we outcoached our opponent.

Conversely, we've clearly been outcoached, let's be nice and say, more than once.

I still don't see Gruden possessing the "it" factor.

Average at best.

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Right? If only we had a decent coach....


Redskins have NFL's third-best record over past 16 games

Washington Post - Nov*23,*2016


“You're seriously trying to talk about the NFL's best records over the past 16 games?” you are yelling right now. “From November to November? https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ve-nfls-third-best-record-over-past-16-games/


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Come on Om, those are just empty stats that mean nothing.

Guess who leads the league in sacks ?
Good for Zo. He's come a long way.
From the "What if" files...

Alexander's transition from undrafted 300-pound defensive tackle to career special teamer to 33-year-old edge rusher is one of pro football's best stories. Tied for the NFL lead at 10, Alexander is the oldest player ever to record his first career double-digit sack season."

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Zach Brown, Lamar Miller among top free-agent hits - NFL.com

Chris said:

Better than Dallas? No, we are not. You have to win against another team more than once in a while to be better.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda is not a factor in determining playoff criteria.

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I dunno, there's an argument to be had...

We took 2 FG's and missed 2 others and missed a 2 pt conversion. That's a potential 23 pts we left on the table when we were in a position to score (7 + 7 + 4 + 4 + 1)

Not saying we should have won that game with 49 points, but it shows the potential of this offense if it can get out of its own way.

I'm not sure they're a better team...

We put up alot of yards on their D, and I blame our O more for the lack of points than their D.

I feel like their D is worse than ours.
I also feel like if our O was consistent it would be better than theirs.

Knightingale said:

I dunno, there's an argument to be had...

We took 2 FG's and missed 2 others and missed a 2 pt conversion. That's a potential 23 pts we left on the table when we were in a position to score (7 + 7 + 4 + 4 + 1)

Not saying we should have won that game with 49 points, but it shows the potential of this offense if it can get out of its own way.

I'm not sure they're a better team...

We put up alot of yards on their D, and I blame our O more for the lack of points than their D.

I feel like their D is worse than ours.
I also feel like if our O was consistent it would be better than theirs.

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Like I stated- coulda, woulda, shoulda. I've yet to see that column in the standings.

The numbers are misleading in the box score because while the Redskins threw for 450 yards, that is really the only aspect of the game they outplayed the Cowboys.

Elliott ran for 5.5 yards a carry against our defense and put up 97 yards on only 14-15 carries. That's atrocious. We knew going in that Job #1 against Dallas was stopping Elliott and we didn't get that done. Dallas has an outstanding line and as we realized going into the season, with few investments up front the Redskins DL while giving 100% effort wasn't up to the task.

That one is on the front office and coaching staff who decided through four plus rounds of the draft and free agency there was no one out there who could help us in 2016 and we went with what we had, first starting Kedric Golston (at 33) at NT and then moving 298 pound Ziggy Hood into the spot despite him being a career DE in the 3-4.

On the other side of the fence, one of the reasons the Redskins have struggled in the red zone in a number of games is the lack of a running attack capable of breaking the big play.

Against the Cowboys defensive front which is not among the league's best, the Redskins produced a feeble rushing attack. At one point we were averaging 2.7 yards a carry, half of what Dallas was averaging.

When you can't threaten via the run, it only makes defenses close down that much harder in the red zone on Reed, Garcon, etc.

One of the reasons we were able to score 42 points against Green Bay and covert drives into touchdowns is that the running game was a significant factor on offense. We made a few big plays running the ball and that prevented Green Bay from just dropping 7 or 8 into coverage on critical downs.

All that said, the remaining 5 games are all against teams that also have some distinct flaws.

So, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Redskins end up with 9 or 10 wins.

Arizona and Carolina appear mortal and both have key games this weekend which may determine how much fight they have left in them when they face the Redskins. Both appear long shots at best to remain in the wildcard race.

But the reality is that the Redskins, with the defense and ground game question marks, is going to hard pressed to to beat teams like Seattle and Dallas come playoff time.

Green Bay was also missing a multitude of defensive starters. Tennessee put up more points against them.