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Random Commanders Thoughts

Let's see. I double checked my Football 101 list on my fridge. Yep, #1 on the list.......Defense Wins Championships. (Been #1 one on my list since 66. One truism about the NFL, the more things change, the more they stay the same. )
 
McD5 said:
On that note, this is hysterical:

Josh Norman: Cowboys 'need to get Dez's 70 mil back' - NFL.com

Now who is more valuable to building a great team? Josh Norman or Dez?
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Norman is smart, for one thing. The way he baited Bryant into the yapping match during the play.....which proved costly :

"Me and him were having choice words," Norman said of the play, "then I pointed at Kurt as he scored and I said, 'Look at that, Now take that back to your huddle and come back again.'"
 
Defense is boring?

Was it boring watching Manley and Mann kill the QB?

Was it boring watching Alvin Walton light somebody up?

Was it boring watching someone like Pinkston or Terry Glenn wet their pants because Sean Taylor was in the area?

Defense may be boring when it doesn't have any talent on it but when you actually have talent?

Get your popcorn ready,brother.
 
Fear The Spear said:
So, the question becomes - what are we closer to getting, right now - or at the end of this season :

A great defense, or an elite QB ?

We shouldn't make the mistake of selling out, trying to get both - because that's nearly impossible, and wastes time.

So you pick one of the 2, and go for it.
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As it sits right now, we're far closer on D then at QB Just having Kerrigan truly healthy, and that addition of Junior Gillette will make a huge difference right off the bat. Add in others we've lost to injury this year, and maybe a good pic or two, and we're in pretty good shape. I don't think we'll resign Pot Roast, as we got more pot luck there, and Baker has done very well. I doubt Hatcher will be back either, but we're talkin rotational players that we should be able to do better either drafting or through free agency.


Fear The Spear said:
The other question is - even if we get the right players on defense, do we have the right coach to make this defense great, in Joe Barry ?
You can't draft Defensive Coordinators, and they're just as important as the players you draft.
And the jury is still out on Barry.
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That is the bigger question...
 
Kerrigan has had a poor season. I don't know whether that's due to injuries or maybe he's not the top tier guy we thought he was, but he's not a world beater right now. Galette? Let's see him play a live down before we call him a difference maker. Who else do we have on D that is impressive? I think you're overstating things, particularly given what we've seen this season, which has been a pretty poor defense, injuries notwithstanding. Breeland, and arguably Baker, have been the lone bright spots.
 
Miles Monroe said:
As it sits right now, we're far closer on D then at QB Just having Kerrigan truly healthy, and that addition of Junior Gillette will make a huge difference right off the bat.
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Problem is, Junior only signed for 1 year.
Unless there's some rule that states, if a player goes on IR before the season starts, his contract is deferred.
 
Fear The Spear said:
Problem is, Junior only signed for 1 year
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True, but he's also be quoted as saying that he wants to be here once recovered, and I'm pretty sure I saw a piece that said the team is hoping to have him next season. We took the risk on his past problems, and he's grateful and wants to prove we weren't wrong. He also won't cost much for another 1 year deal, and could be a game changer. I think we'll see him lining up on the right side next season.
 
Boone said:
Kerrigan has had a poor season. I don't know whether that's due to injuries or maybe he's not the top tier guy we thought he was, but he's not a world beater right now. Galette? Let's see him play a live down before we call him a difference maker. Who else do we have on D that is impressive? I think you're overstating things, particularly given what we've seen this season, which has been a pretty poor defense, injuries notwithstanding. Breeland, and arguably Baker, have been the lone bright spots.
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Oh sure, I have a positive outlook for once, and Mr Sunshine himself piss in my popcorn.... what a world... what a world... what a world...:munching_out:



:rotflmao:
Seriously though, Ryan has had a bad season. I do attribute much of it to the surgery just prior to the season, which didn't help him physically and in getting use to the new system to some degree The other part is the supporting cast, which isn't really producing. The D is basically stinking it up. I really like Murphy, but he's a good rotational player, not a starting OLB. Hatcher and Pot Roast really haven't produced from what I can see.

As for Junior... I didn't call him a difference maker. I said "could be a game changer." We do know what he had been in the past, and is still young enough. I know that beyond the off field issues, most folks were pretty intrigued, if not down right sporting wood with the thought of a dominant pass rusher across from Kerrigan. I'll stick by my post knowing we have just as many questions, if not more, then answers about who will be on the squad next season. I see it as easier to build a dominating D in the short term, then having an "elite" QB here. We've been in search of a franchise signal caller for years now, and while Cousins could become a very good starting QB, I don't see him ever being in the "elite" groups of QB's. Will there be an elite QB in the next two drafts, that the Skins may get a shot to take..... I sure as hell don't know, but do feel pretty strongly that we can fix the D in the next two seasons.

So, to me, we're closer to having a dominating D then an elite QB in Washington.
 
Superbowl D vs QB.jpg

Not sure this is going to work but trying to attach the worksheet I made. See below for the summary.

Warning: This is quite lengthy

Based on my earlier post, there appears to be some disagreement about whether or not Scot McCloughlan’s approach to building an elite defense as the quickest and most reliable path to a Super Bowl contender is the right one. In particular, there are some that feel that banking on getting that “elite QB” will inevitably put us in the best position to win a Super Bowl.

With this in mind, I’ve collected some data to better understand what is more important for winning championships: an "elite" QB or an "elite" defense.

Methodology:
I looked at the last 25 years of statistics on QBs and defenses (source: nfl.com) and defined “elite” as top 10 passing yards for QBs and top 10 yards for defenses. These are the default statistical categories that are used to determine the top QB and defenses and so I felt these were the best proxies for “elite-ness”.

I then took these and captured for each year whether the Superbowl championship team had either an elite QB, and elite D, or both.

The results are interesting.

Superbowl champions with a top-10 QB the year they won: 52%
Superbowl champions with a top-10 D the year they won: 75%
Superbowl champions with both top-10 QB and top-10 D: 36%

That is compelling, but the next level analysis is even more informative. I wanted to get a sense of those championship teams with only a top-10 QB or only a top-10 D. This gives you a better sense of which attribute, over time, is more important in predicting Superbowl success.

Here’s what I found:

Champs with only a top-10 QB: 12% (only 3 teams in 25 years)
Champs with only a top-10 D: 40% (10 teams in 25 years)

Considering that finding an elite QB is like finding a unicorn and that having a top-10 D positions a team for greater likelihood of championship success, I think Scot is heading down the right path here. I could care less if we continue to try and play the QB sweepstakes. It’s about as good as a lottery ticket and, quite frankly, the payoff isn’t necessarily that good if a Superbowl is what you want.
 
Great stuff bird! One quick drive-by comment. I've heard a lot of folks say that WRs and RBs 'don't matter', but given how important (reflected that 52% of the champs had a top 10 QB) great quarterbacking is, and the role very good WR and RB play in affording the QB the opportunity to perform at a top 10 level, I think they do matter. In other words, you can't separate out great QBing play from those other positions imho. I'd have loved to have seen 'Top 10 RB' included in that mix.

As far as the 36% finding (surprisingly low) for winners with both a top D and top QB, I'd say that's due to the difficulty in having both of those at the same time and that having both would definitely be preferable. I'm not asking you to do it, but I would love to see what this would look like over a larger period or even the history of the league. Don't do that please, I would just love to see if the numbers change. Might not be as relevant going further back as the game is so different now.
 
Boone said:
Great stuff bird! One quick drive-by comment. I've heard a lot of folks say that WRs and RBs 'don't matter', but given how important (reflected that 52% of the champs had a top 10 QB) great quarterbacking is, and the role very good WR and RB play in affording the QB the opportunity to perform at a top 10 level, I think they do matter. In other words, you can't separate out great QBing play from those other positions imho. I'd have loved to have seen 'Top 10 RB' included in that mix.

As far as the 36% finding (surprisingly low) for winners with both a top D and top QB, I'd say that's due to the difficulty in having both of those at the same time and that having both would definitely be preferable. I'm not asking you to do it, but I would love to see what this would look like over a larger period or even the history of the league. Don't do that please, I would just love to see if the numbers change. Might not be as relevant going further back as the game is so different now.
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I can go back and layer on top the Top RB into the mix.

To be honest, my takeaway from this really was that if you had to choose, "elite D" wins over "elite QB" everytime. I interpret the fact that only 3 teams won with an elite QB that had no elite D, but many more Super Bowl winners over the last 15 years had elite D and no elite QB.

Elite QB may or may not be influenced by WR (in fact, you may be right) but the point really is to show that we shouldn't be chasing the elusive elite QB in our quest to build a perennial SB winning franchise. Build the D. Turn us into a Carolina or a Seattle.

The reason I stuck with the last 15 years is that I wanted a sample size that was more reflective of the current state of the league. I was worried if I went further back, I would have biased results due to a game that was fundamentally different than what we have today (more lax rules favoring offense, free agency, etc).
 
Boone said:
Great stuff bird! One quick drive-by comment. I've heard a lot of folks say that WRs and RBs 'don't matter', but given how important (reflected that 52% of the champs had a top 10 QB) great quarterbacking is, and the role very good WR and RB play in affording the QB the opportunity to perform at a top 10 level, I think they do matter. In other words, you can't separate out great QBing play from those other positions imho.
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I think if you really go back over the last ten years and look at the past SB champions, you'll find that few if any had a great WR or great RB. Just for starters, who have been the top RBs over the last ten years?

Adrian Peterson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Lesean McCoy
Leveon Bell
Steven Jackson
Marshawn Lynch
Todd Gurley (now)

Only Marshawn has won a SB. And most of the other teams have sucked pretty hard.

Now look at the teams that have won the SB, and take a look at their RBs or WRs.

Patriots--neither great RBs nor WRs
Giants--neither great RBs nor WRs
Seattle--no WRs at all, Marshawn Lynch and an incredible defense.
Ravens--no great WRs, Ray Rice and an incredible defense.

Then you can look at the undefeated teams this season:

Panthers--no great WRs, one average RB who is 32 years old.
Patriots--no great WRs, no great RBs.

Now to the defensive point, here are the bottom 5 defenses this season:

28. Detroit
29. Jacksonville
30. Miami
31. Indianapolis
32. Baltimore

All of those teams are screwed. Notice what happens when the Ravens no longer have Ed Reed or Ray Lewis on that D?

One final note. The QBs on those bottom five teams are all average or even above average. Detroit and Jacksonville also have very good or great WRs.
 
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McD5 said:
One final note. The QBs on those bottom five teams are all average or even above average. Detroit and Jacksonville also have very good or great WRs.
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And this is why I'm conflicted on taking a tall WR with one of our first 3 draft picks. They don't correlate with success, but I can't help but feel that it would help our team to have one.

If we went purely by the numbers, we probably get biggest bang for our buck taking as many elite D prospects as possible in the hopes of making our D elite.
 
bird_1972 said:
And this is why I'm conflicted on taking a tall WR with one of our first 3 draft picks. They don't correlate with success, but I can't help but feel that it would help our team to have one.

If we went purely by the numbers, we probably get biggest bang for our buck taking as many elite D prospects as possible in the hopes of making our D elite.
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I think you've hit the nail right on the head.

Obviously all players help in a team sport. And a great WR can certainly help. But siging a DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Johnson or Amari Cooper isn't as important as loading the D.

Take an O-lineman early if we need it. But then just stack that D.
 
tr1 said:
One could make the case that the o-line AND d-lines for these teams were pretty good.
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I don't think anyone would suggest that the Patriots or Seattle have or had good O-lines.

Remember the SB where the Giants just sacked Brady over and over and crushed that offense? D line is still more important than the O-line. If anyone still questions that, take a look at Dallas and their great O-line this season.

Then take a look at Denver's D, their record, and the QB play they've had this year.
 
McD5 said:
I think if you really go back over the last ten years and look at the past SB champions, you'll find that few if any had a great WR or great RB. Just for starters, who have been the top RBs over the last ten years?

Adrian Peterson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Lesean McCoy
Leveon Bell
Steven Jackson
Marshawn Lynch
Todd Gurley (now)
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I think the RB Theory was proved a long long time ago.
Barry Sanders proved that a team could even have the greatest RB of all time, year in and year out, and that doesn't even get you to the playoffs.
How many times did his LIons team even get in the playoffs during his whole career ? Once ?
 
tr1 said:
In head-to-head match ups, one line can be stronger than the other, but compare those SB o-lines to other paltry teams...the o-lines are better than most.
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O-lines are important tr1. Everything is important. A kicker who sends kickoffs through the end zone is extremely important.

Seattle's O-line is on pace to give up the most sacks in NFL history this year. They're not just the worst O-line in the league, they're historically bad.

The Patriots routinely lose LTs and RTs and it doesn't even matter. Their o-lines have been, and continue to be below the league average. They literally start guys off the street on their O-line.

Dallas has a very good O-line. It hasn't even mattered this season.

But a great D-line? That can get you to the SB.
 
Just a reminder for anyone interested. FSU vs. UF at 7:30 tonight.

Had you watched this game last season, you would have seen the following players in their final regular season college games:

Matt Jones
Jameis Winston
Devonta Freeman
Dante Fowler

This year's talent and teams are both weaker than usual. But there are still a few players that should light up the NFL.

On FSU: Jalen Ramsey. We may never see another Sean Taylor in our lifetimes. But if Sean was your guy, then you'll want to watch Ramsey tonight. He has the size, speed, heart and hitting ability that makes jaws drop. He is also expected to shock on measurables at the upcoming combine. A track star in college, he's currently projected to go anywhere from picks 6-9 in the first round of next year's draft. He's the most highly touted safety to be drafted, well, since Sean Taylor.

Dalvin Cook: He's only a true sophomore
so he's ineligible for this year's draft. But watch and admire. He may be a great one in the NFL.

On Florida: Vernon Hargreaves. He's expected to go between picks 3 and 5 in the first round. I believe he gave up only one TD all of last season--to Amari Cooper.

Jonathan Bullard: DE. He's a beast both against the run and the pass, and he's expected to go in the middle of the second round.
 
McD - really a shame we aren't in a position to take either Ramsey or Hargreaves. Both are positions of need for us.

Remember - elite D draft picks for our future elite D!!

Has The Scot written all over it!
 
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