Not sure this is going to work but trying to attach the worksheet I made. See below for the summary.
Warning: This is quite lengthy
Based on my earlier post, there appears to be some disagreement about whether or not Scot McCloughlan’s approach to building an elite defense as the quickest and most reliable path to a Super Bowl contender is the right one. In particular, there are some that feel that banking on getting that “elite QB” will inevitably put us in the best position to win a Super Bowl.
With this in mind, I’ve collected some data to better understand what is more important for winning championships: an "elite" QB or an "elite" defense.
Methodology:
I looked at the last 25 years of statistics on QBs and defenses (source: nfl.com) and defined “elite” as top 10 passing yards for QBs and top 10 yards for defenses. These are the default statistical categories that are used to determine the top QB and defenses and so I felt these were the best proxies for “elite-ness”.
I then took these and captured for each year whether the Superbowl championship team had either an elite QB, and elite D, or both.
The results are interesting.
Superbowl champions with a top-10 QB the year they won:
52%
Superbowl champions with a top-10 D the year they won:
75%
Superbowl champions with both top-10 QB and top-10 D:
36%
That is compelling, but the next level analysis is even more informative. I wanted to get a sense of those championship teams with only a top-10 QB or only a top-10 D. This gives you a better sense of which attribute, over time, is more important in predicting Superbowl success.
Here’s what I found:
Champs with
only a
top-10 QB:
12% (only 3 teams in 25 years)
Champs with
only a
top-10 D:
40% (10 teams in 25 years)
Considering that finding an elite QB is like finding a unicorn and that having a top-10 D positions a team for greater likelihood of championship success, I think Scot is heading down the right path here. I could care less if we continue to try and play the QB sweepstakes. It’s about as good as a lottery ticket and, quite frankly, the payoff isn’t necessarily that good if a Superbowl is what you want.