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Random Commanders Thoughts

Henry said:
Again, five on five is hardly a blitz, and then you've got 5 WRs against 6 DBs. Several one-on-one match ups. Not sure that's a better plan.
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oh i'm not saying blitz the qb heavy. just send 5 and actually have them go after the qb. the pathetic let 3 linemen stand still while the qb stands there and waits 20 seconds for everyone to go stand in the endzone is dumb. force the play. the same way you've played the other 59 minutes and 40 seconds of the game.

the play is hard enough for the offense to complete when he's not under any pressure and can do whatever he wants. put the odds in your favor a little more by forcing the throw early.
 
Here's an interesting graphic.

I looked at all the situations in which there were 8 or fewer seconds remaining (enough for one play) and a team needed a TD to tie or win (down by 4 through 8 points), and see how often they got that TD based on field position. This includes any plays that ultimately result in a TD, which would include any defensive penalty that enabled a subsequent scoring play. Even though SEA was specifically down by 5, the situations for being down by 4-8 are effectively indistinguishable for the purpose of estimating the chance they can get the TD.

From the 2000 through 2011 seasons, there were 223 examples in total--a little over 20 per 10-yard bin of field position. The chart below plots the TD success rate in the sample.
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hailmary.png

Advanced NFL Stats: Hail Mary Probabilities

Now, the writer of that Deadspin piece starts by lamenting the success of a Hail Mary thrown from a team's own 49 yard line. According to this article, a throw from that distance has about a 1% chance of succeeding. Are we really saying that success rate is too high, and warrants a change of tactics? (I concede that perhaps some of these 40+ yard passes were thrown against a blitz or something, but I find it highly unlikely, and so does the writer of the Deadspin article or we wouldn't be having this discussion.)
 
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Henry said:
Here's an interesting graphic.



View attachment 1038

Advanced NFL Stats: Hail Mary Probabilities

Now, the writer of that Deadspin piece starts by lamenting the success of a Hail Mary thrown from a team's own 49 yard line. According to this article, a throw from that distance has about a 1% chance of succeeding. Are we really saying that success rate is too high, and warrants a change of tactics? (I concede that perhaps some of these 40+ yard passes were thrown against a blitz or something, but I find it highly unlikely, and so does the writer of the Deadspin article or we wouldn't be having this discussion.)
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1% is pretty low, but the problem is, DCs go into the prevent defense all the time, not just with 8 seconds left. This is why so many 2-minute drills look so good, because they're going up against crappy prevent Ds. I extrapolated his point to that by myself, it wasn't his actual point though. Maybe I was unclear. :)
 
Goaldeje said:
Hate to say it, but I don't find that too preposterous, right now. Now if anyone thinks they should choose Glennon over Griff long term, then yeah, pass the bong. But Griff has been off all year, and I went and watched the game from Sunday on DVR this week and he was terrible last weekend. I haven't watched one TB game this year (has anyone?), and I wouldn't know Mike Gelnnon if he walked in with a nametag that said, Hi, I'm Mike Glennon, but it is not inconceivable to me that he is playing the QB position better than Robert right now.

Again, if this is a long term discussion, then... yeah. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
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Glennon is better.......

....it's the neck


15837.png
 
Goaldeje said:
Hate to say it, but I don't find that too preposterous, right now. Now if anyone thinks they should choose Glennon over Griff long term, then yeah, pass the bong. But Griff has been off all year, and I went and watched the game from Sunday on DVR this week and he was terrible last weekend. I haven't watched one TB game this year (has anyone?), and I wouldn't know Mike Gelnnon if he walked in with a nametag that said, Hi, I'm Mike Glennon, but it is not inconceivable to me that he is playing the QB position better than Robert right now.

Again, if this is a long term discussion, then... yeah. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
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People get SO reactionary when watching football. One good game and it's "We're gonna win the Superbowl!"

One bad game and "We can't beat anyone!"

A QB has a good game and suddenly "He's the best rookie I've ever seen!"

It's exhausting. I'm not worried about Griffin in the long run. And I'm not seeing greatness in some rookie who's 2-5 with a 87 career passer rating simply because had a good game against a terrible team last week. It happens.

Maybe Glennon will be a great QB, but we won't know after seven games. If one seven game stretch meant anything, Griffin would already be in the hall of fame.
 
For what its worth, Jaws said today that Griffin has dropped to 38% completion % from the pocket this year from 70% last year. That is telling. He also said the Redskins offense has become predictable.
 
I just found out why we are going to win from NFLN.

Dude on there picked us because "London Fletcher has played 250 straight games", seriously. That was his entire argument.
 
The 49ers are only five point favorites Monday night. That's not too bad.
 
I would assume you are all aware of the internet moniker sensation aka "RGknee"???

Well I just saw another one.... "RGnotME!"

THis is becoming an actual opinion out there folks. SMGDH
 
I don't want to add to any of this nonsense, but I find this a little disturbing:

Ian Rapoport--.@MikeSilver says at Baylor, coaches didn’t put RGIII’s bad plays up on the board. Sources say he asked for the same with Redskins. No dice.

.@MikeSilver: "Inside the building when you talk to people familiar with this situation they perceive RG3 as kind of insecure."
 
Man - I never can get used to a Sunday without a Redskins game on.
 
Don't know if that's true or not. Do know Griffin does not like addressing areas he feels he can improve. says to focus on positives.

never bought that coaches were OK w/Griffin's postgame comments. Even if had great relationship, would have bothered me if i was coach

--John Keim, both comments.
 
This really is so disappointing.


#RG3 expressing “dissatisfaction” with Shanahan to teammates. Blowing off steam about the boss? Organizing mutiny? Likely something between.

--Rich Tandler

This isn't going to end well for Shanny. Barring a huge run here, or a serious injury to RG3, I believe he's done at the end of the season.
 
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