Extremely frustrated today especially after we were up 17-0. Many of us in chat weren't sure we could keep the lead (I mean was anyone?), but we had hope.
Afterwards, it got me thinking...how often have we blown a lead like that? It feels like it has happened before because seriously we've never felt comfortable with a lead. So, I decided to go back through the all of Gruden's games to see where has there been a 17 point lead by either team and then the final result.
In Gruden's tenure, there have been 35 games where someone has had a 17 point lead. In those, we are 15-20. For the most part, whomever had the 17 point lead won except in two cases.
2015 season, we were down to Tampa Bay 0-17 at the 11:34 mark in the 2nd and came back to win 31-30.
2019 season, we were up 17-0 to the Eagles at the 10:49 mark in the 2nd and lost 27-32.
I then decided to look at of those 35 times and see how many times did that 17 point lead happen in the first half. My thinking being that's certainly more than enough time to lose the lead or comeback.
Situation | #s | Opponent > .500 for season | Opponent <= .500 for season |
Skins won after holding 17 point lead in first half | 7 | 1 | 6 |
Skins win after being behind 17 points in first half | 1 | | 1 |
Skins lose after being behind 17 points in first half | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Skins lose after holding 17 point lead in first half | 1 | ? | ? |
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FYI...second half leads of 17 always hold true to form. Skins being 7-12 when it happens in the 2nd half. 6 of those occurred in the 3rd quarter.
So, I was somewhat surprised to see this if the first time we lost when up by 17. I don't know if that makes me feel worse or not as bad. I actually expected it to have happened more than once. This was the earliest in the game we've ever had a 17 point lead.
If you are interested in seeing the games, I've got a spreadsheet here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IIBj61ksfa3LRGX4NyOWpahIp5LDjvQ2mvg5Z_6lFeQ/edit?usp=sharing