A Burgundy and Gold Obsession
'Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.' - Groucho Marx

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  1. #1

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    Florida Atlantic

    Default 538.com - How Romney's Choice of Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome

    Very interesting read from the stat nerds at 538.com.

    I think Romney will go with Rubio or McDonnell as running mate. Christie is also a darkhorse.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...y-the-outcome/
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  2. #2
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    If Rubio is willing, he will be the one.
    The question is whether Rubio is willing or not.
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  3. #3
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    Army

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    I'm saying it now....if Romney does not pick a VP from the South, he absolutely will not win the election, period.
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    It's ok, I don't like you either.

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    Default

    I'm sayin it right now - unless Romney picks a Female, Lesbian, Hispanic who is an Illegal Immigrant for VP, he will not win....


    just kidding
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  5. #5

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    George Mason

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    Oh how I wish that was possible, only to see the republicans justify the hypocrisy in supporting a candidate like that.

    (to be clear the democrats would do the same if the VP nomination was an anti-gay, anti-illegal immigrant, etc etc etc)
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  6. #6
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    Florida State

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    Paul Ryan will be the VP candidate with Romney. Rubio has become a liability and McConnell is too soft.
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant View Post
    Paul Ryan will be the VP candidate with Romney. Rubio has become a liability and McConnell is too soft.
    Portman seems the likely choice as of recently
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    Florida State

    Default

    No, he's the "safe" choice.

    If Romney really wants to be the next President, his only chance is Paul Ryan. Rubio could win some hispanic votes, but his campaign money issues are a liability that will be BLOWN out of proportion since Hilary Clinton id the same thing.

    Ryan offers a candidate seemingly above reproach, you're not gonna find much dirt on him that wouldn't have already be exposed in his 14 years in Congress. He's smart and seasoned enough to handle the press. He has been in charge of the House Budget office for the last couple of years so he knows the budget mess well. He will help in the midwest which could be a huge swing for Romney in states like Minnesota and possibly Michigan, but definitely Ohio and Wisconsin. These states are equally as important as the Southern States. It's unlikely Obama takes VA and NC. He may be able to win NC, but I doubt he takes VA. Which leaves FL, so the obvious choice would be Rubio, but how many votes will be lost because of his indiscretion.

    I have been saying it all along, Obama wins the election because he takes FL and I don't thin Rubio would help Romney take it. So I guess what I am saying is it doesn't matter who Romney picks, the VP choice will not win him the election...he won't win.
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

  9. #9

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    Florida Atlantic

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fear The Spear View Post
    Portman seems the likely choice as of recently
    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant View Post
    No, he's the "safe" choice.

    If Romney really wants to be the next President, his only chance is Paul Ryan. Rubio could win some hispanic votes, but his campaign money issues are a liability that will be BLOWN out of proportion since Hilary Clinton id the same thing.
    Well according to the math in the article, Portman will help him win Ohio, which is very important. As you said, I don't think Obama will win VA again, and I think Rubio & Bush will campaign hard for FL to go to him as well. His only shot is winning Ohio, I think.
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    Default

    Latest FOX poll released today shows Obama up 49 - 40. Don't know how they breaks down state by state, but I thought that was a surprisingly big margin.
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    James Madison

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    Boring comment.
    Last edited by Goaldeje; 08-11-12 at 07:36 AM. Reason: Edited to not troll
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    George Mason

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    Quote Originally Posted by burgold View Post
    Latest FOX poll released today shows Obama up 49 - 40. Don't know how they breaks down state by state, but I thought that was a surprisingly big margin.
    relative to the topic, i'm not sure how any real poling data can be terribly accurate at this point; romney hasn't even picked a running mate, there have been no debates, etc.

    I did hear from someone that they believe when the poling data shows margins of less than 10 this far out typically the incumbent loses because the independent voters wind up going into the poles saying they know all about the incumbent and don't like him (if they did they wouldn't still be undecided) and since they don't know much about the challenger they're more likely to decide he deserves a chance (or the incumbent doesn't deserve a second chance).

    Now I have no idea what the validity to that is, on it's face it seems to follow a logical train of thought but you'd have to actually break down the numbers to verify that sort of stuff. Just throwing it out there.
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    Default

    Yeah, the question is really two-fold. First, how do voters feel about the economy and state of the nation. Second, how much do they like, trust, or believe in the other guy. Right now, Romney is a politician who somehow blew a trip to the Olympics. I mean how do you mess up something as politics 101 as that?
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    James Madison

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    That Olympics thing will be forgotten by November. This election will come down to the economy, plain and simple. If more people have jobs, Obama has a good chance; if more jobs are lost, or recovery stagnates, Romeny should take it.
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    OLine. DLine. Secondary.

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    George Mason

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    While i share your sentiments mike, i feel like they are moot if the other option would clearly do the same things. Meaning - if I had real faith that Romney would somehow take the presidency more seriously than Obama has (or Bush, or Clinton, or pretty much any president in the last 25 years) then those points would matter to me.

    What you said is valid, and I agree; I wish all presidents would take less time off and spend more of it doing what they were elected to do. But for me it's will not be an actual issue until you can show me a candidate that will not behave that way. Until then it's just a talking point for the other side that is used by the party not in power; we heard the exact same garbage about Bush and his playing golf and retreating to Texas all the time. Big shocker, the republicans have a very similar complaint when a democrat is in office...
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    James Madison

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    Yep. For the record, I think it is disgraceful how much time Obama spends campaigning and fundraising. Preposterous, really. But that's part of the game these days, I guess. It's a shame really, and probably speaks more to the Citizens United ruling than anything else.
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  17. #17
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Goaldeje View Post
    That Olympics thing will be forgotten by November. This election will come down to the economy, plain and simple. If more people have jobs, Obama has a good chance; if more jobs are lost, or recovery stagnates, Romeny should take it.
    Don't get me wrong. I think the Olympics thing is already forgotten or should be. However, I was pretty surprised that he could blow something that easy. That's like screwing up kissing babies and shaking hands.

    This guy is a professional politician who's been a politician much of his adult life who came from a political family! How do not slam dunk the Olympics?

    You know what I mean?
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  18. #18
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    Army

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    Or bowing to foreign leaders. Or putting your left hand over your heart during the national anthem. Or touring the world to tell everyone how arrogant and apologetic we are as a nation. Or touring all 57 states. Yep, we got a winner.
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  19. #19

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    George Mason

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    unsurprisingly extreme thinks a photoshopped image is real.
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    Army

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    Quote Originally Posted by tshile View Post
    unsurprisingly extreme thinks a photoshopped image is real.
    Unsurprisingly, t is getting ahead of himself with his misunderstandings again.

    Not sure what you're implying. Nothing I mentioned was based on a photoshopped pic.
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