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Game 12 - Philly. No biggie. Just a season in the balance ...

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  1. #1

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    Florida Atlantic

    Default Offensive Linemen by Draft Position - Part 2

    The second part of this analysis looks at all OL drafted between 2007 and 2012. I also looked at 2010-2012 individually, just for comparison. The reason I did this is obviously to compare the 3 years prior to Shanahan and the 3 years after. The results are quite astounding.

    First, OL ADP between 2007 and 2012:

    1 Cleveland Browns 2.8
    2 Oakland Raiders 3.0
    3 Baltimore Ravens 3.2
    4 Miami Dolphins 3.4
    5 San Francisco 49ers 3.4
    6 Kansas City Chiefs 3.5
    7 Seattle Seahawks 3.6
    8 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.6
    9 Atlanta Falcons 3.7
    10 Denver Broncos 3.8
    11 St. Louis Rams 3.9
    12 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.9
    13 Dallas Cowboys 4.0
    14 Detroit Lions 4.0
    15 Cincinnati Bengals 4.1
    16 Green Bay Packers 4.2
    17 Indianapolis Colts 4.2
    18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.3
    19 Buffalo Bills 4.3
    20 Minnesota Vikings 4.3
    21 New York Giants 4.5
    22 New Orleans Saints 4.6
    23 Carolina Panthers 4.6
    24 Houston Texans 4.6
    25 Washington Redskins 4.9
    26 New England Patriots 4.9
    27 Chicago Bears 5.1
    28 Arizona Cardinals 5.1
    29 Philadelphia Eagles 5.2
    30 Tennessee Titans 5.3
    31 San Diego Chargers 5.3
    32 New York Jets 5.4

    Second, the number of OL drafted during the same time period:
    1 New England Patriots 11
    2 Pittsburgh Steelers 11
    3 Baltimore Ravens 10
    4 Green Bay Packers 10
    5 Philadelphia Eagles 10
    6 Atlanta Falcons 9
    7 Buffalo Bills 9
    8 Denver Broncos 9
    9 Indianapolis Colts 9
    10 Miami Dolphins 9
    11 San Francisco 49ers 9
    12 Chicago Bears 8
    13 Houston Texans 8
    14 Kansas City Chiefs 8
    15 Washington Redskins 8
    16 Arizona Cardinals 7
    17 Dallas Cowboys 7
    18 New Orleans Saints 7
    19 Seattle Seahawks 7
    20 St. Louis Rams 7
    21 Cleveland Browns 6
    22 Minnesota Vikings 6
    23 New York Giants 6
    24 Oakland Raiders 6
    25 San Diego Chargers 6
    26 Detroit Lions 6
    27 Carolina Panthers 5
    28 Jacksonville Jaguars 5
    29 New York Jets 5
    30 Cincinnati Bengals 4
    31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4
    32 Tennessee Titans 4

    The two things that strikes me between these two charts is that the teams who have continuous success over the past 6 years draft OL in abundance. New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Philly, Atlanta, Denver & Indy (8 of the top 10) have been regular to somewhat-regular fixtures in the playoffs during that same stretch.

    The second thing is this - it doesn't seem to matter where so much where you draft them, just that you draft them. New England, for example is 26th overall (same as the Redskins), Pittsburgh is 12th, Baltimore is 3rd, San Fran is 5th, but Cleveland is first. Cleveland hasn't made the playoffs in a long time; that might be due to their 21st overall 6 OL drafted since 2007.

    Now, here's a look at the same numbers from 2010-2012:
    OL ADP 2010-2012
    1 Miami Dolphins 2.0
    2 Kansas City Chiefs 2.5
    3 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.0
    4 Oakland Raiders 3.0
    5 Seattle Seahawks 3.0
    6 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.4
    7 Indianapolis Colts 3.5
    8 St. Louis Rams 3.5
    9 Baltimore Ravens 3.8
    10 Cleveland Browns 3.8
    11 Denver Broncos 3.8
    12 Atlanta Falcons 3.8
    13 Chicago Bears 4.0
    14 Detroit Lions 4.0
    15 Green Bay Packers 4.0
    16 New York Jets 4.0
    17 San Francisco 49ers 4.0
    18 Cincinnati Bengals 4.3
    19 Dallas Cowboys 4.5
    20 Minnesota Vikings 4.5
    21 Philadelphia Eagles 4.6
    22 New England Patriots 4.8
    23 New York Giants 4.8
    24 Buffalo Bills 4.8
    25 Carolina Panthers 5.0
    26 New Orleans Saints 5.0
    27 Washington Redskins 5.1
    28 Arizona Cardinals 5.3
    29 Houston Texans 5.4
    30 San Diego Chargers 6.0
    31 Tennessee Titans 6.0
    32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.0

    Number of OL drafted 2010-2012
    1 Pittsburgh Steelers 7
    2 Washington Redskins 7
    3 Buffalo Bills 6
    4 San Francisco 49ers 6
    5 Atlanta Falcons 5
    6 Green Bay Packers 5
    7 Houston Texans 5
    8 Oakland Raiders 5
    9 Philadelphia Eagles 5
    10 Baltimore Ravens 4
    11 Cincinnati Bengals 4
    12 Cleveland Browns 4
    13 Dallas Cowboys 4
    14 Denver Broncos 4
    15 Indianapolis Colts 4
    16 Kansas City Chiefs 4
    17 Minnesota Vikings 4
    18 New England Patriots 4
    19 New Orleans Saints 4
    20 New York Giants 4
    21 Seattle Seahawks 4
    22 Arizona Cardinals 3
    23 Carolina Panthers 3
    24 Detroit Lions 3
    25 Miami Dolphins 3
    26 San Diego Chargers 3
    27 Chicago Bears 2
    28 New York Jets 2
    29 St. Louis Rams 2
    30 Jacksonville Jaguars 1
    31 Tennessee Titans 1
    32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0


    Immediately, the impact of Shanahan can be seen, as the Redskins are tied for first with the Steelers. Shanahan has drafted 7 times more lineman than the team did in the 3 years prior to his arrival - that is just mind-boggling. Its also clear that Shanahan has not been drafting them high, with an ADP of 5.1. This could be for several reasons - its well documented that he likes to find hidden gems later in the draft, but also the team was in disarray, and he needs to use those picks on skill players as well. Time will tell if this pattern holds or not.

    Now, these numbers aren't correlated to win % or anything like that - that's some statistics work that's well above my pay grade. However, just looking at some basic trends is encouraging for the future of the Redskins. Hopefully Mike keeps drafting the fat boys!
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  2. #2

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    Default

    Very nice! Thanks for doing the work on this, Lanky.

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    Default

    ultimately, though the correlation factor that matters most is acquiring players who make it to the playing field (whether picks or free agents).

    yes, its nice to think about Gettis or Compton being a player 2-3 years from now as a regular, but with Griffin in the fold it was irresponsible with a chronically injured Brown and Lichtensteiger with an ACL/MCL combination, that the front office here didn't do anything in the offseason in re veterans other than to sign James Lee.

    Lee seems to be down there at the bottom of the barrel with Erick Cook at the moment, guys that are likely to be cut rather quickly once that time comes near the end of camp.
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  4. #4

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    Virginia

    Default

    Once again, gave it another vote to be blogged.

    The numbers game at OL will pay off in the years to come for the Redskins. We needed to overhaul this team and each position needed depth. I like the long term building and we will probably see an even stronger commitment to the OL in the 2013 draft.
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  5. #5

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    Default

    The two things that strikes me between these two charts is that the teams who have continuous success over the past 6 years draft OL in abundance. New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Philly, Atlanta, Denver & Indy (8 of the top 10) have been regular to somewhat-regular fixtures in the playoffs during that same stretch.
    Coincidentally, many of those teams that you mentioned are also some of the very best coached teams in the National Football League.

    As you pointed out, Shanahan has done a nice job of at the very least bringing OL bodies into the mix, regardless of draft position. Now, at some point, the responsibility has to fall somewhat on the shoulders of our coaches (Foerester in particular). Many of the upper-echelon clubs have been able to find ways to mold starters out of mid to late round OL picks. Sooner or later, it's about time that a Compton, Gettis, Hurt, whoever, becomes something in this league, aided by strong coaching. Success stories with late round picks seem to be long overdue and a thing of the past in Washington.

    It's time for the coaching to prove their worth and accept some of the blame if things go wrong this year along the offensive line.
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  1. NFL Offensive Lines by Draft Position
    By Lanky Livingston in forum Sons of Washington
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 08-07-12, 11:46 AM

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