A Burgundy and Gold Obsession
'Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.' - Groucho Marx

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  1. #1
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    Baylor

    Default What do you think will happen to us if the Euro fails?

    I fear that we will try to help prop the Euro up. Your thoughts.
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    It all depends on when it happens, and which party has power.

    If the Democrats are in power, and Obama wins reelection, then your scenario will absolutely play out. We'll borrow more money from China to give them that extra bit of a grip on the noose, and they'll gladly walk us to the edge of the cliff to hang ourselves when the Euro still collapses anyway.

    If Mitt Romney wins the election, the EU probably won't even bother knocking, because they'll know better. Then when the Euro collapses anyway, we'll try to buy into more sustainable markets like precious metals to prop up and strengthen the dollar. Then we'll go on a worldwide "I told you so" mission about why the dollar should always remain the world currency.

    Either way, the Euro is well on its way to collapsing, and no amount of bailout money is going to save it. Especially with how unstable the European economy is right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RG3 Fan View Post
    I fear that we will try to help prop the Euro up. Your thoughts.
    can't say....sure hope American banks are divesting themselves of European bank holdings!
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    I think the Euro will start falling when Greece finally implodes from so much debt and everyone expecting a handout. In no particlaur order we will see France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all go down. While that happens we will see China have the yuan take over as the world currency. The dollar will then be in a free fall with our massive debt. Expect more billionaires leave the US.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedskinfaninOC View Post
    I think the Euro will start falling when Greece finally implodes from so much debt and everyone expecting a handout. In no particlaur order we will see France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all go down. While that happens we will see China have the yuan take over as the world currency. The dollar will then be in a free fall with our massive debt. Expect more billionaires leave the US.
    I partially agree with this. As far as the collapses go, you have it pegged exactly right. The order is easy enough to pick out if you look at all the facts though. After Greece will be Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, then Ireland. But the Yuan will never be the world currency. Not only are there too many things in play that would prevent it from happening any time soon, if ever (which I simply don't see happening) but a whole lot more drastic things would have to happen. The Dollar would have to completely collapse and be worthless, which will only happen in the event of a second civil war (which I have been saying for 2 years is inevitable on our current path), or the Democrats wold have to make gains in the coming election, paired with Obama being reelected, and the spending and printing of more worthless money would have to stay at least on par with where it is now.

    But if all of those things happen (Obama winning, Democrats making large enough gains, spending and money printing staying pace or accelerating, and a second civil war) the dollar would be worth less than the paper and ink used to print it.

    People like to think that because China holds most of our debts and bonds, that they could collapse our economy at any time. The only problem with that logic, is the fact that we are their biggest buyer. If you cut off the country that buys 85% of your exports, what does that do for you? China didn't get where they are by being stupid. It would take a catastrophic failure in leadership for them to bite the hand that feeds them. We could collapse them just as easy as they could collapse us, and I'm convinced that we both know that, or one of us would have made the move already.
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    A few years ago I read a quote from Obama that basically said that he felt like the dollar should not necessarily be the world currency. Not sure what he meant by that, but that quote coupled with his statement to Putin about how much more cooperative he can become after his reelection concern me deeply. I know that he will be hindered by a Republican House or a Republican Senate, but he can do a lot of damage as a unleashed chief executive. He wants his legacy to be as a transformational President. I don't like the transformation that he would like to make.
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    As a European who is an offical Euro septic can I say I hate no loathe the concept of the Euro.

    It was/is a bad idea on so many levels.

    It was sold to the masses as "great idea" no need to change your currency to go on holiday etc

    But it is a bad idea that has two fundamental flaws.

    Before you have monetary union you need as close as you can get to it

    1. uniformity of taxation. You cannot have member states with such widely differing levels of taxation. I'll give you a simple example buy a litre of fuel in Northern Ireland pay (i'll use dollars to make it easier) $2. Go 5 miles over the border to the South pay $1.20. Because the British Govt has mopre tax on petrol than anyone else (up near 75% of the price). Uniformity of taxation makes your money worth the same regardless of where you are. Europe is too big and so far apart in taxation terms for it to work.

    3. Standard of social care. No point in having an NHS in Britain and nothing in Poland. You only encourage people to migrate to where there is better social care.

    The Euro or single currency has not even attempted to tackle those two so it is doomed to fail.

    Now as to what happens WHEN it crumbles. I think America should pick and chose who it helps. Remember Iraq and Afghanistan who has contributed to help you? Far too often the Rest of Europe has castigated your country for your actions but might come looking for a bail out. I do not think you would suffer by staying out of it.

    This crap about if your nopt in it you lose is just that crap. Do Europeans buy American goods, do they eat at McDonalds and Burger King and do theybuy Microsoft and Apple. Of course we do and will continue to do so.
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