A Burgundy and Gold Obsession
'Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.' - Groucho Marx

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  1. #1
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    Florida State

    Default Rasmussen Presidential Poll 5/11, Romney 50%, Obama 43%

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

    I'm kind of surprised at how big his reported lead is. Also, I haven't heard this being reported by many tv stations or news outlets. That part doesn't surprise me.

    If accurate, this is Romney's biggest lead yet.

    Thoughts? Is this accurate?
    Last edited by McD5; 05-11-12 at 10:47 PM.
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    Army

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    Quote Originally Posted by McD5 View Post
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

    I'm kind of surprised at how big his reported lead is. Also, I haven't heard this being reported by many tv stations or news outlets. That part doesn't surprise me.

    If accurate, this is Romney's biggest lead yet.

    Thoughts? Is this accurate?
    Of course it's accurate. It's the same exact polling agency Democrats were gloating about for the past 4 years every time it said anything favorable about Obama, so it's just as accurate now.

    You have to consider though, Obama just endorsed gay marriage, so the spread on this could get closer, or miles apart after the dust clears.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extreme View Post
    Of course it's accurate. It's the same exact polling agency Democrats were gloating about for the past 4 years every time it said anything favorable about Obama, so it's just as accurate now.

    You have to consider though, Obama just endorsed gay marriage, so the spread on this could get closer, or miles apart after the dust clears.
    And it's not over, either.
    Expect Obama's next campaign gimmick to be a statement how he favors illegal immigration.
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    Army

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fear The Spear View Post
    And it's not over, either.
    Expect Obama's next campaign gimmick to be a statement how he favors illegal immigration.
    So true. Me and my dad actually talked about the same thing yesterday and said we should get some posterboard and make a checklist of every gimmick Obama will use. Then we each have to put a dollar down on which ones we think he'll go for, and $2 on ones he won't do. We have to bet on each thing, and to the victor goes the spoils I haven't gotten around to making a list yet, I'm gonna need a lot of paper.

    I figure he'll try to legalize pot by Labor Day
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  5. #5

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    George Mason

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    I'm sure it's an accurate number for the polling they've done this month.

    I'm also sure it tells us absolutely nothing about what the numbers are going to be in November
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    Rasmussen consistently polls about 5% more conservative than other polls. As of this morning Rasmussen has Romney ahead 48 to 44 while Gallup has Obama ahead 46 to 45. I'm not sure any we can glean much from this yet.

    More importantly is how each state is polling. Right now, according to RCP, Obama has the lead in states totaling 253 delegates to Romney's 170. I still think Romney has a bigger hill to climb. It's tough to unseat a President who's not wildly unpopular.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extreme View Post
    Of course it's accurate. It's the same exact polling agency Democrats were gloating about for the past 4 years every time it said anything favorable about Obama, so it's just as accurate now.
    The Dems would gloat about polling ahead on Rasmussen because it's results generally lean Republican. When the polls all start favoring Romney I think we can call that a significant shift.
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    Florida Atlantic

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    tshile has it right - polls in May have pretty much zero bearing on what happens in November. Pointless to even look at them, really.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lanky Livingston View Post
    tshile has it right - polls in May have pretty much zero bearing on what happens in November. Pointless to even look at them, really.
    Perhaps. But it is interesting to watch how polls trend. Romney has been trending up. Whether that is because he's now out of the Primary Quagmire or because Obama came out in favor of gay marriage or something else remains to be seen, but I do think the rise and fall of polls are interesting to watch, even this early.
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    George Mason

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    edit: I see Henry beat me to it

    I stand a tad bit corrected
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationw...election,_2008

    those are polling results for the 2008 campaigns.

    while any individual poll cannot be considered telling, the overall trend was.

    of course this is just one year so who the hell knows. but it's definitely interesting (for me) to see who had the numbers for each candidate from may through november.

    McCain was winning some polls as late as September.

    But Henry is right - its the state by state numbers that matter. McCain only lost by 7 % - not a huge number, certainly not a 'land slide'. But when you look at electoral votes Obama had over 2x as many - which certainly is a landslide.
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    Army

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    I find it comical, and detrimental to their image, that RCP has Obama destroying Romney. It simply won't happen. Especially when you start to factor in the heavily anti-gay marriage states, and swing states he may have swung the opposite way with his support of gay marriage.

    He will not win a single state in the bible belt, period. That gives Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Mississippi to Romney.

    Then you factor in states that almost always vote Republican - West Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah and Alaska. Romney has it in the bag, it's his to lose.

    Here's how I currently have the map looking on election night.......


    285-253 Romney. He will take either Ohio or Pennsylvania, but not both. Right now, based on history, I have him taking Ohio, with Pennsylvania going to Obama.
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    Ex, RCP isn't running an opinion piece. They are reporting poll numbers. If the polls change so will their map. Right now your map has basically every single battleground state going to Romney, and then he makes it by 15 votes. I'd hardly call that 'in the bag.'
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    George Mason

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    also virginia is becoming more and more democratic. i think it's as much a swing state as any state at this point

    which sucks because that means more campaigning here than usual
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    Quote Originally Posted by tshile View Post
    also virginia is becoming more and more democratic. i think it's as much a swing state as any state at this point

    which sucks because that means more campaigning here than usual
    For better or worse, NoVa is becoming more influential as it spreads out, and it's largely liberal. Still, I was pretty shocked VA went for Obama in '08. And he's polling (very slightly) ahead here now, though the latest poll was taken before the gay marriage stuff so who knows.

    In any case I don't think Virginia is a gimme for either candidate at this point.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry View Post
    For better or worse, NoVa is becoming more influential as it spreads out, and it's largely liberal. Still, I was pretty shocked VA went for Obama in '08. And he's polling (very slightly) ahead here now, though the latest poll was taken before the gay marriage stuff so who knows.

    In any case I don't think Virginia is a gimme for either candidate at this point.

    stuff happens when everyone within a scuds throw of DC is on the government teat!

    and the McDonnell and 2010 elections symbolize what?

    IMO.....the real unemployment and inflation rates are going to drive the 2012 elections. not liberalism or conservatism. I have many Liberal friends who have shifted their positions considerably...in fact, one of my best friends is a NY Liberal who found the unemployment line rather un-romantic....they'll only admit it privately of course....
    Last edited by fansince62; 05-14-12 at 05:52 PM.
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    Army

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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    stuff happens when everyone within a scuds throw of DC is on the government teat!

    and the McDonnell and 2010 elections symbolize what?

    IMO.....the real unemployment and inflation rates are going to drive the 2012 elections. not liberalism or conservatism. I have many Liberal friends who have shifted their positions considerably...in fact, one of my best friends is a NY Liberal who found the unemployment line rather un-romantic....they'll only admit it privately of course....
    Exactly. People talk a lot when they're in a crowd, the real talking is done in the privacy of the voting booth.

    As for Henry's remarks about Virginia becoming more Democratic, not true at all. NoVa is just growing in population, and since it's loaded heavily with Liberals, it skews results. If you look at precinct by precinct results, Virginia is nowhere close to becoming Democratic. And with all of the religious folks in the state on both sides, this state is a gimme for Romney now, given Obama's recent remarks. As we get farther out and more polls are done, I'm positive they will reflect that.
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    per previous...I'm more interested in how the Senate elections go. Assuming the House stays with current majority....I want a Senate that actually passes a budget and defeats every insane economic move (including healthcare) this neophyte President tries to make (should he be reelected).
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    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62 View Post
    stuff happens when everyone within a scuds throw of DC is on the government teat!
    Right. Lots of military around here. Not sure what the relevance of that is.

    It's a growing area and it's largely liberal.

    and the McDonnell and 2010 elections symbolize what?
    A bad mid-term election for the President. It happens. It could mean a dramatic shift, or not. Given that a week ago Obama was polling a few points ahead of Romney here I'd say a vote from two years ago is about as relevant as the results of the '08 election.

    IMO.....the real unemployment and inflation rates are going to drive the 2012 elections. not liberalism or conservatism.
    That's totally reasonable and I agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by fansince62
    I have many Liberal friends who have shifted their positions considerably...in fact, one of my best friends is a NY Liberal who found the unemployment line rather un-romantic....they'll only admit it privately of course....
    Quote Originally Posted by Extreme View Post
    Exactly. People talk a lot when they're in a crowd, the real talking is done in the privacy of the voting booth.

    As for Henry's remarks about Virginia becoming more Democratic, not true at all. NoVa is just growing in population, and since it's loaded heavily with Liberals, it skews results. If you look at precinct by precinct results, Virginia is nowhere close to becoming Democratic. And with all of the religious folks in the state on both sides, this state is a gimme for Romney now, given Obama's recent remarks. As we get farther out and more polls are done, I'm positive they will reflect that.
    Maybe there really is a silent majority just itching to vote against Obama. Maybe Obama's support of gay marriage will lose him ten points in Virginia. Maybe 'stuff happens' because there are government workers in NoVA (whatever that means.) Any and all of that may very well happen. But this thread is about poll numbers. Tangible evidence, and what it means and such. The poll numbers at the present time are not suggesting what you are suggesting. There's simply not that much to read into it at the moment.

    If you guys want to talk about personal impressions and gut feelings go right ahead. That's not really what I'm talking about.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry View Post
    Right. Lots of military around here. Not sure what the relevance of that is.

    It's a growing area and it's largely liberal.



    A bad mid-term election for the President. It happens. It could mean a dramatic shift, or not. Given that a week ago Obama was polling a few points ahead of Romney here I'd say a vote from two years ago is about as relevant as the results of the '08 election.



    That's totally reasonable and I agree.





    Maybe there really is a silent majority just itching to vote against Obama. Maybe Obama's support of gay marriage will lose him ten points in Virginia. Maybe 'stuff happens' because there are government workers in NoVA (whatever that means.) Any and all of that may very well happen. But this thread is about poll numbers. Tangible evidence, and what it means and such. The poll numbers at the present time are not suggesting what you are suggesting. There's simply not that much to read into it at the moment.

    If you guys want to talk about personal impressions and gut feelings go right ahead. That's not really what I'm talking about.

    the whole DC area is fed by the Federal government. that's what it means...no more. no less.

    it wasn't a "bad" mid-term. it was a repudiation throughout all levels of government.

    polls are one thing..and change all the time. I made my position clear. if voters vote on the state of the economy and Obama's ability to fix it....he's doomed.
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    Baylor

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    Polls really don't mean that much right now. Too much can happen between now and November. I think it will be razor thin either way.

    Watch out though if Obama gets reelected. He will be unleashed and his extreme liberal view will really come out. I think this will especially be true with foreign policy. Relations with Russia(capitulation), Israel(lack of support), and world monetary policy. We have seen hints of this from comments that he has made in his first term. If reelected he will not feel accountable to anyone and he will feel free to do what he truly wants to do. I am saying this as a Democrat leaning Independent.
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