Severe/Extreme/Unusual Weather Thread

I am curious about the tides. It is a full moon, so will Sandy cause tide levels to be like Isabel ( 7-7.5 ft ) or something less?

In Yorktown, tides will be higher than normal, but not like Isabel. Probably about two-thirds of what that monster brought to Virginia a few years ago.

Burgundy Burner said:

In Yorktown, tides will be higher than normal, but not like Isabel. Probably about two-thirds of what that monster brought to Virginia a few years ago.

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I could almost kiss you for that forecast. Lol

Well, the latest forecast for Virginia beach just got horrible. A few hours ago, it was no big deal. The new forecast according to the local guys is 60-70 mph winds and 10+ inches of rain. At high tide. With a full moon. ****. My house will flood at 7 inches, it nearly happened with Ernesto a while back. I hope they're wrong.

It's not wrong. The good news is that you will actually be spared the worst of the storm. The problem with Frankenstorm/Sandy is the sheer size of it in the coming days. When you factor in a very deep trough merging with the system, it is a recipe for disaster. That is why the Perfect Storm was something of a blessing in disguise - it was offshore the entire time. Coastal communties took a big hit, but it would've been even worse if that monster went inland.

Up here, we are going to have four days of it being very close by with copious rain amounts and heavy winds. I'm already making plans for being without power for serveral days - maybe longer. Still need to find a reliable place that will provide a steady stream of ice. The medical center will monitor things too - just glad that they are allowing me to stay at home for now. If that happens though, Ricky will go to the vet's boarding place - they are ready for storm events.

Big update coming at around 5am. I'll post it here. Each model should be in range - short term and long term models. For those who will be affected - hoping for the best. Be safe.

My concern is it is slow moving, so the constant strong wind with all the rain will uproot a lot of trees. For Extreme and I the tides on Sunday will be when it gets interesting.

At work we moved most of our inventory to high ground.

You're exactly right, the timing of it with the tides could be the difference between bad and catastrophic. Patrick Rockey was on the radio talking about it, and they asked him what we could expect and what to prepare for, and his exact words were you need to prepare for the absolute worst case scenario, because this thing could be about as bad as it gets. Definitely not comforting to hear coming from a meteorologist, but especially from the one in the area that's known as the cool headed and non reactive one.

Frankenstorm/Sandy Update

Greetings to everyone. The storm is getting closer with each passing hour and today is the day to make final preparations if you are able to do so. Let’s get to the latest.

Sandy is continuing a northward trek and is currently affecting the southeast coastal areas with rain, winds, high tides, and beach erosion. The dire warnings of yesterday are still in place – feel free to re-read that summary when you have a chance.

There are no changes to the forecast for the upper Delmarva, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York. Yesterday, I mentioned that the time frame of greatest impact for this system would be from Sunday night to Tuesday night and that guidance continues. Landfall is expected late Monday afternoon somewhere around Wildwood, NJ to Ocean City, NJ. By early Tuesday morning, the storm could be directly over Philadelphia and over north-central Pennsylvania by early Wednesday morning.

One more item of interest. Sandy is now a tropical storm, but it is expected to regain hurricane strength by tomorrow. Stay safe.

Watching all the channels, they all say something different on tide levels. All we can do Extreme is be prepared.

Yeah, I was noticing that. I think just like with anything else around here it's a crap shoot. I've seen anywhere from 6ft above to 9.5ft above, which is a lot bigger margin than most people realize, it can change a lot of things.

Good afternoon everyone. Let’s get right to the details of Sandy. It is a hurricane again and it should maintain this level of strength until landfall. There are some changes and here is the latest.

All barrier islands from Maryland to New England could be cut off from the mainland for several days. Heed any and all evacuation orders. Power outages in affected regions can expect to reach about 60% to 75% of any given area. Some may not have power restored for several days and perhaps to one week. School closings will be announced by local and county boards. Numerous road closures from flooding rains and fallen trees are to be expected. Roofs may sustain heavy damage from prolonged winds and rains. Airport delays and closures will affect the eastern seaboard until Thursday. Western Virginia, western Maryland, and western Pennsylvania could receive one to two feet of snow. Coastal flooding, massive beach erosion, and tidal flooding will be continuous until late Wednesday or early Thursday. Washed out bridges, life-threatening floods, and major wind damage will occur. Several states will be under heightened states of emergency.

Sandy will make landfall in extreme southern New Jersey sometime Monday evening. Sandy is a slow moving storm and the Delmarva Peninsula, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Long Island can expect heavy winds and rains on Sunday evening, Monday, Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday. By Wednesday night, these areas will begin to see improving conditions. Rain will continue to fall on Thursday though, but not in heavier amounts. Total rainfall amounts by Thursday could range from eight to twenty inches – depending on location. Winds will be strong, gusty, tropical storm force, and hurricane force from Sunday night to late Wednesday afternoon.
For the Outer Banks and Southeastern Virginia, heavy rains and above normal tides will continue through Tuesday. Rain totals will range from six to ten inches. There will be some road closures from fallen trees and flooding. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel system could be closed for an extended period of time. Too, the Chesapeake Bay Bridge could be closed for an extended period of time.

Any remaining preparations should be rushed to completion by no later than 12pm EDT on Sunday for the Delmarva northward and by 8pm EDT today for areas to the south. Bring in all lawn furniture and any outdoor items that are not heavy. Bring your pets indoors for the duration of this storm.

Folks, it’s game on. Please be safe and see you as we go along.

Sunday Frankenstorm/Sandy Update

Good morning to all. Sandy continues her northward track and is running parallel to the U.S. East Coast. She is maintaining her hurricane strength at this hour and only slight strengthening is expected before making landfall. There are a few changes and some items of interest have caught my attention. Here are the details.

The first thing that jumped out at me this morning was the sheer size of Sandy. Tropical storm force winds now extend up to 520 miles from the center. This is the widest range of such winds that I’ve seen in forty years of tracking tropical systems. Sandy’s projected path now places landfall just north of Atlantic City to the southern half of Long Beach Island, NJ. The timeframe will be the early morning hours of Tuesday. Sandy should lose tropical characteristics about twelve hours before striking land, but the winds will still be at hurricane force. At that juncture, Sandy becomes “Frankenstorm”.

The advice from last night continues to apply, so heed those warnings accordingly.

There is some good news for the Delmarva, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York. The system will be departing a bit faster than what was expected just yesterday. Wednesday will see less rain and wind and Thursday will bring calm conditions – a welcomed change of events. As a result, rain totals are expected to be a bit less than reported and the most difficult period of time will be “limited” to Sunday night through Tuesday night.

Updates are coming as we go along.

Hey BB question for ya. Please excuse my ignorance here, I am going to ask some dumb questions. I have two photo shoots going Mon-Wed in Lewisburg, WV. Lewisburg is apparently going to get 1 foot+ of snow, so we are trying to figure out if we cancel Tues-Wed, just Tues, cancel nothing, etc. My question is two fold: first, the air temperatures on weather.com are forecasting a high of 35 and a low of 34; I understand how snow can be formed and come down, but how can there be that much accumulation? Secondly, dovetailing with that, we all had 75 degree temp here last week, won't it take a while for the ground to chill sufficiently to allow for that much accumulation?

G, we had a similar situation one year ago tomorrow in this region. It was in the 70s one week, then we had "Snowtober". That being said, you are looking at a situation where the elevation plays a signficant role and the solar insolation is less of a factor than just ten days ago. With those temps, the roads will be clear where plowing takes place and slushy where plows are less frequent. Driving in either condition is not difficult at all.

How familiar are you with the area? If you know it like the back of your hand, then you should be fine. If the terrain is foreign to you, then it is a judgment call. If the decision is a go, take the usual supplies in your trunk - just in case.

Gotcha. I am supposed to head over there Tues to do a little training, but that may be put on hold. I am going to call my lead photographer Monday to find out what the situation is like and then make a judgment call.

Thanks for the advice.

Good morning everyone. Let’s get right to it. First, Sandy has strengthened with winds at 85 mph and more strengthening is likely prior to making landfall. Sandy could have winds of around 100 mph when it strikes land somewhere between Ocean City, NJ and Sea Isle City, NJ. Let’s get right to the particulars.

First, Sandy’s barometric pressure is now at its lowest point thus far – 946 MB (27.94 inches) – and that is an incredibly strong storm. When Sandy makes landfall later in the day, this could represent the lowest pressure ever recorded in the state of NJ. Winds of hurricane force extend out to 175 miles and tropical storm winds extend out to 485 miles. Sandy will maintain her hurricane strength for at least twenty-four hours after striking land. In other words, winds of 70 to 90 mph will be common throughout the Delmarva, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Long Island. Late Tuesday night to Wednesday night, winds will average 45 to 65 mph and Thursday will be a transition to much calmer conditions.

Second, rainfall totals by late Wednesday will exceed ten inches in most places with maximum amounts to twenty inches in various locations. It would not be surprising to see a few locations approaching two feet of rain.

Third, tides along the Delmarva could average five to eight feet above normal. The entire Jersey shore could see tidal surges of seven to twelve feet with isolated locations reaching fifteen feet. These surges will cause the entire barrier chain to be cut off from the mainland for extended periods of time. The surges could reach up to twenty miles inland in various locations. Long Island will have tides that reach five to nine feet above normal.

Fourth, the hazards are numerous. Life threatening floods are to be expected. Damaging winds for the next three days are a given. Road closures will be numerous and several states could close all roads to traffic with the exception of emergency vehicles and work crews only. Many homes along the coastal communities will be destroyed and/or swept out to sea. Fallen trees will be a norm on the scale of “massive”. Damage to homes, businesses, roads, and vehicles will be too numerous to count from these trees. Rising water from major river systems and tributaries will occur well into the weekend. Beach erosion will be massive and most (if not all) boardwalk structures will be totally destroyed along the Delmarva, Jersey Shore, and Long Island. Widespread power outages will become common. Of the sixty million citizens that are directly affected, at least forty-five million will lose power for at least three to five days. In some cases, power will not be restored for at least two weeks.

Updates will continue for as long as I am able to do. If I lose power, updates will come via my facebook page…

http://www.facebook.com/ricky.bengalcat

There is a team in place to help with the updates if I lose power. I will call them via cell phone and they will post the info. Those updates will be short and brief for obvious reasons.

Ok everyone, it is truly “game on”. Please be safe and take all precautions. We’ll get through this monster and have many stories to tell in the future. For now, stay safe. Stay at home or in a safe structure. Heed all warnings from local, state, and federal officials. Stay informed with updates on the TV, radio, and internet.

We’ll get through Sandy/Frankenstorm and with the most positive tone I can muster – see you as we go along.

Jeebus. There's a blizzard warning in effect for Greenbrier Co, WV, which happens to be the site of two teams' photo shoots for the next three days. Or it was. Guess I'm canceling those this morning.

Luckily haven't lost power. No internet right now. Waiting for next high tide, which should be the worst one. Then hopefully can get to work.
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Yeah, with the snow, a hurricane, and everything else, this will go into the history books with ease. Somehow, some way, I really wish this thing would spin out to sea. I know it won't happen.

My cranberry farmer friends spent the last four days fortifying a large set of bogs that are located near tidal water. That levee is a mile and a half long and they are not optimistic. If too much salt water seeps in, the bog is lost for several years.

Good morning. Raining pretty good out here in NoVA but the winds havent picked up yet. We're sleeping in the basement but we may move up to the main level if we get significant flooding. Its gonna be interesting ...

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