Severe/Extreme/Unusual Weather Thread

Burgundy Burner said:

This dude is finally a TS. Press. continues to slowly rise, but this sucker contains a lot of moiture - going to be a lot of flooding. The good news is that some of the drought-stricken areas are going to get a lot of rain in the coming days.

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Yeah, but the flash flooding could be even more damaging.

No doubt. NOLA has measured anywhere from 17 to 23 inches of rain throughout the city since yesterday afternoon. We're going to see a lot of totals like that in LA and MS - maybe AR too.

Just wanted to post this message to everyone along the eastern seaboard regarding Hurricane Sandy. This will be a most unusual storm and the effects will be severe in some locations.

An upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be phased into Sandy and the storm will become extra-tropical by Saturday – if not sooner. After the transition is fully complete, the merged storm will be drawn more to the northwest and could come ashore anywhere between the Eastern Shore of Virginia to New Jersey. The system will continue to grow in size to a very large nor’easter and it will impact most of the U.S. east coast. If this sounds familiar, then your memory is a good one. This scenario is eerily similar to the “Perfect Storm” of 1991. Like this system, the Perfect Storm affected the same areas in late October, 1991. I believe everyone in the east can appreciate the magnitude of it now.

High winds and flooding rains could impact the South Atlantic, Mid –Atlantic, and Northeast for several days. Widespread damage, power outages, and fallen trees are probably a given with this storm. A trough moving in from the west will only exacerbate the problems and “Perfect Storm II” could become the worst nor’easter of all time. PS I stayed just offshore. PS II, according to all model guidance platforms, takes the storm inland around the eastern shore.

If you have property on the coast, board it up and take the usual precautions. The Outer Banks could be decimated. Virginia Beach may lose many homes. Ditto for the Delmarva, the Jersey Shore, and Long Island. My friends, this is not an exaggeration. Beach erosion will be substantial. Inland flooding and damaging will winds will bring down trees and power lines. All NWS regions along the east coast are launching balloons every hour for the next few days and this is highly unusual. In other words, PS II is serious enough for all of us.

The time of impact should begin on Saturday for the Carolinas, Virginia, and the Delmarva. The Delaware Valley to New England will be impacted starting on Sunday. It could take several days until the effects of PS II passes. If you think that this storm could spin out to sea, think again. There is a huge blocking feature in the central Atlantic (Tropical Storm Tony will be absorbed by this trough) and this deep trough is going nowhere.

Hey BB, according to the models you are watching, how will the Williamsburg area be impacted?

It could get flooding - including tidal. Lots of rain and wind from Saturday night through Monday, maybe Tuesday too - depending on how much wrap-around moisture is in the system. Power outages and downed trees will be a problem too.

So I move from southern coastal SC to Akron Ohio, and now a hurricane is heading up the east coast, then it's gonna hang a hard left producing wind, lots of rain, and maybe lots of snow. Who knew I would have to watch out for snowicanes here, way to break me in easy for my first winter LOL

Goaldeje said:

Hey BB, according to the models you are watching, how will the Williamsburg area be impacted?

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Williamsburg is far enough inland that tidal flooding not an issue. Depending on rain fall you could have flooding from runoff.

Local forecasters are playing this up, guess since a quiet year. Will wait till morning to see impact for this area. Most feel it will be a bad nor'easter.

Hey, I can make it change course if you want me to.

on the radio they were saying impact for northern va may be as early as monday. has the track/movement changed or is it really going to take a few days to get from southern VA to northern VA?
(or are they using different models?)

tshile said:

on the radio they were saying impact for northern va may be as early as monday. has the track/movement changed or is it really going to take a few days to get from southern VA to northern VA?
(or are they using different models?)

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It'll hit Virginia on Monday? Mondays are bad enough without having a Sandy Vagina, er, Virginia.

They said it may hit by Monday.
'They' don't exactly have a proven track record in predicting the weather though...

I'm not gonna lie -- and forgive me -- I'd love to see this storm coincide with a good strong blast of arctic temps. Now that I have the Wrangler to get me around in it, I'm PUMPED for massive snowfalls.

As it is, I guess I'll be doing grand jury duty listening to the rain pound the roof. Such is life.

China said:

It'll hit Virginia on Monday? Mondays are bad enough without having a Sandy Vagina, er, Virginia.

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You bust me up.

OK, so last year on October 29, 2011 I married my wife in Thurmont, MD. The seasonal avg is 63 degrees. We had 6-8 inches of snow! It was an outdoor wedding and we had to move things around at the last minute and she was 2 hours late.

Fast forward to our 1 year anniversary...

On October 29, 2012 there is a projected storm of the century bearing down on us.

The 18z models are in and there are a few changes. “Frankenstorm” (as it is now known) continues to put the east coast on alert. Here are the details.

First, the storm is now projected to make landfall somewhere between the lower Delmarva and Atlantic City. At the time of impact, the winds will be clocking in at 75 – 90 mph. The shorelines to 200 miles inland will feel the brunt of this system. For three days winds will average 40 – 55 mph with heavy rains. As result, there will be massive damage, life-threatening floods, road closures, washed out bridges, and widespread power outages. Big cities along the I-95 corridor will see major damage, cancelled flights, closed airports, and emergency procedures in place. The timeline for Frankenstorm’s worst impact will be from late Saturday to early Wednesday. Many areas will receive five to ten inches of rain with locally heavier amounts possible.

This system is shaping up to be the strongest nor’easter/hurricane hybrid ever. Make sure to have all preparations completed no later than Saturday afternoon. More updates as we go along.

This storm better stay the hell away from Pittsburgh! I am strongly contemplating a trip out to PA for the game Sunday!

Burgundy Burner said:

Virginia Beach may lose many homes.

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Only in Sandbridge. Who loses them in a solid thunderstorm

As for the rest of it......yawn. I don't imagine we'll see any impact more than we do from any other late season storm. Virginia Beach is pretty resistant to this kind of weather. Others will be dealing with significant impacts, but it won't do anything here outside of the Sandbridge area. For the rest of us, it will be business as usual, especially considering the bulk of our dealings with it will be from the southwest quadrant, which packs less punch than my grandma.

0z models continue to sync at this late hour, but a consensus continues to prevail. The storm path has narrowed a bit to just south of Atlantic City to Ocean City, MD. Frankestorm will be even larger than projected, especially with the full absorption of the Gulf of Mexico upper level low now fully complete - half a day earlier than expected.

Updates on the 6z models coming early in the morning.

One item to add - tidal flooding could actually be a problem in Williamsburg. Frankenstorm is arriving during a full moon and tides are always higher during that astronomical cycle. The best advice is to keep up to date with statements from the local weather service office.

Good morning to all. Here is the latest on “Frankenstorm” – the name given to the impending nor’easter – or will it be a nor’easter? Hurricane Sandy is now expected to maintain tropical characteristics until it makes landfall, but there is a small chance that it could become extra-tropical just prior to moving inland, so the “Frankenstorm” label could still be in play. The 6z models have fully synced and here is the latest.

Sandy’s size continues to grow – this is a result of drawing in the upper level low from the Gulf of Mexico late yesterday – a full twelve hours earlier than expected. The projected path largely spares the Outer Banks, Virginia Beach, and the lower eastern shore points. However, those locations can expect to receive high winds and plenty of rain this weekend and on Monday. From Ocean City, MD northward to New York City, it is “game on”. Sandy is now expected to make landfall near the mouth of the Delaware River on Monday – sometime around mid-day as a Category One hurricane. Baltimore, Dover, Wilmington, Atlantic City, Toms River, Cherry Hill, Philadelphia, Trenton, Valley Forge, and surrounding areas are under the greatest threat from Sandy. By mid-week, the system will be over central Pennsylvania with major flooding in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York.

Sandy, or what’s left of it on Monday, will merge with a deep trough coming from the west and this will enhance the winds and rain in the aforementioned regions. From late Sunday night to late Tuesday night, winds will average 40 – 55 mph with heavy rains. As result, there will be massive damage, life-threatening floods, road closures, washed out bridges, and widespread power outages. The big cities along the I-95 corridor (Baltimore, Philadelphia, Trenton, and NYC) will see major damage, cancelled flights, closed airports, and emergency procedures in place. Many areas will receive five to ten inches of rain with locally heavier amounts possible.

This system is shaping up to be the strongest nor’easter/hurricane hybrid ever. Make sure to have all preparations completed no later than Saturday afternoon. More updates as we go along.

Told ya